There is No Ukraine ‘Victory’ Strategy to Defeat Russia

What IS Ukraine’s Strategy for Victory Against Russia? Nobody doubts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s courage and stalwart leadership ability during an existential crisis. He famously rejected U.S. calls for abdication during the leadup and initial days of Russia’s invasion in 2022 by stating, “The fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride.” He has rallied his country, united the world behind his cause, and overseen devastating losses against the Russians.

However, a clear strategy toward victory has not emerged, which has prevented the United States from going all in without a path to a complete win against Vladimir Putin’s forces.

What Ukraine Wants to Happen

Zelensky is driving a hard bargain. He wants Putin to leave all of the Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. He requests that Putin and his generals and other cronies be prosecuted for war crimes. And he wants Moscow to pay war reparations. These stipulations are of course unpalatable to the Russians.

Russia’s Requirements to End the War Are Unrealistic

In return for peace, Putin wants control over the 20 percent of Ukrainian territory it holds in Donbas. Crimea is off the table, and Russia will not leave there. He requires a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, and he would like Ukraine to exit the Kursk region.

T-90M from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

As you can see, both sides are far apart and have unrealistic expectations on what a peace plan should look like.

What Does Victory Look Like? We Don’t Know

Meanwhile, Zelensky has no concrete strategy for winning the war. He needs permission from the United States and NATO members to conduct deep strikes with F-16s and ATACMS missiles into Russia. This is an action that the Americans are loathe to approve for fears of escalation and the remote possibility that Russia chooses the nuclear option or at least tests a nuclear weapon to show that Putin is resolute.

Zelensky wants more money and arms, which is disliked by a vocal minority of Republicans, including vice presidential candidate JD Vance, whom Zelensky has called “too radical.” These opponents of the war believe that aid money should instead go to fix the Southern Border crisis in the United States. How long can Ukraine hold out without some assurance that there is an underlying strategy other than bumbling on forever?

Russia Fought Back

While Russia has endured a disastrous war, failing on many of its goals and objectives, including taking Kyiv in the early days of the invasion, it has adjusted. Putin’s generals have been strong on defense, and the invaders are conducting vicious counter-attacks to take more territory in the Donbas. The Russians have changed tactics by launching devastating glide bombs while airplanes stay out of reach of Ukrainian air defenses. They continue striking civilian targets, including cities, power plants, and other infrastructure that they hope could sape Ukraine’s will to fight. Russia has a bigger army than when they started the “Special Military Operation.” Moscow is receiving assistance from the Axis of Aggressors – states such as Iran and North Korea. It is also producing more ammunition and military hardware than Ukraine.

It is a Tie Ballgame in Overtime

This all spells a stalemate. Ukraine should be given credit for the Kursk incursion—a masterstroke in tactics but not a strategic coup de grace that will end the war. Zelensky’s generals thought that Putin would pull massive amounts of soldiers from the front to fight back in Kursk, but this has not really happened, and Ukraine’s invasion of Russia has bogged down. Meanwhile, the Russians are holding the line and counter-attacking.

The Trip to the United States Has Cemented Opposition to the War

Zelensky still holds on but is making diplomatic blunders. He recently visited a Pennsylvania ammunition plant with Democratic politicians in tow, ostensibly giving off the message that he supports the left over the right. He has cuddled up to President Joe Biden while criticizing vice presidential hopeful JD Vance. This has Republicans screaming that Zelensky is interfering with the election.

Unfortunately, Zelensky, often a great communicator, has now sounded vague when discussing what victory looks like.

What Zelensky Foresees Is Unclear

He haltingly explained his views to New Yorker magazine on September 22. “How do you define victory? My response is entirely sincere. There’s been no change in my mind-set. That’s because victory is about justice. A just victory is one whose outcome satisfies all—those who respect international law, those who live in Ukraine, those who lost their loved ones and relatives. For them the price is high. For them there will never be an excuse for what Putin and his Army have done. You can’t simply sew this wound up like a surgeon because it’s in your heart, in your soul.”

What About Peace?

That’s still not a strategy. This war will eventually go to the negotiation table and Zelensky must give up some territory and his hopes for NATO membership to end it. The Ukrainian leader and Donald Trump met on September 27, and the Republican challenger likely explained to Zelensky the need to compromise with Russia. Or Trump, if elected, may cut off aid to Kyiv.

Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is ready to give Ukraine a blank check and is likely to continue the flow of money and arms to Kyiv if she wins the White House. This explains Zelensky’s admiration for the Democrats.

But that still leaves the stubborn battlefield quagmire and stalemate. NATO and the EU continue to support Ukraine, but how long will that last as the war enters its third year? Zelensky will fight on with no real strategy to win. The American people are left holding the purse strings and watching their tax dollars go toward an unwinnable fight. It is not clear when this war will wrap up. Open-ended commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan have soured the American people on forever wars. And Ukraine is shaping up to be a bloodbath until each side is willing to compromise and give up territory – Ukraine in Donbas and Russia in Kursk.

This leads me to favor a Korea-like end to the war in which both sides agree to institute a treaty that includes a DMZ. This seems complicated to swallow to Zelensky and Putin, but it may be the only way to forge a long-lasting peace in Ukraine, which should be the end state for both countries.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.