Is Ukraine Running Out of Soldiers to Fight Russia?

Is Ukraine Running Out of Soldiers?: Despite fighting well and eliminating Russian troops by the hundreds or even thousands during any given battle, the Ukrainian armed forces face a serious manpower shortage.

The problem has become so acute that military recruiters in Ukraine are staking out events with large crowds and looking for draft-age men to serve in the army. The recruiters have gone to extraordinary lengths to do their jobs, even pulling men from weddings, parties, and concerts who have not registered for military service.

Recruiters Are Tracking Down Draft Dodgers

A video on Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty even showed a military-aged man being physically dragged by recruiters from a concert venue to an awaiting car. His status is unknown, but it is safe to say that he is now in the Ukrainian army and will likely soon be sent to the war zone.

“There are not enough people at the front — that is an absolute fact,” Ukrainian defense analyst Pavlo Narozhniy told Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty. “There is a shortage of personnel in absolutely all units.”

Ukrainians Are Outnumbered at the Front

The number of Russian troops could enable the invaders to win the war due to their manpower advantage. The Ukrainians are constantly being attacked by Russian personnel who have superior numbers.

Narozhniy described a scenario he believes occurs frequently at the front. Five to seven Ukrainian soldiers man a trench or observation point designed to hold 30 men. These unlucky, outnumbered troops have to fight 30 to 40 Russian troops who may be attacking in mass.

Draft Age Males Are Avoiding Registering for Service

There is a mobilization law in Ukraine. Men aged 25 to 60 must register with the government at recruitment centers, civilian offices, or on a mobile phone app. Many are simply ignoring this policy. Others have already left the country to avoid the draft altogether. Some have deserted.

The law should have given Ukraine a pool of 3.7 million reservists who could be called into service. Realistically, the army may only grow by 200,000 soldiers next year.

Seasoned Troops Have Disadvantages

One group of citizens is answering the call to serve, but they are on the older side. Many frontline infantry troops are aged 40 and above. They are certainly brave and wise about the ups and downs of combat service, but physically, they are no match for a soldier who is between 18 and 30 years old.

Defense analyst Rob Lee with the Foreign Policy Research Institute highlighted a Financial Times article on X documenting the Ukrainian personnel problem of overaged soldiers.

Lee noted that “Age is a key concern — the average person in Ukraine’s military is 45. Of about 30 infantry troops in a unit,” said the deputy commander of the 72nd brigade, “on average half were in their mid-40s, only five were under 30 and the rest were 50 or older.”

“As infantry, you need to run, you need to be strong, you need to carry heavy equipment,” this commanding officer said. “It’s hard to do that if you aren’t young.”

The Older You Are, the More Likely You Are to Become Injured

War is indeed a young man’s game. I enlisted in the U.S. Army at 28 and continued my service until I was 33. I was in peak condition for most physical training like running, but I developed painful spinal arthritis from carrying 100-pound rucks and doing sit-ups on the pavement. I probably could have avoided this malady had I been younger.

Even the Ukrainian soldiers who are answering the call, many have never served the military in any fashion. They are above 40 years old and are getting mowed down at the front without the proper training and experience. They are sometimes abandoning their positions and running away from the fighting, the Financial Times reported.

Without Enough Soldiers, Military Hardware Is Useless

The manpower shortage doesn’t seem to affect Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ‘Victory Plan.’ He frequently asks the West for more major military hardware such as missile systems and airplanes plus howitzer ammunition and rockets that can hit targets deep inside Russia. He doesn’t often admit that his army is being outmanned by the Russians.

It Will Be a Long, Hard Slog

It is unclear how long the Ukrainians can continue the fight with a shortage of young men. A full-fledged mandatory draft for all military-aged citizens would not be popular. Young men are more likely to avoid registering with the authorities, leaving middle-aged men who do not have the proper physical attributes to take their place. These new older males are being torn to pieces at the front suffering an estimated 50 to 70 percent casualty rate in infantry combat. Plus, not everyone should be in the infantry in the first place. Some draftees have civilian-acquired skills that would make for better-specialized support troops instead of infantry roles.

This is an apparent problem as the war enters its third year. Russia could conduct another conscription drive to give them further a personnel advantage. The new Ukrainian troops are not fighting well, leaving exhausted combat veterans to fend off the Russians daily. Ukraine must adapt soon or lose the war, and they may have to fight on with the more seasoned troops who are not ready for combat. Plus, if there are not enough civilians entering the training units, eventually, the war effort could grind to a halt.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.