The Personal Wars: Why Putin’s Political Survival Prevents Peace
Russia is not any closer to ending the fighting in Ukraine. The costs of this war, in terms of lives, treasure, and stability, are staggering. A deal should have been reached long ago.
Since 2022, Russia has failed to achieve its primary aim of destroying the Ukrainian nation. It has faced embarrassing reversals on land, at sea, and in the air.
Vladimir Putin and his Generals have been carrying out a multi-domain equivalent of Verdun over the past three years with no end in sign.
When combatants reach a situation that reveals the proper balance of power, they are expected to cut their losses and negotiate a deal.
Yet, the war in Ukraine has continued to grind on because of the personal fate of the leader in charge. For Putin, peace poses a greater threat to his survival than continued war.
Traditional accounts of how wars end often treat states as monolithic actors, overlooking the complex dynamics of domestic politics and the personal risks faced by individual leaders.
However, where a leader is fighting a losing or protracted war, they calculate not only the likelihood of losing power but also what will happen to them after they have lost it.
When leaders face the prospect of imprisonment, exile, or execution, they are likely to “roll the dice” on the battlefield, hoping for a change in fortune rather than accepting a defeat that would seal their doom.
What History Can Teach Us About the Ukraine War
Throughout history, the potential fates of leaders after they leave office have been a critical variable for war termination.
World War I Germany
Generals Erich Ludendorff and Paul von Hindenburg, the de facto rulers of Germany, continued to escalate the conflict despite receiving negative feedback from the battlefield.
Even though the war had reached a stalemate on the Western Front, they resisted pursuing diplomatic solutions.
Instead, they escalated the conflict. They launched unrestricted submarine warfare against the British. Once the United States entered the conflict, Germany launched the disastrous Spring Offensive of 1918.
The generals’ decision-making was not based on a sober assessment of Germany’s national interest but on a deep-seated fear of their own personal futures. A defeat would potentially expose them to legal action, exile – even execution. Peace on anything other than their own terms was seen as catastrophic.
World War I Russia
Tsar Nicholas II’s decision-making during World War I provides a particularly tragic example. His fear of a domestic political collapse and revolutionary overthrow was a primary driver of his wartime policies. By 1915, Russia’s military and economy were collapsing under the strain of the war.
Calls for peace, even from within the Tsar’s own government, grew louder. But Nicholas II refused to negotiate, even personally taking command of the military at the front. For Nicholas, accepting a peace deal that ceded territory would have been seen as weakness and would have been a massive blow to the monarchy’s prestige.
He feared this would embolden his political enemies and hasten a revolution. He calculated that his only path to survival was to present himself as a strong, unwavering leader who would lead Russia to victory.
He did not fear the German military as much as he feared the brewing revolution at home.
Tragically, his refusal to seek peace did precisely what he had feared: it contributed directly to the downfall of the Romanov dynasty and his execution.
The Syrian Civil War
Bashar Al-Assad’s conduct during the Syrian Civil War offers a more contemporary parallel. During the early years of the conflict, as rebel groups gained ground and his regime appeared on the brink of collapse, Assad faced a clear choice: negotiate a political transition, or double down on a brutal military solution.
He chose the latter. As an autocratic leader who had presided over a brutal and repressive regime, he knew that his opponents would not show him mercy. He welcomed the intervention of Iran and Russia. His decision to keep fighting worked until Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah in the late fall of 2024 severely diminished the terrorist group.
This opened a window of opportunity for a rebel coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to seize Damascus and forced Assad to flee to Moscow.
Putin’s Personal War
For a leader like Putin, ending the war in Ukraine on anything less than “victory” would expose him to significant domestic political repercussions.
His hold on power is tied to a narrative of restoring Russian greatness; a peace deal that requires ceding occupied territory or accepting a sovereign, Western-aligned Ukraine would be a defeat that could trigger his removal from office, potentially leading to imprisonment, exile, or execution.
This is because Putin can be understood as a personalist autocrat who faces two main threats: a coup by his inner circle or a popular uprising. (Putin faced and put down one potential coup by the Wagner Group in the summer of 2023).
The ability of leaders in this kind of system to keep power depends on managing conflicts among their elite networks and on their public popularity, which can deter mass revolts. Because leaders like Putin rarely leave power peacefully, they are often overthrown in violent ways.
Despite its performance on the battleground, Russia’s continued maximalist aims in the war against Ukraine reflect these high stakes.
How Can the Ukraine War End?
The war in Ukraine, driven by the personal survival of Putin, will not end without significant external pressure. The United States holds the leverage to alter the strategic calculations of Moscow.
