Key Points and Summary – Recent events, including the “Operation Midnight Hammer” B-2 strike on Iran, have highlighted the urgent need for the US Air Force to acquire a much larger fleet of stealth bombers.
-The current force of only 19 B-2s is stretched thin. Compounding the issue, significant delays in the B-52J modernization program mean those aircraft may not be ready until 2030 or later.
The B-21 Raider program is on track and continues flight testing at Northrop Grumman’s manufacturing facility on Edwards Air Force Base, California. The B-21 will have an open architecture to integrate new technologies and respond to future threats across the spectrum of operations. The B-21 Long Range Strike Family of Systems will greatly enhance mission effectiveness and Joint interoperability in advanced threat environments, strengthening U.S. deterrence and strategic advantage. (U.S. Air Force photo)
-Consequently, top military leaders, like STRATCOM Commander Gen. Anthony Cotton, are now publicly calling for the B-21 Raider production goal to be increased from the planned 100 aircraft to at least 145, and potentially as many as 200.
The Air Force Needs More B-2 Stealth Bombers
Multiple pressures on the United States Air Force’s (USAF) bomber inventory and projections for future long-range attack air power requirements have raised the issue of how many B-21 Raider bombers need to be built.
Some of the major talking points that have defense planners deliberating over this issue include:
-What does the recent use of the B-2 stealth bomber raid on Iran in Operation Midnight Hammer tell us about the future requirements for stealthy, long-range bomber aircraft?
-If there are continuing problems with the B-52J upgrade, what could impact the need for more than the initially planned numbers of the B-21?
-What do the mistakes of the B-2 program tell us about what not to do with the B-21?
Taking the last topic first, National Security Journal had the opportunity to speak with one of the now-retired senior USAF general officers who participated in the development and procurement plans for the B-2 program and offered some recommendations for how the B-21 effort should proceed.
“One of the biggest mistakes we made—and that we are seeing now with the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites—is that we do not have enough of the B-2s. We only built 21 of them.”
“Some number of those—and the number is classified, so we do not know—are dedicated to the USAF nuclear mission and cannot be used for a strike like Midnight Hammer. Some number of aircraft will also be down for repairs or are undergoing an upgrade. So, at the end of all of this, you have just a handful available for these kinds of special missions,” the source said.
“This brings up the question of why we have so few of the B-2s. The original plan was for 100 of them to be built, but then came the end of the Cold War,” he said. “The administrations that came after the collapse of the USSR decided the B-2 was no longer needed because ‘the new Russia’ would no longer be a threat.
B-21 Raider. Image Credit U.S. Air Force.
“This did not really turn out to be the case, but it was too late to re-start B-2 production. It is a lesson learned and a mistake that we should not repeat with the B-21.”
Future Demands and Force Structure
Back in March, during the McAleese and Associates annual Defense Programs Conference, top US defense officials provided an overview of the future force structure requirements for the USAF and the US Strategic Command (STRATCOM). Among the requirements that were discussed were the B-21 Raider and NGAD.
Gen. Anthony J. Cotton, head of STRATCOM, said that the Air Force needs 145 B-21 Raider stealth bombers instead of the 100 currently planned. This statement is the first time the number 145 has been made public.
Previously, defense officials only hinted at an increase in the number of required B-21s beyond the initially planned 100 by mentioning that the service would need 220 bombers. If the “planned” number of 75 B-52Js is subtracted from that number, it follows mathematically that it leaves 145 B-21s.
The larger number of B-21s is also based on estimates that the USAF will need “high-end penetrating capability” in the future to face the increased threats of future combat scenarios.
Cotton had previously told the Senate Armed Services Committee in 2024 that he “would love more [B-21s].” The head of Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC), Gen. Thomas Bussiere, stated that the bomber fleet’s size might need to be reassessed, with 220 being the suggested number. Gen. Bussiere’s comments were echoed by Cotton, who also mentioned the same number.
Production Rates and B-52J
Cotton also said he would like to see an increase in the production rate of the B-21. When the program plans were first devised, the USAF decided on a low rate of production.
This slow production tempo was intended to buffer the program against any complications caused by cost overruns and budget caps.
However, as Cotton stated, “The geopolitical environment was a little bit different than what we face today.”
A B-2 Spirit Stealth Bomber, assigned to Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, prepares to take off at RAF Fairford, United Kingdom, on March 20, 2020. The aircraft is deployed as part of Bomber Task Force Europe, which tests the readiness of the Airmen and equipment that support it, as well as their collective ability to operate at forward locations. U.S. Strategic Command routinely conducts such operations across the globe to demonstrate U.S. commitment to collective defense as these aircraft, Airmen and key support equipment from Whiteman AFB, Missouri, integrate with Geographic Combatant Command operations and activities. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Tech. Sgt. Colton Elliott)
In fact, Cotton specified the threat is now “significantly greater,” although he added that “this is not ‘Cold War 2.0’.”
Maybe he should have added the word “yet” at the end of that sentence.
What now has USAF planners worried is that the 75 B-52Js that they were counting on will probably not be available when the time comes. The latest GAO report now assesses that none of the upgraded aircraft will be available until 2030 or later due to problems with upgrading the aircraft’s radar.
MORE – The B-21 Raider Bomber Test
“The Department of Defense (DOD) continues to struggle with delivering innovative technologies quickly and within budget,” reads the preamble to the report. The radar itself will only begin “production in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 is at risk due to software challenges.”
With these delays seemingly unfixable, the USAF may now be considering boosting the B-21 production to 200 units.
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs and Director of the Asian Research Centre with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments, and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
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