Iran has halted its direct missile and drone attacks against Israel—but Israel has made clear that it does not intend to halt military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Accordingly, the war’s center of gravity is shifting, with concerns over a direct Israel-Iran escalation fading; now the biggest question is whether the Israel-Lebanon conflict will prompt Iran to re-engage.
Tenuous Ceasefire
Merkava Tank Israel. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The US-brokered ceasefire was built around Israel and the Lebanese government, but excluded Hezbollah. Under the terms of the agreement, Hezbollah fighters would withdraw north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese Army would secure demilitarized zones. The ceasefire had one fatal flaw, however: Hezbollah never agreed.
And in Hezbollah’s view, withdrawing while Israel forces remain active amounts to a surrender. Instead, Hezbollah has kept operating, without acknowledging the ceasefire, and in response, Israel has intensified their military operations.
Will Israel Stop?
Israel may not stop, as their strategic objective is not deterrence or retaliation.
Rather, Israel seems motivated to permanently degrade Hezbollah’s ability to threaten northern Israel. And from Israel’s perspective, the current conditions are favorable; Iran is weaker, Hezbollah has suffered losses, and US support remains available for the time being. Therefore, Israeli leaders appear reluctant to stop before achieving more lasting gains.
F-16I Fighter from Israel. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Indeed, Israel appears focused on creating a permanent security buffer in southern Lebanon. Tactics reportedly include extensive air strikes, destruction of suspected Hezbollah infrastructure, and the occupation of key terrain.
The Israeli goal appears to be removing the tunnels, launch sites, supply caches, and observation posts that Hezbollah has spent decades building. Israel is concerned that a temporary ceasefire would just allow Hezbollah to regenerate.
Iran Holding Fire
Iran has surprised some observers by holding fire. Rather than strike Israel again, which Iran has demonstrated the capability to do, Iran is now presenting itself as restrained, rational, and responsive to diplomacy. Iran is also allowing the burden to shift to Israel; if fighting resumes, Iran can plausibly argue that Israel escalated first. The Iranian pause doesn’t look like surrender but rather a calculated repositioning.
US Balancing
Trump is working to keep the two conflicts separate, to keep the Iran negotiations completely detached from the fighting in Lebanon. This would preserve the broader US-Iran diplomatic track, where issues can be isolated to include sanctions relief, nuclear constraints, and stability in the Strait of Hormuz—all issues that sparked Epic Fury.
The problem is that Iran doesn’t view these issues in isolation from what’s happening in Lebanon. Tehran believes that any lasting regional deal must address Lebanon, so Washington is stuck in a diplomatic balancing act that neither Israel nor Iran has accepted.
Hezbollah Risk
The biggest risk right now is probably not Israel attacking Iran or vice versa, but Hezbollah launching a major strike, i.e., mass rocket barrage, successful attack on Israeli civilians, or major military casualty event. This would spark an instant response from Israel, which would perhaps prompt an Iranian intervention in turn, and suddenly, regional escalation would resume. The current calm is indeed fragile.
Next Phases
Israel is expected to continue conducting operations in Lebanon. Hopefully, Iran continues to show restraint as the US conducts an intensive diplomatic campaign. Hezbollah will continue to resist to the extent possible. There is an outside chance that a major Hezbollah attack could trigger another Israel-Iran escalation.
For now, Iran and Israel have paused their direct confrontation, but much of the underlying tension remains unresolved. The battlefield appears to have shifted from Iran and Israel to southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Hezbollah front. Netanyahu may recognize a unique opportunity to reshape the northern border.
Israel’s military resembles what some analysts have called a “shaping operation” that focuses on permanently altering the battlefield environment.
Israel will likely continue to focus on destroying Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the hope of permanently degrading Hezbollah’s ability to harm Israel. The logic follows that Israeli leaders believe previous ceasefires merely allowed Hezbollah a chance to regroup and regenerate.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a writer and attorney focused on national security, technology, and political culture. His work has appeared in City Journal, The Hill, Quillette, The Spectator, and The Cipher Brief. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in Global & Joint Program Studies from NYU. More at harrisonkass.com.
