Russia Might Be Losing: 1,000,000 Casualties in Ukraine War

Key Points – A new Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report, “Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine,” challenges the narrative of Russian dominance, suggesting Russia is performing poorly.

-It projects Russian military casualties (killed and wounded) will reach nearly one million by summer 2025.

-Despite these staggering losses, Russia’s territorial gains since January 2024 have been minimal (less than 1% of Ukraine, advancing only ~50 meters/day in some areas), and equipment losses are substantial relative to Ukraine’s.

Is Russia Faltering? Staggering Losses & Slow Advances in Ukraine War

This assessment comes as peace talks remain stalled, with Russia making maximalist demands, and Ukraine launching audacious deep strikes, like “Operation Spiderweb.”

Nearly a million lives have been lost or injured in some way on the Russian side of the war with Ukraine, according to a new study released this week. According to the study, which is titled “Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine,” that grim milestone is likely to be reached this summer.

According to the data released by the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russia’s war has caused a terrible human toll.

The study argues against the conventional wisdom that Russia has the upper hand in the war, which is now more than three years old.

“Russian military forces have failed to effectively advance along multiple axes in Ukraine, seized limited territory, lost substantial quantities of equipment relative to Ukraine, and suffered remarkably high rates of fatalities and casualties since January 2024, according to new CSIS data,” CSIS said in the release of the data.

“While some policymakers and experts argue that Russia holds ‘all the cards’ in the Ukraine war, the data suggests that the Russian military has performed relatively poorly on the battlefield.

A Pivotal Time

The release comes as several key developments have occurred in the long war.

The Trump Administration, which had promised a swift end to the war, has failed to deliver that, with President Donald Trump even occasionally taking shots at his longtime ‘friend’, Vladimir Putin, while also saving some barbs for Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. With the lack of progress, Trump has been making noises about disengaging from the process.

The Russian and Ukrainian sides have met twice now for talks, which have led to agreements about prisoner exchanges and the return of the remains of soldiers killed in the conflict. But the Russian side has announced their demands, several of which — Ukrainian neutrality, international recognition of Russian control over multiple regions of Ukraine, and Ukraine having a smaller army after the war — are nonstarters for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine this week launched a daring raid, using drones, that struck across Russia earlier this week and did billions of dollars of damage to Russian planes. Ukraine also launched an underwater bombing of a key bridge to Crimea, although Russia claims that no damage was done to the bridge.

Therefore, the war continues, with little sign that it will wrap up anytime soon.

Has Russia Been All That Successful?

In that infamous Oval Office meeting in February, Trump and Vice President JD Vance appeared to be trying to convince Zelensky that he couldn’t win the war outright and should make a deal to end it.

But the CIS argues that this analysis, and many others, isn’t entirely accurate.

“To better understand the state of the war and Russia’s battlefield performance, this analysis asks: How successful has the Russian military been in achieving the Kremlin’s objectives? What factors have contributed to this outcome?,” the CIS authors ask.

“To answer these questions, this assessment examines several indicators of Russia’s battlefield performance: the relative rate of advance of Russian forces, the size of Russian territorial gains, the scope of equipment losses, and fatality and overall casualty rates. The evidence suggests that Russia has largely failed to achieve its primary objectives and has suffered high costs.”

Why the lack of success? Russia has advanced slowly — “only 50 meters per day” in some areas — and has only managed to seize a “paltry” amount of Ukrainian land. And they have also lost massive amounts of equipment, in addition to the massive human casualties.

“Russia’s poor performance has likely been caused by several factors: the Russian military’s reliance on dismounted infantry and mechanized forces to take Ukrainian territory, Russia’s failure to use operational fires in a coordinated way that enables maneuver, and Ukraine’s effective utilization of defense in depth,” CSIS concludes.

About the Author: 

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.

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