Key Points and Summary – Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen is rugged, affordable to sustain, and designed for dispersed ops—qualities Ukraine prizes as it rebuilds its air arm. Strong EW, sensors, and road-base agility are real advantages.
-But big hurdles loom: pilot and maintainer training, new infrastructure, production pace, and a price tag rivaling fifth-gen options.
JAS 39 Gripen. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Without stealth, Gripen must lean on tactics, jamming, and weapons to survive modern air defenses.
-If Saab scales output and Ukraine fields the jets rapidly, the bet could pay off—interoperable with NATO and immediately useful. If delays stack up, costs and timing may undercut the case before the jets arrive.
The JAS 39 Gripen Fighter Is Great But…
We cover Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen extensively at National Security Journal and for good reasons.
This is an underrated, high-quality airplane.
It is suitable for air policing NATO borders, ground attack, or force-on-force aerial combat. But it lacks stealth abilities, and it is not a fifth-generation fighter jet.
Are the walls closing in on the Gripen?
JAS 39 Gripen by Saab. Image Credit: Saab.
Does it have a murky future?
JAS 39 Gripen
There are green shoots for the Gripen. Ukraine has ordered the JAS 39. That’s an understatement. It has agreed to buy a whopping 150 JAS 39s from Sweden (although the order could be shrunk to 120 airplanes).
Ukraine is pegging its future on the Gripen. Canada may also purchase the Swedish-made fighter.
This will keep Saab’s production lines running and ensure many Swedish aerospace workers have high-paying jobs in the future.
The deal may also pique the interest of other governments seeking a 4.5-generation fighter capable of creating air superiority and multi-mission capabilities.
There Is Much to Like About the JAS 39
The Gripen has much upside. It can take off from roads.
This allows it to be decentralized and distributed across Ukraine, making it better protected against attacks on the main air bases.
Maintenance costs are affordable. Saab has an excellent reputation for quality, and it is adept at providing parts and components to support workable supply chains.
The Gripen comes equipped with an outstanding radar and sensor package. The types and numbers of weapons are diversified and robust. Electronic warfare systems are being modernized to improve the ability to spoof and jam enemy aircraft and missiles.
JAS 39 Gripen E. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
This will give Ukrainian pilots an edge in dogfights and ground strikes, protecting borders in defense and taking the fight to adversaries on offense.
The JAS 39 also integrates well with Ukraine’s future air force.
While many of Ukraine’s fighter jets are older Soviet models, the Gripen will set the standard for what the air force aims to accomplish in aerial battles and land-attack missions.
The Gripen sends a message to NATO that Ukraine’s air force would measure up to existing partners if Ukraine ever becomes a member of the alliance.
The Gripens will be readily interoperable with allies. The Ukrainians are also showing that they can be self-sustaining with the airplane order and stand on their own two feet without the necessity to depend on handouts.
But Not All Is Rosy With This Warplane
There are downsides.
The Swedish air force will have to train Ukrainian pilots on the new aircraft. While the Ukrainians have taken well to American F-16s, the Gripen is entirely new.
There could be a long delay until all aviators are rated on the Gripen. Sweden does not have a long track record of exports because it recently joined NATO.
There may be long lead times before the Ukrainians are ready to fly Gripens regularly. The war could be over by the time the pilots are qualified to operate the Gripen.
How fast can Saab produce 150 Gripens?
JAS 39 Gripen Front and Center. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
This is a tall order, and it is not clear how long it will take. Let’s say Saab could produce three Gripens per month. Quick arithmetic shows it would require 50 months or more than 4 years.
Is this too long to help the Ukrainians create air dominance against Russia? Again, the war could be concluded by the time all the Gripens would be delivered.
The Gripens Have a High Price Tag
Can Ukraine afford this deal? The Ukrainian ground forces have been devastated. The treasury cupboard is bare. The cost of the Gripen order could range from $12 billion to $22 billion.
This would cover the price of the airplanes plus training, support, parts and components, and maintenance. But that is still a considerable sum for a small country decimated by war.
The Gripen will cost about $85 million apiece. At that price, Ukraine could have purchased F-35s. Why wouldn’t they invest in a fifth-generation stealth warplane? To afford the Gripen, the Ukrainians are looking to use frozen Russian financial assets, but that deal has not yet been finalized.
The Stealth F-35 Would Have Been a Better Choice
The Gripen’s lack of stealth bothers me, and it will be a consideration for other countries that prefer more radar evasion in their fighters. Many NATO members have chosen the F-35 for that reason. The Ukrainians will also have to create the modern infrastructure for the new jet. That means basing, new hangars, and flight line preparation. Maintenance crews must be trained and prepped.
Meanwhile, Russia is forging ahead with its Su-57 Felon program. The Felon has not been an enormous difference-maker against Ukraine, but it may be better than a Gripen in a dogfight. Russia is also developing the sixth-generation MiG-41/PAK DP and could be close to deploying that fighter before the 150 Gripens can be produced.
Can the Swedes Execute This Deal and Deliver the Goods?
The JAS 39 deal with Ukraine is excellent news for the Swedes.
There will be ample numbers of high-paying jobs in Sweden to fulfill this order. Other countries will be impressed and could order the Gripen too. But Saab could be a victim of its own success. Pilots and air crews must be trained.
New infrastructure must be built. A supply chain for new parts and components, and other logistical needs, must be established. The production rate could slow, and the war could be over by the time Sweden can build Gripen in numbers to consummate the deal.
While the Gripen is a good 4.5-generation warbird, for what the Ukrainians are paying, they could have bought radar-evading F-35s. The Israelis have shown that their F-35I may be the world’s best combat aircraft. The Gripen is good, but it remains to be seen if it can become great. The Ukrainian pilots must be flying at the highest level to become qualified on the Gripen, and this will take time.
The Gripen must also be able to take the fight to the enemy at all times, and it remains to be seen whether this is an airplane that just looks good on paper or can turn the tide of the war when it comes online.
The global aerospace community will be watching to see if Ukraine made the correct decision.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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