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The Treaty

The Risks of Donald Trump 2.0 Foreign Policy

Donald Trump Back in 2016.
Donald Trump Back in 2016.

The State Department Operations Center called me in the middle of the night 34 years ago this summer – August 2, 1990 – to alert me to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.  Similar calls woke up colleagues all over Washington; I got the call because I was the desk officer for Kuwait.

The brutal invasion was not exactly a surprise.  Iraq had long claimed Kuwait as its 19th province; Saddam Hussein’s rhetoric had grown increasingly bellicose that summer; and tens of thousands of Iraqi troops were on the border.  What I did not expect, though, was the master class President George H.W. Bush would give about why U.S. leadership is essential to safeguard U.S. interests.

Bush 41 showed that perilous times require a steady hand on the helm of the ship of state.  He brought unmatched foreign policy experience, strategic vision, and character to the Oval Office.   Donald Trump is dangerously deficient on all three counts.  His election would erode our international standing and endanger our national security.  Nowhere is this more apparent than in the volatile Persian Gulf.

Donald Trump dangerously mixed foreign policy ignorance and intellectual laziness while in office.  Inconsistency and tumult marked his term as president.  His first foreign trip as president warned of what was to come.  Following his visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump tweeted his support of the Saudi-Emirati blockade of Qatar, overriding the efforts of his Secretaries of State and Defense to ease tensions and restore unity among our partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Trump apparently did not know that Qatar is home to Al Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East.  No wonder:  Rex Tillerson, his first Secretary of State, described Trump in 2018 as someone who is “pretty undisciplined, doesn’t like to read, doesn’t read briefing reports, doesn’t like to get into the details of a lot of things, but rather just kind of says, ‘This is what I believe’.”

But no one ever accused Trump of being consistent.  Less than a year after supporting the ill-advised campaign against Qatar, Trump welcomed its Amir to the White House and said that bilateral ties were working “extremely well.”

Whipsaw changes characterized Trump’s approach to the Middle East, and his complete about face vis-à-vis Qatar was just the first of many to come.  Trump announced he would withdraw U.S. forces from Syria in December 2018; changed his mind twice; and ended up leaving a residual force there.  The following year, after Iran shot down a U.S. surveillance drone, Trump briefed Congressional leaders about his plan to retaliate.    But later than day, with just ten minutes to go, Trump called off the airstrikes without consulting his Vice President, his Secretary of State, his Secretary of Defense, or anyone else on his national security team.

Compare Bush 41’s steadfastness and strategic foresight with the mixed signals Trump was sending Iran.  Even Trump acolyte Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) directly connected the Iranian attack against Saudi oil fields in September 2019 to the message Trump had sent in June by backing down from his bellicose rhetoric and calling off retaliatory strikes at the last minute.

Trump’s impulsiveness and inability to think strategically would have appalled Bush 41, the president who so successfully steered U.S. foreign policy during the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.  Bush 41 intuited that Saddam’s unprovoked aggression threatened more than just Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, but would also determine the future conduct of international relations.  As he explained in his January 16, 1991 address to the nation, “We have before us the opportunity to forge for ourselves and for future generations a new world order—a world where the rule of law, not the law of the jungle, governs the conduct of nations.”

Bush 41 and Secretary of State James Baker demonstrated masterful diplomatic leadership and vision in assembling the global coalition that defeated Saddam and liberated Kuwait.  Contrast their success with Trump’s mishandling of crises throughout the Middle East and particularly those involving U.S. partners in the Persian Gulf.

Because foreign policy challenges have only increased since the Bush 41 administration the United States cannot afford to reprise the four years of national security ineptitude that a second Trump administration would inflict.  A vote for Donald Trump is a vote for renewed chaos and retreat.  Fortunately, there is a better choice:  a second Joe Biden administration will sustain U.S. leadership and thereby protect U.S. economic and security interests in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, and beyond.

About the Author: Ambassador Gordon Gray

Gordon Gray was a career Foreign Service officer who served as Deputy Commandant of the National War College, U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.  Follow him on X (Twitter) @AmbGordonGray.

Gordon Gray
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Gordon Gray is the Kuwait Professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Affairs at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Prior to his retirement from the U.S. government after 35 years of public service, Ambassador Gray was the Deputy Commandant at the National War College. He was the U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia from 2009 until 2012, witnessing the start of the Arab Spring and directing the U.S. response in support of Tunisia’s transition. From 2008-2009, he served in Iraq as Senior Advisor to the Ambassador, focusing on governance and infrastructure in the southern provinces. Ambassador Gray was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs from 2005 until 2008; his responsibilities included the promotion of U.S. interests in the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, and oversight of the bureau’s Regional Affairs office. His other foreign assignments included Egypt (where he served as Deputy Chief of Mission from 2002 until 2005), Canada, Jordan, Pakistan, and Morocco, where he began his career as a Peace Corps volunteer. He twice received the Presidential Meritorious Service award.

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