Russia’s Hypersonic Missiles Can’t Win the Ukraine War

Russia has been a leader in hypersonic weapons development since 2020, when the ultra-fast and maneuverable missiles became all the rage.

However, they have not been such an awe-inspiring difference maker in the war against Ukraine.

The Russian weapons have struggled to break through air defenses, and they are overrated in some respects.

Let’s take a deeper look at Russia’s hypersonic weapons program to see if it’s everything it’s cracked up to be.

Russia’s Hypersonic Missiles: The Ukraine Test

Russia has used hypersonics against Ukrainian targets since the beginning of the war in 2022.

Still, the actual numbers of these weapons have been limited in their effect and ability to shape the outcome of the conflict.

Ukraine has proved that the vaunted missiles can be intercepted with air defenses such as the American Patriot anti-missile batteries.

Kinzhal Hypersonic May Just Be a Retread

The first missile of the Russian hypersonic arsenal is the over-hyped Kinzhal. This weapon is usually launched from a MiG-31K or Tu-22M3 airplane at high speeds.

The Kinzhal can run a blistering MACH 10. However, the Kinzhal may not be an original hypersonic projectile as it is likely to be a souped-up version of the existing Iskander-M missile. The Iskander is no groundbreaker and has been around for decades.

The Kinzhal is nuclear-capable. Vladimir Putin has been bragging about it since 2018, when he listed it as a “next generation” weapon that would dominate the future fight. The name is translated as the “dagger.” It is around 24 feet long and three feet in diameter. The payload weighs more than 1,000 pounds. The Kinzhal has a maximum range of 1,242 miles.

The idea behind the Kinzhal was to outfox the Patriot and THAAD missile interceptors that the Americans and their allies used.

Putin’s generals wanted something that could fly at high speeds and be maneuverable while launched from a fighter jet or bomber, giving the weapon more survivability. It was believed to be impervious to radar and sensor discovery.

The Kinzhal is different from the Iskander in some ways. The Kinzhal has “a redesigned tail section, reduced rudders, and a special stub at the missile’s tail designed to protect engine nozzles during high-speed flight,” according to CSIS.

To Shoot Down a Kinzhal, America’s Patriot Interceptors Must Work Overtime

In 2023, the Russians launched six Kinzhals in a strike against Ukrainian military targets. Later that year, a Ukrainian-operated Patriot system intercepted a Kinzhal, removing some of the mystique about the hypersonic weapon.

However, to shoot down these projectiles, the Patriot system needs all 32 interceptors acting in concert.

The Avangard May Be the Best in the Stockpile

The Avangard is considered a true hypersonic glide vehicle deployed on RS-26 Rubezh and RS-28 Sarmat ICBMs. It is nuclear and conventionally capable. The Avangard is a versatile hypersonic vehicle and can make impressive maneuvers in flight. The speed is also noteworthy, with the ability to travel at MACH 20. The Avengard’s origins go back to the mid-1980s and the system was tested increasingly between 1990 and 2018.

The Avengard has a range of 3,700 miles and weighs around 4,400 pounds. The nuclear warhead is equivalent to 2,000 tons of TNT. Its trajectory is unpredictable making it difficult to shoot down.

Oreshnik Hypersonic Missile Has Multiple Warheads

Another Russian hypersonic is the Oreshnik, which means “hazelnut tree,” a surprisingly harmless moniker for such a powerful weapon. The Oreshnik cuts through the air at MACH 10. It can also be nuclear and conventionally armed. It has the range to reach anywhere in Europe.

The Oreshnik is based on the RS-26 Rubezh ICBM, but it is an intermediate-range weapon. It has a range of 310 to 3,400 miles. Intermediate-range missiles have been banned by treaty before, but Russia and the United States withdrew from the arms control agreement in 2019.

The Oreshnik is noteworthy because of its payload. Ukraine’s main intelligence bureau said, “the missile has six warheads, each carrying six submunitions. Its payload of independently targetable warheads, like a cluster of hazelnuts growing on a tree, could be the inspiration for the missile’s name,” as noted by the Associated Press.

Russia believes that a large flight of Oreshniks, even with only conventional warheads, could create as much damage as a small nuclear weapon. In 2024, Russia used an Oreshnik on civilian targets in the city of Dnipro. Six fireballs were seen on Ukrainian surveillance video. Even though there were no casualties in the attack, Putin immediately took to state media to tout the Oreshnik launch.

So far, Russia has used its hypersonic weapons inventory to send a message to the United States and its allies that its ultra-high-speed projectiles are second to none. Russia is still in its infant stages when it comes to hypersonics. They are not as accurate as expected, and the Kinzhal is limited in effectiveness. The scariest weapon is the Oreshnik, while the Avengard takes second place for its dangerous range and speed.

Russia has to be considered a leader in hypersonic weapons, but it still has a long way to go before it can be truly dominant within the class. These missiles are news makers and they allow Putin to brag about their use. They have not been a total success in Ukraine if the goal is to create massive destruction of military targets or to eliminate entire neighborhoods in cities. But Russia is advancing with the three programs, and they have gathered an impressive amount of launch data that they can use to improve their flight characteristics and targeting.

In that respect, Putin has much to be proud of when touting his hypersonic program.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

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