Key Points – North Korea claims significant advancements in its hypersonic missile program, including a January 2025 test of an advanced Hwasong-16B, reportedly achieving Mach 12+ and a 1,500 km range with a maneuverable glide vehicle.
-Such capabilities, if verified, would enhance Pyongyang’s deterrence and destabilize regional security by posing a severe threat to current missile defenses in South Korea and Japan.
-However, both Seoul and Tokyo dispute the performance claims of recent tests, suggesting shorter actual ranges and trackable trajectories.
-Despite likely exaggeration for propaganda, US military assessments acknowledge North Korea is undeniably advancing its overall missile technologies, including hypersonic and MIRV capabilities.
North Korea’s Hypersonic Hype: Real Threat or Kim’s Propaganda?
North Korea has been working on its hypersonic missile program for some time now. If successful, North Korea would pose a serious threat to both South Korea and Japan. While officials have been boasting about the leaps and bounds made recently, experts doubt whether North Korea’s missiles are as good as they claim.
However, if their missiles are as good as advertised, then it could spell big trouble for the US’ regional allies.
What North Korea Claims
On January 6, 2025, North Korea successfully tested a new hypersonic missile model, believed to be an advanced version of the Hwasong-16B. This missile reportedly traveled approximately 1,500 kilometers at speeds exceeding Mach 12 and reached an altitude of nearly 100 kilometers before striking a designated target in the East Sea.
These performance metrics suggest a significant enhancement over previous North Korean missile systems and indicate a growing mastery of advanced missile technologies.
The Hwasong-16B is currently one of North Korea’s most advanced rockets. It uses solid fuel propulsion, which allows for quicker launch times and greater mobility compared to older liquid-fueled systems. This reduces the window for detection and preemptive strikes.
The missile also employs carbon-fiber composite materials, which enhance its structural integrity, thermal resistance, and aerodynamic efficiency, critical attributes for sustaining hypersonic speeds and surviving atmospheric re-entry.
Most notably, the missile is believed to carry a maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicle capable of unpredictable flight paths, making it extremely difficult for missile defense systems to intercept.
The strategic implications of North Korea’s hypersonic missile development are profound. First, these weapons enhance North Korea’s deterrence posture by providing a credible threat to US and allied forces in the region.
Their speed and maneuverability make them capable of striking high-value targets with little warning. Second, they destabilize existing defense architectures. Current systems, which are designed to intercept traditional ballistic missiles, are not optimized to counter hypersonic threats. This shifts the strategic balance in North Korea’s favor and jeopardizes the security of South Korea.
Finally, if equipped with nuclear warheads, hypersonic missiles could serve as a highly survivable second-strike capability, complicating efforts to neutralize North Korea’s nuclear arsenal in a preemptive strike.
Summed Up in 4 Words: Threat or Paper Tiger?
Despite North Korea’s claims, some international observers remain skeptical. Japan and South Korea have expressed doubts about the full extent of the missile’s capabilities, citing the lack of independent verification and the possibility of exaggeration for propaganda purposes. However, even if the technical claims are inflated, the trajectory of North Korea’s missile program is undeniably concerning.
Both Japan and South Korea have been monitoring North Korea’s progress on its hypersonic missile projects. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) concluded that the missile is still in the early development stages and is not a serious threat. The missile launches that North Korea conducted were, in reality, much less impressive than North Korean news sources made them out to be.
The missile did fly, though neither as far as an intermediate range (3,000 to 5,500 km) nor to the exaggerated North Korean claim of 1,000 km (it only went 600 to 650 km according to South Korea and Japan). Moreover, the JCS claimed that they could track and predict the trajectory of the missile as it flew, casting doubt on North Korea’s claim of the missile being difficult to track.
While the Hwasong-16B may not live up to expectations, there is no doubt that North Korea’s missile programs are becoming more sophisticated. General Xavier T. Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, testified in April 2025 that North Korea is not only advancing its hypersonic and cruise missile programs but is also developing multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). This indicates that while North Korea may skew information for propaganda, it is still a credible threat that should not be written off.
Why North Korea Wants Hypersonics
North Korea’s pursuit of hypersonic weapons is part of a broader strategy to secure regime survival, assert sovereignty, and gain leverage in international negotiations. Kim Jong Un’s regime has shifted its rhetoric from reunification to sovereignty, as evidenced by the destruction of unification monuments and the hardening of the southern border.
The regime’s investment in advanced missile technology also serves domestic propaganda purposes, projecting strength and technological prowess to a population largely isolated from the outside world. Moreover, North Korea’s ability to export munitions and provide military support to countries like Russia demonstrates its growing confidence and strategic outreach.
Hypersonic missiles are defined by their ability to travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound. This translates to over 6,000 kilometers per hour, allowing these weapons to reach their targets in a fraction of the time it takes for conventional missiles.
What makes hypersonic missiles particularly formidable is not just their speed, but their maneuverability. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles that follow a predictable arc, hypersonic missiles can change direction mid-flight, making them extremely difficult to detect, track, and intercept.
There are two main types of hypersonic weapons: hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs). HGVs are launched atop a rocket and then glide toward their target at hypersonic speeds, while HCMs are powered by high-speed air-breathing engines like scramjets throughout their flight. North Korea’s recent developments appear to focus on HGVs, which are particularly effective at evading missile defenses and delivering payloads with high precision.
About the Author:
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
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