Key Points and Summary – Despite a recent war and the threat of new sanctions, Iran’s oil exports are surging, funding what critics call “oppression at home and aggression abroad.”
-A new analysis from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies reveals that Tehran’s exports jumped 37% in the months following the conflict, with China and the UAE as the primary buyers.
-The authors argue that President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign has effectively collapsed, and they call for a new, aggressive strategy to dismantle Iran’s sophisticated sanctions-busting network before the regime can rebuild its military capabilities.
Iran and Those Oil Export Sales…
Iran, last month, fought a 12-day war with Israel, and had its nuclear sites struck by both Israel and the United States. Now, Iran is facing the potential return of the U.N. sanctions that were lifted a decade ago, following the completion of the JCPOA, in addition to the other sanctions that remain in place.
Despite that, according to a new op-ed published this week, Iran’s oil exports are “surging.”
“Despite war and sanctions, Iran’s oil exports surge,” Saeed Ghasseminejab and Behnam Ben Taleblu write this week for The Hill, noting that despite everything else that happened, Iran’s oil exports “surged” in the first six months of 2025.
Both authors work for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, where Ghasseminejad is a senior advisor on Iran and financial economics, and Taleblu is senior director of the Iran program. Both are longtime critics of the Iranian regime, co-authoring another op-ed earlier this month warning that the Iranian regime is seeking to assassinate President Donald Trump.
“IF Washington is serious about dismantling Iran’s nuclear weapons program and rolling back the spectrum of threats the regime poses, according to President Trump’s national security memorandum, more will be needed, and quickly,” the authors write.
Oil Promises
The authors note that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged earlier this year to reduce Iran’s oil exports to “nearly zero,” but that has not been achieved. Iran is now exporting more oil than it did at the start of this year, when Joe Biden was still president.
“According to data available for purchase from Tankertrackers, Iran exported nearly 1.7 million barrels per day in June 2025 of crude oil, condensates, and fuel oil, resulting in a total of more than 50 million barrels worth an estimated $3.6 billion,” the Hill op-ed authors write. “These revenues will be used to fund oppression at home and aggression abroad, as well as to rebuild Iran’s shattered air defenses, missile capacity, and terror networks.”
Iran, they argue, exported 1.67 million barrels per day in crude oil between February and June of this year, 37 percent more than in January. President Trump, in his first term, had applied what was described as “maximum pressure,” which led to a decrease in exports, but this approach has not continued.
“Maximum pressure was so effective in Trump’s first term that Iran’s president and oil minister claimed that the sanctions were more damaging to oil exports than the Iran-Iraq War had been in the 1980s. No officials are making these claims today,” Ghasseminejad and Taleblu write.
Who is Buying the Iran Oil?
According to the analysis, China and the United Arab Emirates are the “primary destinations” for Iranian oil exports.
How are they doing this?
“The reasons for Iran’s continued export capacity are many. Beyond Iran’s evolving sanctions-busting capabilities, Washington’s insistence on a deal throughout 2025 incentivized illicit shippers and buyers to stay in the sanctions-busting game, assuming a deal may be close,” the authors write. Also, for a time in May and June, there was a “pause” on Iranian sanctions enforcement, which the Wall Street Journal argued against in a June editorial.
What Can Be Done?
The two op-ed authors have some ideas about putting the pressure back on.
“The U.S. Treasury could expand its list of targets to include major ports, banks, and any firms involved in this illicit trade, particularly those with an international presence. Washington can also designate board members, C-suite level executives, shareholders, and ultimate beneficial owners,” they write.
“But lawfare is only one component of economic statecraft. To effectively take down Tehran’s oil export network as part of a comprehensive strategy against the Islamic Republic, the U.S. will need to leverage all elements of national power.”
This, they suggest, could include both covert options, or the Navy seizing vessels transporting the oil.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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