Key Points and Summary – The F-35 program is under renewed fire as its total lifecycle cost estimate has ballooned past $2 trillion.
-A 2024 GAO report highlighted a 44% surge in sustainment costs, while a new September 2025 GAO report delivered a “stunning” finding: 100% of F-35s delivered in 2024 were late, by an average of 238 days, yet contractors still received incentive fees.
An F-35A Lightning II banks away from an F-22 Raptor Feb. 6, 2020, near the Hawaiian Islands. F-35 Airmen from Luke Air Force Base, Ariz., temporarily relocated to Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, to join other flying squadrons in exercise Pacific Raptor. Every training mission of the exercise was carried out by total-force teams from the Air Force’s Active, Reserve and Air National Guard components. (courtesy photo)
-While the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) attempts to “clarify” the $2 trillion figure by citing 94 years of inflation, critics like Elon Musk have labeled the jet “obsolete.”
-Despite the delays and costs, Lockheed Martin was just awarded a new contract for up to 296 more F-35s.
The Great F-35 Stealth Fighter Debate Takes a Negative Turn
The Government Accountability Office’s WatchBlog in May 2024 released a shocking report, in which it stated that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program had reached a price tag of over $2 trillion over its entire lifespan. The post was based on a pair of earlier GAO reports.
The F-35 had reached full-rate production that March, after staying “at or near” that rate for several years.
“DOD is pursuing a $16.5 billion modernization effort that will provide the F-35 with new capabilities through both hardware and software upgrades,” the GAO post said. “These include radar enhancements, weapons, and technology to avoid aircraft collisions. Some of these capabilities depend on technology updates that were planned for delivery last July. But they are delayed because of software stability issues.”
(Aug. 07, 2024) An F-35B Lightning II assigned to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 122 at Yuma, Ariz., taxis after landing at Naval Air Station Jacksonville as part of the aircraft’s temporary transfer to Fleet Readiness Center Southeast (FRCSE). The jet is the first F-35 ever inducted into the depot and is part of a readiness improvement initiative to support corrosion mitigation efforts for the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC). (U.S. Navy photo by Toiete Jackson/Released)
At the time, there were 630 F-35s in use across the military services, with plans to buy 1,800 more.
But costs have increased.
“Projected costs for sustaining the F-35s have continued to rise from $1.1 trillion in 2018 to $1.58 trillion 5 years later (a 44% increase). This increase is in part due to the extension of the service life of the aircraft from 2077 in 2018 to 2088 in 2023,” the GAO said in 2024. The increase came despite the Pentagon reducing some costs, making plans to fly the F-35 less, and making an effort at “spending more now to cut costs later.”
“The F-35 is meant to give the U.S. military defense an advantage as well as be the future of these efforts,” the report continued. “That’s why it is so important for the F-35 to be both affordable and available to the military when needed.”
“Not Ready For Prime Time?”
Responsible Statecraft wrote about the costs of the F-35 in August 2024, noting that the jet is “officially the most expensive weapon program in history.”
According to the timeline compiled by Responsible Statecraft, the contract for the F-35 was awarded to Lockheed Martin just weeks after the 9/11 attacks. Edward Aldridge, then the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and technology, described the F-35 as “highly common, lethal, survivable, supportable, and affordable next generation multirole strike fighter aircraft.”
But according to Responsible Statecraft’s Dan Grazier and Lucas Ruiz, the F-35 in the previous quarter-century has proven to be anything but those things.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II, from the 421st Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, deployed to Kadena Air Base, taxis after a training mission at Kadena Air Base, Japan, July 11, 2025. The F-35 is an agile, versatile, high-performance, multirole fighter that combines stealth, sensor fusion and unprecedented situational awareness to overcome adversarial and situational challenges. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman Nathaniel Jackson)
The decision-makers behind the program, per the piece, “committed the United States to spend hundreds of billions of dollars for a program that has proven to be an unmitigated disaster. They created a massive financial obligation that future generations of taxpayers must bear, without the much-touted program having produced any of the actual security benefits it was supposed to bring to the U.S. armed forces.”
