As Washington hopes its new economic pressure campaign will force Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz, oil is still finding a way out of the Persian Gulf, with producers finding creative ways to move their crude out of the region.
And while it’s clear that some oil is leaving through the Strait of Hormuz, the price of achieving it is becoming extraordinarily high.
Nimitz-class carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) transits the Atlantic Ocean while offloading munitions via helicopter to the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), June 27, 2025. Gerald R. Ford, a first-in- class nuclear aircraft carrier and deployed flagship of Carrier Strike Group Twelve, incorporates modern technology, innovative shipbuilding designs, and best practices from legacy aircraft carriers to increase the U.S. Navy’s capacity to underpin American security and economic prosperity, deter adversaries, and project power on a global scale through sustained operations at sea. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Jarrod Bury)
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Earnings on the benchmark route for supertankers carrying oil from Saudi Arabia to China reached a record $647,000 per day on Thursday, August 27, according to Baltic Exchange data reported by Bloomberg on Friday.
That is more than 10 times the rate shipowners were earning a year ago.
The increase comes as Gulf producers try to boost exports despite ongoing disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, and as relatively few shipowners appear willing to send vessels through such a dangerous stretch of water.
It’s an odd situation that means Gulf oil supplies are beginning to recover without Hormuz actually returning to normal – even if traffic remains far below pre-war levels.
Supertankers Are Worth $650,000 Per Day
The tanker market offers a particularly clear view of the scale of the disruption in Hormuz. Bloomberg reported this week that ships operating the Saudi Arabia-to-China route are now earning as much as $647,000 per day.
The cost of hiring a vessel to travel from Oman to China has also risen to around $220,000 per day, compared with $131,000 just one month ago.
The Saudi-China route is particularly important as a benchmark because it is used by very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, which usually transport around 2 million barrels of oil at a time.
Prices are expected to begin increasing dramatically late last week after South Korea’s Sinokor Group, the largest supertanker operator in the world, began to charter vessels at elevated prices, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.
Sinokor purchased dozens of tankers earlier this year before the war with Iran started. But the biggest driver of the price increase is obvious: producers have more oil to export, and far fewer ships are willing to enter the Persian Gulf than before the war.
And so, prices increase.
How Much A Trip Through Hormuz Can Cost
Speaking at an energy conference in Stavanger, Norway, on Monday, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said shipowners now demand extraordinary compensation because of the danger of transiting Hormuz.
According to Pouyanne, moving a supertanker through Hormuz can now cost around $20 million, with freight expenses adding roughly $10 to the price of every barrel of oil carried.
Regardless, TotalEnergies has continued to move oil through the waterway because producers in the Gulf are offering steep discounts to incentivize moving the product into international markets.
The French energy firm said that it has been able to buy some Gulf crude for as little as $50 per barrel, even as international Brent prices remain around the $90 mark.
Those numbers mean there is room for great profits, but only for companies willing to take enormous risks and whose crews are willing to do the same.
The Oil Industry Has Built A Shuttle System
The industry is responding to these new dynamics by changing how it delivers oil to customers.
Before the war, tankers would transit the Strait of Hormuz, load up with cargo, and transit back through the waterway.
But now, rather than requiring every tanker to travel deep into the Persian Gulf, some vessels are now operating as shuttles.
Those ships, owned by companies willing to accept the risks of operating in the region, collect oil from Gulf producers and then carry it through the Strait of Hormuz.
The cargo is then moved onto another tanker waiting outside the strait.
Those vessels then carry the oil to Asia or elsewhere without ever entering the most dangerous waters.
The system appears to be substantial enough that conventional tracking data may be understating the true volume of oil escaping the Gulf, with Kpler noting that “total Hormuz clearance,” including offshore Gulf of Oman transfers, has averaged around 8.6 million barrels per day since June 17.
Iraq Is Finding Another Way Out
Gulf producer Iraq is adapting to the new system and expects long-term disruption.
State oil marketer SOMO is currently offering buyers Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy crude for collection via ship-to-ship transfers near Oman in September, allowing its cargoes to reach customers without every tanker having to make the full journey into the Persian Gulf.
Baghdad reportedly reached agreements with shipping companies to begin moving crude through safer routes before transferring it outside the Strait of Hormuz, and the system is already bearing fruit.
Iraqi loadings from Basra have climbed back to around 2 million barrels per day after collapsing below 100,000 during the worst disruption earlier in the conflict.
But while these new systems may be easing the pressure for now, they are not long-term solutions – particularly if Iran takes advantage of the United States’ interceptor shortage, continues to rebuild its missile capabilities, and follows through on its promise to keep fighting for “generations.”
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