Similarly, to counter Putin’s aggressive war of choice in Ukraine, the Trump Administration must make good on its about-face on Ukraine’s ability to win the war and increase its military and economic support for Kyiv and increase intelligence-sharing with NATO allies in order to raise the cost of Russia’s continued aggression.
This will make a stalemate untenable for the Kremlin. Absent these decisive actions, the grim status quo will persist.
About the Author: Dr. Albert B. Wolf
Dr. Albert B. Wolf is a Global Fellow at Habib University. He has advised three U.S. Presidential campaigns on American foreign policy in the Middle East. His work has appeared in Barron’s, Foreign Policy, The Hill, Kyiv Post, Roll Call, The Washington Post, and several other publications. He has also published in academic journals such as Comparative Strategy, International Security, Middle East Policy, Polity, and Survival. He has provided analysis and commentary for Al Jazeera, BBC Radio, CNBC, and I24.
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Jim
October 1, 2025 at 7:54 pm
Well, you would have expected Ukraine to be willing to negotiate a settlement long ago considering their losses which are far greater in terms of the overall size and population of Ukraine versus Russia’s size and population.
But Russia’s peace terms are too steep for Kiev to accept such as neutrality, where Ukraine was neutral from it’s 1991 independence until the bloody, violent overthrow in 2014. And equal rights for Russian speakers apparently runs afoul of the Bandera hyper-chauvinism which was imposed after the overthrow and coup. Or a limited military which Ukraine had before the 2014 overthrow, and new elections without Stepan Bandera ideology inspired candidates… the ideological driving force behind the overthrow, coup, and imposition of a police-state over time.
Apparently, all the above would constitutes “destroying the Ukrainian nation.”
It’s an absurd claim. Given Ukraine’s recent history.
Fact is, there is a fanaticism which runs through the present leadership of Ukraine which prevents them from being reasonable and seeking and end to the war which spares their people any more death & destruction.
As far a Putin and the Russians are concerned: No NATO expansion into Ukraine. Putin has been clear about that since a 2008 speech at the NATO Bucharest summit where he expressed Russian objections to NATO membership for Ukraine. And, has made repeated statements over the years that NATO membership for Ukraine was a red line they would not allow NATO to cross. (By military means if necessary.)
It’s true Russia wants a victor’s peace and that’s a steep climb, but they’d be happy to have peace with the above terms.
But the Kellogg principle: a demarcation line and Ukrainian territory West of the line being incorporated in NATO, if not right away, then over time. NATO-ized, if you will, is also a victor’s peace.
Both sides want a victor’s peace (and neither side is willing to give in to the other).
“When combatants reach a situation that reveals the proper balance of power, they are expected to cut their losses and negotiate a deal.”
Absolutely agree!
When is Ukraine going to realize the balance of power has never favored them from the beginning and they have suffered horrendous casualties these last three and a half years?
One can argue, other than the Kharkiv Offensive and the infiltration down the left bank of the Dnieper River behind Kherson City (a successful infiltration) all other major offensives have been suicide missions.
What do I mean? With a normal military with proper review of after action reports, criminal referrals would be made for Court Martial against the generals who gave the orders, but that hasn’t happened because it was the political leaders who insisted on the suicide missions, the generals were just following orders.
I’ve been told that’s no excuse.
Swamplaw Yankee
October 2, 2025 at 3:32 am
What errors?
Firstly, the Genocide of Ukrainians is an ancient 1000 year old orc ruuzzkie ethnic genetic need to butcher. There is no WAR like the Vietnam, Korean or Iran wars! The Yankee conscript did not join a monolithic tribe whose sole purpose was to butcher adults, sex/slave trade the children and steal the homes and farms of the Vietnamese Catholics or Iranian muslims. The US armed forces did not kill off home/farm/business owners just so that the Yankee could steal the “FREE” real estate. Epstein was not on the scene ready to “filter” newly minted orphans into some 1000 year old money making sale to muslim slavers.
The American nation did not exist as a concept when the orc monolithic tribe of ruzzkies already had centuries of bi-annual human “Harvesting” of Ukrainian Children throughout the hinterlands of Ukraine.
Human trafficking was normal on every village corner of Muscovy. The lazy ruzzkie was the best client of the lucrative Ottoman slave trade. Specialty slave ship fleets on the Black Sea were run by sultans to the huge dungeon sex trade fort of Caffa. The institution of muslim slavery knew that the orc Ruuzzkie sex trader was the best at spying out in what village the most desireable children and, therefore, most wanted by the Sultan for his 400 plus Harem in Constantinople.