A Clarification on F-35
This past April, according to Air and Space Forces, the F-35 Joint Program Office issued a “clarification” about that cost estimate, which by that point had been reported as reaching $2.1 trillion.
Air and Space Forces cited a press release from the Joint Program Office claiming that “the $2.1 trillion F-35 program estimate, which came to light last spring, is an all-inclusive figure covering 94 years of procurement of an eventual 2,456 aircraft, development, upgrades and modifications, spare parts, operating costs, personnel, the depot enterprise and even fuel, among other expenses.”
This also, they claimed, included foreign investment.
The press release was titled “Providing the Facts Behind the $2T Number.” It doesn’t appear to have been published publicly. The release added that about half of the historical $2.1 trillion figure was due to inflation.
U.S. Air Force Capt. Melanie “MACH” Kluesner, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team pilot and commander, flies an aerial demonstration certification flight at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, Feb. 22, 2024. Upon the 388th Fighter Wing commander certification, the F-35 Demo Team pilot is required to complete the Air Combat Command Heritage Flight Training Course. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Kaitlyn Ergish)
“The long-term nature of the program, spanning nearly a century, results in significant inflationary effects,” the release said. “This unprecedented scale, along with the simultaneous management of development, production, and sustainment, underlines the scope of the F-35 program and its associated costs.”
Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael Schmidt, the Air and Space Forces report said, told the office to “work through a cost narrative to clarify information that he has seen in numerous reports (both internally and externally). He wanted to provide a breakdown of costs and provide context directly from the program.”
That story also noted that while President Donald Trump has praised the F-35 program, Elon Musk, who at the time was running the DOGE office and serving as an influential presidential adviser, was more of a skeptic, referring to it as “obsolete” and “jack of all trades, master of none” in comments last year.
Another GAO Report
This September, the GAO published another report, “F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Actions Needed to Address Late Deliveries and Improve Future Development.”
The report made several recommendations for improvements. It once again found that “DOD estimates that Block 4 and engine and power thermal management modernization—as well as the costs to maintain and operate the 2,470 planned aircraft over the 77-year life cycle—will exceed $2 trillion.”
But the headline from the report wasn’t the topline cost—it was the revelation that in 2024, every single F-35 delivered to the Pentagon was late, by an average of 238 days. Nevertheless, contractors kept millions of dollars in incentive fees meant to encourage faster delivery.
A New Deal
Despite all of that, Lockheed Martin and the Joint Program Office announced in late September that they had reached an agreement on “lots 18-19 for the production and delivery of up to 296 F-35s.”
“The F-35 Lot 18-19 contract represents continued confidence in the most affordable and capable fighter aircraft in production today,” Chauncey McIntosh, vice president and general manager of the F-35 Lightning II program at Lockheed Martin, said in the announcement of the deal. “We are proud to support our customers and further solidify the F-35’s role in enabling peace through strength.”
Meanwhile, Canada’s government continues to delay its decision on whether to go forward with a planned purchase of 88 F-35s.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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SMP
November 1, 2025 at 1:19 am
Selective information is provided in this article.
There were delivery delays in aircraft in 2024 due to new computers that were delayed (complex high performance embedded computers that will provide the processing support for future awesome capabilities!!!). Many 2025 aircraft were parked awaiting the upgraded computers to be manufactured. ALL of these aircraft have been completed and sold off to the US and foreign customers with the computer upgrades installed. What are the 2025 delays… you may have guesses it these were not in this report, and there aren’t any major delays now that the ipgraded computers are in full production.
Mr. Silver and the “National Security Journal” need to get the facts right, and not let biased opinions and half baked research further pollute the internet with a bunch of selected half truths provided as facts.
steven crumb
November 1, 2025 at 10:19 am
Having worked for Defense contractors in the past, I have this observation, almost all DOD(w) has no connection with reality in terms of cost. Contractsvare a perfect perfect storm of major cost drivers, government oversight and constantly shifting procurement specification, monopolistic contractors, jerry-mandered distribution, small units, no market forces, etc. etc. So why don’t we stop talking about cost “overruns” like idiots and focus on capability and effectiveness? Until LM starts making F-35s for your garage, they’ll always be expensive. Are they effective in battle and maintainable? That’s what’s important.