Although the war in Ukraine drags on, seemingly inexorably toward its five-year mark, the war cannot go on forever. Knowing an end will come at some point, British and other European soldiers are preparing for a war game that would have them role-play as a peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
The games will deploy around 3,000 troops to Poland and reinforce them with warplanes.
Vladimir Putin in Syria. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Putin in Briefing. Image Credit: Russian Government.
What would happen if that peacekeeping force came under fire from Russian troops? Would they be allowed to return fire — to defend themselves? Or would the force of Western troops serve as a kind of shield but one unable to shoot back?
Fire When Fired Upon
Speaking to The Times, a British publication, one unnamed Western official was unequivocal: “The force that will deploy and the activities we will rehearse during this exercise give us the ability to protect ourselves across the full spectrum of threats, and we will continue to develop those capabilities.”
“Of course,” the official said, “there is the reality that Russia may choose to challenge the MNF-U in a variety of different areas. One may well, for example, be in the information domain. However, we will be ready to respond as necessary to make sure we protect our force and can deliver our mission and our mandate.”
But the official added, the assembled forces would necessarily be “defensive in nature, with no intention that the force is designed for operational offensive action.” But should push come to shove, the force would not be defenseless, but instead able to defend itself robustly. Still, the prospects for such a multinational peace-keeping force deploying to Ukraine are seemingly slim.
Talks in Abu Dhabi — but Little Hope for Peace
Tentative peace negotiations are scheduled for November 10th and 11th in Abu Dhabi, the capital city of the United Arab Emirates.
Even so, Russia appears to have little appetite for easing pressure on Ukraine ahead of the tripartite negotiations spearheaded by the United States.
According to President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has been deeply involved in the negotiations, the talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations “will focus on post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts, and next steps toward peace.”
However, it is difficult to see points of compromise between the two countries. Concessions by Ukraine to Russia would be virtually untenable, and Russian strongman Vladimir Putin has given little indication that he would be willing to see the war he started truncated by American and Ukrainian interlocutors.
Compounding the considerable obstacles to peace is the Kremlin’s relentless air campaign against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Constant Bombardment
The Kremlin is facing serious setbacks on the battlefield. In recent months, Ukrainian forces have managed to claw back modest amounts of territory Russia occupied in the east; while small, these gains represent some of the most significant liberated areas since the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, following the initial Russian full-scale invasion.
But stymied on the ground, Moscow is seemingly intent on trying to leverage its advantages in the air against Ukraine.
Overnight, Russian drones and missiles rained down yet again on Kyiv, Ukraine’s leading city, and struck a variety of civilian targets throughout the Ukrainian capital as well as other regions throughout the country.
Writing on X, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explained that “overnight alone, the Russians launched 289 attack drones, 17 ballistic missiles, and 59 cruise missiles. And even now, the air raid alert continues, and there is a threat of new Russian missile and drone attacks.”
Global Demand for Air Defenses
The global dependence on Patriot air defense interceptors has stepped into center stage thanks to both the war in Ukraine as well as the war in Iran.
The Army test fires a Patriot missile in a recent test. The Patriot missile system is a ground-based, mobile missile defense interceptor deployed by the United States to detect, track and engage unmanned aerial vehicles, cruise missiles, and short-range and tactical ballistic missiles. Patriot, along with other missile defense systems, are included in the Army Air and Missile Defense 2028, which provides the Army’s overarching vision for the AMD force, describes how the AMD force is postured to support the Army and joint forces, and articulates what must be accomplished to achieve the 2028 desired end state of preventing and defeating adversary air and missile attacks through a combination of deterrence, active and passive defense, and support to attack operations. (U.S. Army photo)
The interceptor missiles are widely considered among the most capable air defense munitions in the world, and desperately sought by both Ukraine — but also by American allies in the Middle East who are intent on defending against Iranian drone and missile attacks.
Patriot interceptors are exquisite, highly capable munitions, but their manufacture is painfully slow. Taking 24 to 30 months to build and deliver, their long lead times are a significant obstacle.
“It is very telling that all of this is happening on the day of the U.S. congressional elections. The Russians believe that America will not notice this signal from them,” Zelensky added. “But such terror must be noticed and stopped. Ukraine must be helped to defend its skies, otherwise Russia will never stop its missile strikes. It is essential to help build peace honestly and reliably, and America can do that.”
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, with a focus on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines in Donbas and writing about its civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