Organized mass human trafficking of Ukrainians was the pillar of Muscovy Imperial finance, their Muscovy GNP, generating huge easy revenue for the tsars palaces, military expenditures, concubines. The special touch was the young orc ruuzzkie children were taught that resistance to these sex deviancies of Ukrainians was resistance to GOD himself.
Putin has restored the greatness of the ancient sex trade of Ukrainian children. No longer has a ruuzzkie deviant need to pay a spy to hunt out the most beautiful “Lolita” package and conduct a dangerous raid on far away Ukrainian families ready to kill the sex crazed ruuzzkie raiders. Putin bamboozled the highly intelligent POTUS Obama + his Democrat Cabal to unilaterally green light in 2014 the re-start of the sex trade of Ukrainian children. Immediately Putin’s “Little Green Groomer” military started paying local ruuzzkie speaking traitors big money for “Lolita” packages obtained in the infamous basement butcheries of Ukraine’s Crimea and Don Bass. Local ruuzzkie speakers had pre-prepped a LONG GAME with the NAZI-like FSB to ignite anarchy on Putin’s signal and finger Ukrainian parents from whom “Lolita” packages had to be “extracted”. Putin’s Groomer military would pay off the local ruuzzkie speaking anarchist butchers and “filter” the mass abducted children.
That is, the children would be redocumented by the Putin military for air shipment as free, no-cost orphans, ready for very needy Muscovy ruuzzkie speakers to give language lessons, table top dancing lessons and other tid-bits of muscovite cultural genocide.
The average ruuzzkie who benefits from free “Lolita” packages just loves and adores the no-cost benefits of the last 11 years. Putin is their man, their tribes leader, returning the young ruuzzkie children to the virtues of human trafficking on every muscovy street corner. No more decadent Western Epstein style hiding of the old traditional very legal sale of Ukrainian Children.
And, love that Putin, Putin has computerized the selection process with colour images. Thousands of Ruuzzkie “normal” women work tirelessly to to facilitate the infliction of Cultural Genocide on little Ukrainian orphans, parentless because the ruuzzkies have always loved to Genocide Ukrainians for at least 1000 years.
The clarity of a single tribe of ruuzzkie who have centuries of Genocide butchery behind them should be very clear. There is no war, there is a POTUS Obama Democrat Cabal unilaterally green lighted 2014 re-start of a very clear Genocide. The pretense if that the USA did not know a single thing about that far, far away, so far away Genocide.
That the ruuzzkies dress up in Halloween costumes as they kill Ukrainians should not fool any POTUS and his WHITE HOUSE staff. The orc ethnic ruuzzkies dressed up in fat Joe Stalin Halloween costumes in 1932-33 when the real big Genocide hit of 20,000,000 Ukrainians was scored! Yeah, with a costume on, the ruuzzkies legally did the HOLODOMOR Genocide on 20,000,000 and the USA did zip, zero to stop this Halloween craziness.
Today, Putin dresses his tribesmen up in NAZI-like FSB costumes and somehow rational Americans think that wearing a Halloween costume makes mass killing of Ukrainians acceptable. Putin has promised these Genocide killers all FREE Ukrainian real estate! Putin knows that FREE homes, condos, farms, businesses will appeal to his parasite tribesmen, especially as they all now have 11 years of FREE table top dancing “ruuzzkie” style.
In 1615 Ukrainian fathers taxed themselves to build a fleet of tiny boats. In 1616 Ukrainian fathers sailed onto the Black Sea and defeated the huge armada of muslim Ottoman slave ships. These slave ships were specially constructed to carry “Lolita” packages to eternal slavery in some muslim hell hole. The muscovites were going home with wagons filled up with gold as they had just sold off another huge mass abduction of Ukrainian children to the muslims.
In 2025 the same Ukrainian Fathers are still fighting to keep their homes, their villages free of the progeny of the same invading Russkie sex traders. In 2025, the USA should be mature enough as a nation to clearly understand that POTUS Obama tragically erred ( betrayed) in unilaterally green lighting the strategic geopolitical loss to NATO of the Ukrainian Crimean soil, Families and Black/Azov Sea jurisdictional zones to the prime vile cold war enemy of the WEST, tsarling Putin.
In 2025 the aggressive meat grinder, front trench Genocide line is a tribal genetic need of Putin. Putin is resistant to any stop to this tribal need to kill Ukrainians. It is not a war, it is his inner crazed urging to butcher Ukrainians.
