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North Korean Missiles Are Attacking Ukraine: What If One Hit a NATO Member?

HWASONG-18 ICBM North Korea (1)
HWASONG-18 ICBM North Korea. Image Credit: North Korean state media.

North Korea and Russia are part of the new Axis of Evil that aims to counter and even eclipse the Western world order led by the United States. Not only are the North Koreans sending troops to fight in Ukraine, but they have been supplying Russia with missiles to launch against Ukrainian cities and military targets in the Donbas region where most fighting is taking place.

U.S. Intelligence Claims North Korean Missiles Are Hitting Ukraine

In May, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) confirmed that Russia was using North Korean missiles in Ukraine. The DIA said debris from Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) missiles were found throughout the war-torn country.

The DIA claimed that “Through careful analysis of open-source imagery, DIA analysts confirms the debris found in Kharkiv on Jan. 2, 2024, is missile debris from a DPRK short-range missile. The report provides a comparative analysis of publicly available images of North Korean missile debris and known North Korean missiles. The report shows that the missile debris in Ukraine is almost certainly of a North Korean ballistic missile.”

Ukrainian Intelligence Has Determined the Same Thing

Ukrainian intelligence analysts have echoed these findings. After examining a missile that hit a structure in the city of Kharkiv earlier this year, a Ukrainian researcher carefully examined parts of the missile all the way down to the screws and parts of tiny computer chips. She found some wreckage that had a letter from the North Korean alphabet. She also discovered a number that was displayed on a panel. It was “112” which corresponds to the DPRK “Juche” calendar that signifies the year 2023.

The Ukrainians believe that Russia has fired dozens of DPRK missiles that have killed more than 24 people and injured at least 70 more.

British Think Tanks Are Tracking These DPRK Missiles Too

Joseph Byrne, a North Korea analyst at the international security think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), couldn’t believe it.

“I never thought I would see North Korean ballistic missiles being used to kill people on European soil,” Byrne said. He and his team at RUSI have been tracking the shipment of North Korean weapons to Russia. This started before DPRK’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un forged a mutual defense pact with Vladimir Putin.

Russian Shipping Is Hauling North Korean Arms

Using satellite imagery, employees at RUSI have “been able to observe four Russian cargo ships shuttling back and forth between North Korea and a Russian military port, loaded with hundreds of containers at a time.”

DPRK Missiles Have Western Components

That’s not all. There has been another alarming discovery. The missiles from the DPRK used in Ukraine have components from the United States and other Western countries. The Kyiv-based Independent Anti-Corruption Commission found that “a number of Western components in a North Korean missile that was shot down in central Ukraine’s Poltava region during early September 2024. Inspection of the missile confirmed the presence of microelectronics manufactured in the US, the UK, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. It was particularly striking to note that many of these components had been produced as recently as 2022 or 2023.”

How Does the International Community Stop This?

What can Ukraine do about this? Not much it turns out.

The North Koreans have decided to play for keeps in the invaded country. They love the hard currency and the goodwill Kim Jong Un enjoys by playing nice with the Russians. This also gives the North Koreans combat experience with their missiles and soldiers. The United States knows it is happening but can only observe this unholy alliance between North Korean and Russia.

This raises the question of further escalation by North Korea in Ukraine. What if a DPRK projectile landed in a NATO country?

False Reports of Russian Missiles Hitting Poland

In November 2022, an Associated Press reporter named James LaPorta filed a story in which he claimed that a Russian missile had crossed into Poland and killed two civilians. I remember this report and I believed it since it came from the AP. Other outlets printed it as fact, too. I even tweeted that Poland could strike back. Many people did the same. It turns out the anonymously-sourced information was false, and the AP took it down, but it almost sparked a wider war.

Escalation of the War

A North Korean missile launch that landed in NATO territory would become a significant development and escalation in the war. It could be considered an accident if it happened, but it could spark some form of retaliation, especially if it landed in Poland or another hawkish country.

What Would NATO Do?

Sweden, a NATO member, would likely bring its diplomats home from North Korea in protest. The United States has no embassy in Pyongyang, but it could raise the alert level on the DMZ. NATO could call a special meeting to ponder what to do in return. The United States has 100,000 troops in Europe, and they would likely pay close attention to what NATO decided to do.

Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin – Unholy Partnership

But North Korea is far away from Europe, and there is no way NATO could strike militarily against Pyongyang. Kim and Putin know this and are likely laughing and figuratively giving high-fives to each other. There will be more strikes from North Korean missiles into Ukraine, and one could perhaps hit a NATO country, although it appears that these munitions are short-range for the time being.

But the North could supply larger missiles with longer ranges that could reach a NATO member. The alliance should come up with a contingency plan in the event this happens. The missile sharing between Russia and the DPRK shows that the war in Ukraine is taking on an international dimension as it enters its third year. This was not supposed to happen but here we are.

It’s time to face the facts that the new Axis of Evil is accurate and ready to fight instead of just insulting the West with idle talk.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Brent M. Eastwood
Written By

Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. bobb

    October 25, 2024 at 5:54 pm

    Simple or quite elementary.

    Just fire off a couple of ballistic missiles at the launching site.

    And wait for the reply.

    No reply, problem solved.

    But if the situation escalates be prepared to serve out the consequences of ww3.

    It is time for all nations to consider this: To stop conflicts caused by the staging of proxy wars, better to permanently station some ready-to-use nuke weapons in orbit.

    Once a proxy war is about to begin, deorbit a small nuke and straightaway flatten the incriminating capital city.

    When that particular shock-and-awe display has been actually carried out, people will finally learn to keep their hands to their bodies or themselves.

  2. Pingback: Putin’s Nightmare: Russian Soldiers and Civilians Start War in Ukraine – Thedoghousespa

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