The Russian Military Is Falling Apart

Key Points and Summary – In a significant sign of vulnerability, Russia has abruptly canceled its flagship Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, a major annual showcase of military strength.

-The Kremlin cited vague “security reasons,” but the decision came immediately after a massive Ukrainian drone barrage targeted western Russia, with some drones intercepted near the city itself.

Russia Tu-22M Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

-The cancellation of such a high-profile patriotic event is a major public humiliation for Vladimir Putin. It demonstrates that the war is increasingly reaching Russian soil and disrupting even the most choreographed displays of state power, suggesting vulnerability rather than strength.

The Symbolism Is Hard to Ignore: Russia’s Canceled Parade Is a Sign of Vulnerability.

For the first time since 2017, Russia’s government has cancelled the annual Navy Day parade that was due to take place last Sunday in the nation’s “second city” of St. Petersburg. The event, always televised, is a large, full-scale parade.

This naval parade is second only in size and spectacle to the May 9 Victory Day parade, which is part of a massive celebration in Moscow and runs through the famous Red Square adjacent to the Kremlin.

The Navy Day celebration is traditionally a flotilla of warships and other military vessels steaming down the Neva River in procession. It is also usually attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior political and military officials.

Although cancellation of the 2024 parade was considered, a scaled-down parade was instead held on July 28, the official date of the military holiday.  Other events scheduled to take place in the nearby city of Kronstadt were then cancelled – based on what had been called “security concerns” at the time.

Various news outlets had reports that the Russian naval vessels that take part in the event could possibly be attacked while participating in the parade. The threat was supposedly related to threat warnings that the St. Petersburg security officials had received about the possibility of drone attacks.

The Drones Are Back

Last year, the then-US Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, held two phone calls with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov prior to the Naval Day parade. One of the main points of discussion was reportedly a possible attack by Ukrainian drones in a covert attack during the celebration.

Austin then reportedly contacted senior Ukrainian officials and requested that they not plan an attack of that nature. Nonetheless, Russian officials were still suspicious that Ukraine would target the naval parade anyway, which caused organisers to reduce the size of the procession.

Tu-22M Bomber from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

However, this year, the most famous covert drone strike of the war, Operation Spiderweb, is just barely in the rearview mirror. This was an attack where Ukrainian drones hit several bomber bases—some of them deep into Russian territory. This was a far more challenging objective than hitting a naval procession in St. Petersburg.

Another consideration for cancelling this year’s event is the dramatic escalation of Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. There seems little doubt that Ukraine’s intelligence services would now make the parade a prime target.

So, it was not much of a surprise when the chief Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, announced that “[the cancellation of the parade] has to do with the general situation. Security reasons are of utmost importance.”

A More Subdued Event

This past Sunday, Putin arrived in his hometown of St. Petersburg to attend ceremonies and other official events—even though the parade was now off. Russia’s security authorities still have not released any specific details as to the threat of an attack to justify the decision.

Tu-95 Bomber Russian Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

However, Ukrainian drones did target St. Petersburg on Sunday, when the parade would normally take place. These strikes forced the closure of the city’s main Pulkovo airport, with all flights shut down for close to five hours. The airport has also had to shut down multiple times in recent weeks as Ukrainian drone attacks become larger and more frequent.

The Russian Defence Ministry announced this past Sunday that its air defence units brought down 291 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones. This is still less than the record number of 524 drones intercepted in attacks on May 7, which were launched ahead of Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9. Still, they were enough to make people nervous to a point that would merit calling off the procession.

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“Today, we are marking this holiday in a working setting, we are inspecting the combat readiness of the fleet,” Putin said in a video address. The parade was meant to be the highlight of Russia’s Navy Day, which traditionally is on the last Sunday of July each year, and to honour the country’s sailors.

But drone attacks on non-military targets have now become a staple of this war, particularly on the part of the Russians and Ukrainians, who are out for revenge. “People in Russia had better get used to their holidays being something less normal than what they have been used to in the past,” said one Ukrainian colleague. His company builds some of the drones of the type that would have been launched against this parade.

About the Author

Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.

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