Can Americans, a new nation, comprehend that angle of ancient reality? Can Americans actually nudge the MAGA POTUS Trump out of his incomprehension of a ruuzzkie Leader hell bent to kill and kill them all!
There is a real need for the MAGA crowd to make contact with their POTUS and asap! -30-
Andrew P
October 2, 2025 at 9:06 am
Hmmm. It seems to me Putin and Zelensky have the same problem – neither of them would survive politically once the war ends. The only difference for Zelensky is he has somewhere (maybe) to run to with a plane full of loot, and Putin is stuck.
Jim
October 2, 2025 at 11:29 am
Please, the so-called “Ukrainians” Vladimir Lenin & the Bolsheviks brought into Novorossiya (southern Russia) in the aftermath of the Red-White Civil War, 1917-22, were from the defeated Austro-Hungarian Empire and acted as jailers and enforcers for the Bolsheviks.
So-called “Ukranians” came into southern Russia to enforce the Bolsheviks’ collectivization campaigns using the most brutal tactics against what had been the most successful market economy in Russia before WWI.
Then in the closing months of WWII Stepan Bandera’s followers, under color and authorization of the Nazi’s (wearing Nazi uniforms), started slaughtering Poles, Russians, and Jews who didn’t share his vision of “Ukraine” into the hundreds of thousands.
“Ukes” got their start during WWI when Austro-Hungaria opened a civil internment camp for the ‘Rus’ (Russophiles) from Galacia (Thalerhof) where Ukes ran the camp and executed many Rus amid horrible (they were released if they identified as Uke) conditions, thousands died at the hands of the Ukes.
So, you see, it’s the Ukes who have been mass murderers from the beginning of their revival in the Austro-Hungary Empire, then they employed their murderous ways for the Bolsheviks and then during WWII turned their murderous attention to Poles, Russians, and Jews.
Now, they have turned their murderous ways toward their fellow citizens in Ukraine who identify as Russian and any Russians they can kill wherever they find them.
Swamplaw Yankee
October 3, 2025 at 1:25 am
Kommrade dzzzhimmm has shown the world in the above post that that the Nazi-like FSB secret police has solid proof that all ruuuzzkie ethnics love their current tsarling leader at least 100%. Read his post in this op-ed and laugh/deride with ridicule at the wholesale KGB/FSB style fabrications he keyboarded.
The 6000 years of history recorded in the territory of Ukraine do not exist in tsarling Putin’s NAZI-like FSB controlled land mass. Only the NAZI-like FSB must be believed in all matters of history of the orc ruuzzkei ethnic sex/slave abducting activities.
The advice to any peer reader is to refer to a recognized Historian, say Orest Subtelny, read his History of Ukraine, a least a bit, to put the lie in intense blazing light to Kommrade dzzzhimmm fabrications.
That the ruuzzkie ethnic muscovy mass abducted Ukrainian children for countless centuries did not depend on some one single deviant tsar. Every muscovite tsar was a lover of easy slave cash from the mass abduction of Christian Ukrainian children, where leading Muscovy families competed in locating + kidnapping the most expensive “Lolita” package of each sex trade Caravan expedition.
In 2014, Putin immediately installed “Little Green Groomer” military after POTUS Obama + his Democrat Cabal unilaterally green lit the re-start of the 1000 year old Genocide of Ukrainians! Putin genetically understood that the Greatness of Muscovite ruuzzkies depended on the re-start of the centuries old mass abduction of little children.
The LONG GAME FSB plan of 2012-13 was ignited in 2014 and local ruuzzkie speakers immediately started “basement butchery” of Ukrainian Families. The local traitor ruuzzkies had long in advance scouted out the homes of their future “Lolita” income unit.
in past centuries, “Normal” ruuzzkie families specialized in spying out any far away hidden Ukrainian village where a “Lolita” package could be abducted after her parents were slain.
The Ottoman Empire had strict guidelines for the payment of gold for “Lolita” packages. The muslim slave buyers did not pay top gold weight for scarred or crippled children. Many Ukrainian fathers had to horribly scar their childrens face to deter gold thirsting ruuzzkie families from sending their ruuzzkie families sex trade caravan to that specific village.
The reader should remember that orc ruuzzkie ethnics loved little boys just as viciously. Muslim slave buyers paid top gold weight for “beautiful” looking Ukrainian boys. The very organized Ottoman empire paid gold for a huge supply of regular looking Ukrainian boys on a yearly basis for the muslim castration process in which 90% of Ukrainian boys died. Yes, the OTTOMAN empire last slave loving sultan lasted till 1922.
