Key Points and Summary – The U.S. Navy is facing a severe shipbuilding and maintenance crisis at the very moment China’s naval power is surging.
America’s shipbuilding industry, which has declined since the Cold War, is plagued by workforce shortages and aging infrastructure, leading to chronic delays and budget overruns for new vessels.
The situation is so dire that the Navy is reportedly 20 years behind schedule on maintaining its existing fleet.
While the Navy has an ambitious 30-year plan to rebuild, its fleet is currently shrinking, raising serious doubts about its readiness to counter a rapidly expanding Chinese Navy.
Can The Navy Rekindle Its Shipbuilding Industry?
The US Navy is in a bad spot to rebuild its force for modern warfare against near-peer adversaries like China and Russia.
It is a complex issue with various perspectives and challenges, some of which the Navy has no control over. The shipbuilding industry in the United States is one of the cornerstones of the nation’s security and economic resilience.
However, global shifts in industry and supply chain trends threaten its competitiveness and ability to meet growing demands. And the US government allowed its shipbuilding industry to fade on the vine.
However, the shipbuilding industry has its strengths and benefits from public sector initiatives aimed at revitalizing its infrastructure and workforce.
It does need a shot in the arm to improve its fading infrastructure and to create new jobs to bring the skilled workers needed back to the industry.
The Navy and the Department of Defense are taking steps to help private companies with shipbuilding. For example, they’ve invested billions to help increase shipbuilding capacity, such as helping with infrastructure improvements at shipyards and workforce development, according to the GAO’s Shelby Oakley.
China’s Navy Has Advantages In Ships:
The Chinese have invested heavily in its Navy (PLAN) and its Coast Guard forces. Currently their navy is concentrating in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the First and Second Island Chains.
The PLAN has surpassed the US Navy in the total number of ships, including both surface combatants and submarines. They have the world’s largest navy by ship count.
And while the US Navy has fewer ships overall, it possesses a larger tonnage of ships and a greater number of larger, more capable vessels.
There they have harassed smaller nations’ ships and belligerently seized small islands that they lay claim to and stuck bases there. They are growing impatient about reuniting with Taiwan, and have told their military to be ready to go to war in 2027, presumably to take Taiwan.
That would most certainly entail a war with the United States. China has the long-range missiles to attack US bases in Guam. the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, and Australia.
Would the US Navy, split between the Atlantic and Pacific, have enough sea and air power to thwart a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and all that it would entail?
Currently, the Navy lacks sufficient capacity to meet both its worldwide presence and crisis response requirements. One factor to keep in mind is that if China attacks the US and Japan and South Korea join the US, then China’s numerical advantage is rendered moot.
Taiwan is so close to mainland China that it can afford to keep its one main aircraft carrier and two smaller ones close to shore and still engage US carriers.
The Navy’s Plans For 2025 And Beyond:
The Navy has a clear goal: its 2025 plan aims for a larger fleet (381 manned ships and 134 unmanned vessels) with more distributed firepower. To achieve its goal of 381 battle force ships, the Navy would buy 364 vessels over the next 30 years—293 combat ships and 71 combat logistics and support vessels.
Significant investment is underway in shipbuilding, with the budget nearly doubling over the past two decades.
A focus on advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, autonomy, cyber resilience, and unmanned systems, is intended to enhance capabilities and accelerate modernization.
The Navy is working to streamline acquisition processes and integrate commercially available technologies faster.
Concerns and Challenges:
Weak shipbuilding industrial base: The US shipbuilding capacity has significantly declined since the Cold War, struggling with workforce shortages, aging infrastructure, and a reliance on a limited number of specialized yards.
Shipbuilding programs are consistently over budget and behind schedule, with some ships facing delays of up to three years.
Collaboration with allies like Japan and South Korea could help address shipbuilding challenges.
With the US building larger ships and its shipyards geared more toward these larger vessels, Japan and South Korea could take up the mantle of building smaller vessels, such as corvettes and frigates.
The Navy is reportedly 20 years behind schedule in maintaining its existing fleet, which could lead to the potential decommissioning of viable ships. That is unacceptable.
The Navy’s fleet is projected to decrease in size over the next few years before eventually growing, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The 2025 shipbuilding plan is estimated to cost significantly more than previous plans, requiring a substantial increase in the Navy’s overall budget.
The Navy’s ability to deter and respond to threats effectively is questioned, with concerns about its readiness for sustained combat operations against near-peer adversaries, notes the War on the Rocks website.
There are concerns about the Navy’s capacity to repair ships damaged in combat, which would be crucial in a conflict with a near-peer adversary.
The US Navy is actively working to rebuild and modernize its force for modern warfare, with ambitious goals and significant investments in technology.
However, significant challenges remain in shipbuilding capacity, workforce, costs, and maintenance that have slowed shipbuilding to a crawl.
The success of the Navy’s rebuilding efforts will likely depend on its ability to overcome these challenges and effectively adapt to the evolving geopolitical landscape and technological advancements.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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