Russia’s Navy in the Mediterranean Is Falling Apart 

Key Points – Russia’s naval presence in the Mediterranean, historically reliant on its Tartus base in Syria, faces a marked decline.

-This downturn is attributed to an aging fleet plagued by maintenance issues, the significant diversion of resources to the war in Ukraine—resulting in no Russian submarines deployed in the region as of 2025—and increasing geopolitical isolation limiting port access and logistical support, further compounded by Turkey’s closure of the Bosphorus Strait.

-The ouster of Syria’s Assad regime also casts serious doubt on the long-term viability of Tartus, severely constraining Russia’s capacity to project power and influence across the Middle East and North Africa.

Russia’s Navy Troubles Keep Getting Worse

Throughout modern history, Russia has always had trouble supporting its navies. With more than 90% of the country’s water access located in the Arctic, Russia has been in search of a warm water port to support its fleet in the Mediterranean.

Because of its geographical and geopolitical positions, Russia has had difficulty finding a place to house its fleet. Its one ally, Syria under Assad, allowed it to conduct a naval port in Tartus.

However, now that Assad has been outed, Russia’s position at Tartus and the Mediterranean in general is in trouble.

A Brief History of Russia’s Mediterranean Fleet

The origins of Russia’s Mediterranean ambitions can be traced back to the Soviet era when the country established the 5th Operational Squadron to counter the US Sixth Fleet. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s naval presence in the region diminished considerably.

Naval power changed under President Vladimir Putin, who prioritized the restoration of Russia’s global influence. In 2013, the Kremlin re-established a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean, marking a turning point in its maritime strategy.

Central to this resurgence was the naval facility in Tartus, Syria. This base, Russia’s only overseas military installation with direct access to warm waters, became the logistical and operational hub for its Mediterranean activities.

Tartus played a pivotal role during the Syrian Civil War, where Russian naval forces supported the Assad regime through missile strikes, logistics, and intelligence operations. The base also symbolized Russia’s commitment to maintaining a foothold in the Middle East.

At its height, the Mediterranean Task Force comprised a rotating mix of surface combatants, submarines, support vessels, and naval aviation assets. These included frigates and destroyers equipped with advanced missile systems, submarines capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles, and auxiliary ships that provided logistical support. The aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov was occasionally deployed to the region, though quickly recalled due to mechanical issues.

The Decline of the Mediterranean Fleet

Despite its strategic importance, the Mediterranean fleet is now in a state of visible decline. One of the most pressing issues is the fleet’s aging nature. Many vessels currently deployed are Soviet-era ships that have been in service for decades. Maintenance problems are increasingly common, and incidents such as the fire aboard the Kildin warship in early 2025 have underscored the fleet’s vulnerability and the strain on its operational readiness.

Compounding these challenges is the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has placed immense pressure on Russia’s military-industrial complex. Resources that might have been allocated to naval modernization or overseas operations have been redirected to sustain the war effort. As a result, the Mediterranean fleet has suffered from underfunding and a lack of support.

This redistribution has led to a significant reduction in capabilities, including the complete absence of submarines in the region as of 2025.

The loss of submarine presence is particularly damaging, as these vessels provided stealth, deterrence, and long-range strike capabilities.

Geopolitical isolation has further complicated Russia’s ability to maintain a robust naval presence in the Mediterranean. With deteriorating relations with NATO and the European Union, Russian vessels face increasing surveillance and limited access to friendly ports.

This isolation has created logistical hurdles that make sustained deployments more difficult and less effective. To make matters worse, the only way to access the port at Sevastopol in Russian-held Crimea is through the Bosphorus Strait in Turkish hands. After the Russians entered Ukraine in 2022, Turky cut off access to the Bosphorus Strait, essentially cutting off the Mediterranean Fleet from the Black Sea Fleet.

The future of the Tartus naval base, while still operational, remains uncertain. Although it was expanded and modernized in the 2010s, its utility is now constrained by the broader decline of the fleet and the limited number of deployable assets. With the Assad regime gone, it is unclear whether the new government will allow Russia to keep the port. Nevertheless, Tartus continues to serve as a platform for intelligence operations, regional diplomacy, and occasional missile strikes in support of allied regimes.

Russia’s Never Ending Naval Troubles

The decline of Russia’s Mediterranean fleet has several important implications. First, it reduces Moscow’s influence in the Middle East and North Africa. Naval power was a key enabler of Russia’s interventionist policies in Syria and Libya.

Without it, Russia’s ability to shape regional events is slightly diminished. Second, the weakening of Russia’s naval presence provides NATO with a strategic advantage. With fewer Russian ships in the region, NATO enjoys greater freedom of maneuver and can conduct operations with less risk of confrontation. This shift could embolden Western efforts to support Ukraine or other regional allies.

Despite all the hardships, Russia is unlikely to abandon its Mediterranean ambitions entirely. If the conflict in Ukraine de-escalates, the Kremlin may resume efforts to modernize its navy, including constructing new frigates and submarines.

Additionally, Russia may increasingly rely on private military companies, such as Wagner or its successors, to maintain regional influence without direct naval involvement. Strategic partnerships with non-Western powers like Iran, China, or other allied nations like Algeria could also provide alternative ports and logistical support, helping to offset Russia’s geopolitical isolation.

About the Author:

Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.

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