Tsar after tsar made human trafficking of Ukrainian children normal, suitable for every muscovite corner! That was the pillar of muscovy imperial finance that generated huge clean GNP revenue of gold for their military and structures like the Kremlin.
The muslim slave buyer for the Ottoman ship slave fleet had a dependable centuries old ruuzzkie ethnic “Genocide” families as symbiotic economic partners. The Ruuzzkie ethnic families had centuries to perfect skills in the supply of the perfect Ukrainian “Lolita” and “Baccha Bazzi” package that a current Sultan dreamed for.
Sex trader Putin has genetic skills in cultural Genocide of Ukrainians. These “Lolita” packages just can not be mass abducted, filtered, computerized and freely distributed to his loving, adoring, doting ruuzzkie language teachers in the evil times of “Peace”.
Any minute, some weirdo Whacckkoooff slime clown could show up and offer Putin 11 free years of table top dancing abuse. That is Trump will give a free gift to Putin of 11 years of cultural genocide of Ukrainian children as a free POTUS gift. After all, Trump appointed himself as the big judge. Why even mention compensation or reparation of $10,000,000 in gold bullion to each and every Ukrainian victim.
Putin needs to ensure that the meat grinder front trenches Genocide front moves to the next village, the next spot for more instant Ukrainian “orphans” to magically come out of some basement. The ruuzzkie military is there to filter, redocument + air ship a wayward orphan to a very needy ruuzzkie speaking child cuddler.
Lenin – Smenin, tsar after tsar after tsar needed to “harvest” Ukrainian children for their willing economic partners, the muslim sultans of Constantinople. A 1000 years of ruuzzkie muscovy was in the GNP industry of mass abducting little Ukrainian girls and boys for the sex trade “flow” of gold.
Whatever Halloween costume the ruuzzkie ethnics wore as a legal excuse over the last centuries, the theft of little children and the theft of Ukrainian soil, Real Estate, is what the USA citizens should be most aware of.
OK, American citizen: Tell the ruuzzkie “normal” ethnic family or tell the tsarling Putin in power to return every square inch of stolen Ukrainian soil and,,,, the Yankee Doodle will hear the sound of ” We can commit Genocide and you can not stop us Ruuzzkies from our genetic need to butcher Ukrainians”! Finally got that psychology of the ruuzzkies, you inner beltway Yankees. -30-
Jim
October 3, 2025 at 7:43 pm
Hit a nerve did I.
Swamplaw Yankee
October 4, 2025 at 12:30 am
The US citizen can read the peer comments for themselves. For those inside the inner beltway aquarium the US constitution protects the spiritual art of hitting a nerve.
The US constitution owes its “spirit” to the 1710 Constitution penned to paper by a Ukrainian Father worn out by perpetual invasions of Ukraine by mass abductor slave traders always ready to “HARVEST” another “Lolita” package.
in 1710 the muslim Ottoman Christian slave business was in full industrial capacity. The muslim buyers needed huge numbers of Christian boys to castrate as nearly 90% DIED in that muslim decreed mutilation.
Ruuzzkie families vied for the best spy tip of where the top, prime “Lolita” package could be found, abducted and sold for the most gold weight.
This man was the leader of FREE Ukrainians, the Hetman. Learned, schooled, Orlyk was clear that the butchering Ruuzzkie tribemen + muslims needed a “legal” deflection from their centuries of Genocide + slave sale of Ukrainians.
Ad rem: Hetman Orlyk penned the world’s first constitution very much like the successor the British upper classes whipped together in the colonies.
Every US inner beltway reader should try and repay the genius of the 1710 world’s first constitution. The MAGA POTUS Trump should take inspiration from this 1710 Ukrainian document! Inspiration to demand as POTUS that every square foot of illegally occupied Ukrainian soil be returned immediately to Ukrainians.
With this one sentence demand the illegal invasion and 1000 year old Genocide will wither away to a stop. Yes, the orc ruuzzkie ethnic leaders will recognize that their con is up, the scam to steal Ukrainian soil while re-living thru murder the ancient Genocide of Ukrainians.
With recognition flooding into their brains that they can not steal Ukrainian soil with the blessing of the 2025 MAGA POTUS the invading parasites must make an immediate choice. Quickly Return back to their tribal lands and face their tsarling Putin. Perhaps some well identified murderers will go on a last suicidal butchery of anyone they see as Ukrainian. In any case, the 1710 constitution will show a spirit in its words that honours those in America who believe in the words of their later version constitution! -30-