Summary and Key Points: For three years, Moscow watched the war it started from a safe distance. That’s over. Ukraine’s long-range drones are now reaching the Russian capital — hitting refineries, defense plants, and logistics hubs, and puncturing the city’s sense of immunity. And the clearest sign of how rattled the Kremlin has become wasn’t a strike at all. It was what Putin no longer felt safe putting on display, on the one day Russia exists to flaunt its military might.
The Ukraine War Is Doing Damage Now in Moscow
As Ukraine ramps up its long-range strike campaign against targets across Russia, one of the most high-profile targets has been Russia’s capital city: Moscow itself. Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s political and economic hub have hit a wide range of targets, ranging from energy infrastructure, defense-related production sites, transportation nodes, and some residential buildings. Though the primary target in these strikes appears to put pressure on Russian military and energy targets, some civilian property has also been struck in the suburbs of Moscow and in the heart of Moscow itself.
What Ukraine has Hit — Refineries and Military Targets
Arguably, some of the more important targets struck in the Moscow region have been an oil refinery, fuel-loading infrastructure, and a plant in Zelenograd, to the northwest of Moscow, that supplies the Russian defense sector. Reporting indicates that a refinery in Moscow was forced to halt operations after an attack on May 17th, directly affecting fuel output. Other reports have mentioned fires at fuel sites and disruption at Sheremetyevo airport, hinting that Ukraine is also interested in disrupting Russian civilian and military logistics rather than energy or military infrastructure sites only.
What Ukraine has hit — Civilian Sites as Well
Some Ukrainian drones have hit civilian buildings, particularly in attacks nearer to the Moscow city center. One drone reportedly hit a high-rise building in Moscow just days before the city’s annual Victory Day parade commemorating the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany during World War Two. That attack damaged several of the building’s upper floors, but there were no reported injuries.
The Effect on Moscow
Though the effect on the population is difficult to gauge with certainty, it would be hard to believe that a general mood of anxiety, perhaps accompanied by uncertainty and fear, has not become more pervasive. Airports have temporarily suspended operations, and some flights have been canceled or diverted elsewhere. Though not an acute crisis, this has, no doubt, created a headache for some residents and contributed to feelings of fear or irritation. In the Moscow region, access to fuel has become both more difficult and more expensive, and the areas serviced by products refined near Moscow have likely felt significant downstream effects.
Victory Day Disruptions
Arguably, one of the most immediate — and visible — effects of what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dubbed Ukraine’s “long-range sanctions” has been the most subdued, scaled-down Victory Day parade in Moscow in a generation. Security concerns curbed the day’s festivities, which avoided the ostentatious display of some of Russia’s newest military kit, a staple of the parade since Soviet times.
Though normally high-profile guests include the leaders of some of the world’s more significant countries, there were few heads of state in attendance, but there were a plethora of military and security personnel, particularly anti-drone air defenses.
Even though Ukraine did not launch or land a strike on Red Square or the Victory Day parade, the severe curtailing of the day’s typical festivities was strong evidence of the vulnerability felt in the Russian capital, even the uncertainty felt by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.
Changes to Moscow’s Air Defenses?
Ukrainian strikes have almost certainly forced a reshuffling of Russian air defenses. During the May 9th Victory Day parade, airport restrictions were tightened, checkpoints throughout the city increased, the Kremlin’s protection detail appeared to be reinforced, and security teams peppered the capital.
Though in the midst of an internet crackdown aimed at eliminating online privacy entirely, Russian authorities also tightened mobile internet and communications access in Moscow during the parade in order to disrupt the guidance of an anticipated drone attack. Moscow’s air defenses are therefore partly about stopping attack drones and partly about controlling access to the digital information necessary for a successful strike.
The Overall Pattern
Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s biggest city are punches to Russia’s soft and seemingly vulnerable rear area: fuel storage and refining capacity, industry linked to defense and weapons, air traffic and logistics, and occasional damage to residential buildings.
Perhaps the biggest effect thus far has been fuel disruption and pressure on airports and air traffic.
But the disruption to Moscow’s sense of immunity from the effects of this war has also been severely jarred. A Victory Day parade without huge displays is something few Muscovites have ever seen. Perhaps there will be more such Victory Day abbreviations in the future.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines in the Donbas and writing about its civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
