Russia and Ukraine have now been at war for nearly four and a half years, and the war shows no signs of ending anytime soon. There haven’t even been direct peace talks for several months, after the sessions between the sides earlier this year were less than fruitful.
And with the growing role of drone warfare, and now Russia launching ballistic missiles on a regular basis, the war has gotten more and more deadly, with nearly daily reports of civilian casualties.
T-90M Russian Army. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
T-90 Tank from Ukraine War. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Is there any stopping the escalation?
According to an analysis published this week by The Week, “more and more civilians are being killed on both sides.”
“A Shift in the War”
The Week cited a recent piece in the Independent about the strike earlier this week on a beach in Gelendzhik on the Black Sea, where seven Russian civilians were killed, including three children. The newspaper described it as a possible “shift in the war.”
Sam Kiley, the Independent’s world affairs editor, noted that “tragedies will multiply – and that’s not the only worry.”
He notes that a similar attack, had it been Russia killing Ukrainian children on a beach, would likely have provoked greater international outrage- and that it’s possible that, as Ukraine begins to strike further into Russia, such similar tragedies are likely to occur.
“Ukraine does not have a policy of attacking civilian targets,” Kiley writes. “Russia does.” However, the way Ukraine has been fighting the war of late, especially with long-range drones and attacks on Wildberries facilities as a big part of the strategy, accidental civilian killings are likely to happen more.
What of Trump’s Role?
During the 2024 campaign, President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to end the war on his first day back in office, doing so more than 50 times, CNN pointed out last year. That swift end didn’t happen, nor has Trump had any success to speak of in even slowing the war down.
Mostly preoccupied with other foreign policy priorities, most recently the war in Iran, Trump has also vacillated between pushing Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky to quickly agree to end the war and showing more support for the Ukrainian cause. More recently, Trump has gone back and forth on whether to make Patriot missile interceptor licenses available to Ukraine.
“A Dangerous Escalatory Spiral”
Earlier this week, a New York Times op-ed called on Trump to take a more active role- and bring about an end to the fighting at last.
The author of the op-ed, Thomas E. Graham, was a Russia advisor to former President George W. Bush and is now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Graham argues that while Trump has been preoccupied with Iran, both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been clear that they would like for Trump to re-engage with Russia and Ukraine, and to “start intensive negotiations to bring the fighting to an end.”
Part of the case for Trump to get more involved, Graham writes, is that the conflict has recently entered “a dangerous escalatory spiral,” with Ukraine striking deeper inside Russia and the Russians stepping up attacks on Ukraine’s cities, most recently the missile attacks that struck the Kyiv region and killed 17 people.
On top of the pain and death in Russia and Ukraine, there are also fears that the war could spill into Europe, including occasional, possibly accidental missile crossings into Poland, a NATO country.
But the war, Graham argues, is “ripe for resolution,” as both sides are incentivized to bring it to an end.
“Each day the war continues, the future looks grimmer,” Graham writes. “If it stopped today, however, each side could claim victory.”
Trump is advised by the author to send his negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to engage in shuttle diplomacy, visiting both Kyiv and Moscow, to encourage the two sides to reach a deal.
A New (Unofficial) Peace Effort
Meanwhile, there’s another effort at bringing about peace, albeit an unofficial one led by former officials.
According to Bloomberg News, a group of former officials from the U.K., France, Germany, and Russia met in Vienna to “explore potential conditions for peace talks” between Russia and Ukraine.
MORE – How Ukraine Can Truly Beat Putin
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
