Key Points and Summary – Many aviation enthusiasts believe the YF-23 was superior to the F-22 and that the Air Force made a historic mistake by not choosing it.
-However, a sour truth remains: even if the YF-23 had won the competition, it would have made no strategic difference.
YF-23 National Security Journal Photo. Taken by Harry J. Kazianis at U.S. Air Force Museum on 7/19/2025.
YF-23 National Security Journal Photo. Taken by Harry J. Kazianis at U.S. Air Force Museum on 7/19/2025.
-Being even more advanced and likely more expensive than the F-22, the YF-23’s production would have almost certainly been cut short for the same budgetary reasons, resulting in a small, boutique fleet.
Technology alone doesn’t win wars, and the YF-23 was ultimately doomed to the same fate as its rival.
The YF-23 Black Widow II Hype Never Mattered
The Northrop YF-23 Black Widow II was a prototype stealth fighter that competed against the YF-22 (later F-22) in the Advanced Tactical Fighter (ATF) competition. The fighter boasted several innovative and interesting design elements that enhanced its stealth and flight capabilities.
Several decades later, many analysts and experts alike imagined what would have happened if the YF-23 had beaten the F-22 and been accepted into service.
However, the sour truth is that the YF-23 may not have had the magical effect that many like to think it would have had.
Should the YF-23 have Been Accepted into Service?
Ever since the YF-23 ATF program, analysts and experts have engaged in hypothetical scenarios imagining what could have happened if the fighter were chosen over the F-22 Raptor.
Many argue that the YF-23 had superior capabilities to the F-22 and was unfairly snubbed, and that had the YF-23 been accepted, the Air Force would have been in a much better position.
Engaging in this sort of thinking can be fun and compelling at times, but I feel that these kinds of conversations can often lead to fallacious assumptions.
YF-23 at U.S. Air Force Museum Photo by NSJ. Taken on 7/19/2025 by Harry J. Kazianis.
YF-23 National Security Journal Photo. Taken by Harry J. Kazianis at U.S. Air Force Museum on 7/19/2025.
YF-23 National Security Journal Photo. Taken by Harry J. Kazianis at U.S. Air Force Museum on 7/19/2025.
The West, especially the United States, is extremely proud of its technological superiority and rightfully so. Without a doubt, America’s defense industry is one of the most sophisticated in the world.
However, what I think many misunderstand is that technology alone does not win wars. I don’t blame people for thinking this.
America’s performance in the Gulf War highlighted just how vital technological superiority can be. However, many commentators and armchair generals mistakenly assume that technology, in and of itself, can ensure victory.
Technology Won’t Save Us
The War on Terror is a good example of this. The F-22 flow thousands of missions targeting ISIS and Al-Qaeda and despite performing very effective strikes, the terrorists were never truly defeated.
More recently, the brief conflict with the Houthis in the Red Sea exemplifies this perfectly. The U.S. squared off with the hilariously outgunned Houthis with the most advanced fighter jets and with an ocean-ruling Navy; on paper, the U.S. should have won.
However, after months of playing whack-a-mole in the Red Sea, the Navy was forced to back down after running out of munitions with the Houthis still standing.
Back of YF-23 Fighter. Image Credit: National Security Journal.
YF-23. Image by National Security Journal Taken on 7/19/2025.
YF-23 photo by Harry J. Kazianis at the U.S. Air Force Museum. Taken 7/19/2025.
Furthermore, with outdated Soviet technology, the Houthis were able to detect and fire at an F-35 stealth fighter, a feat which further signifies the limitations of our technology.
Another thing that many people often overlook is that technology is subject to economic realities.
Having the most advanced tanks and fighter jets is nice, but these projects often come at an extremely high cost, limiting their production numbers and, by extension, their battlefield impact.
Russia learned this lesson the hard way with their T-14 Armata tank.
The T-14 is, on paper, a technologically advanced design that incorporates many innovative features into the platform.
However, the problem was that Russian industry was not yet ready to produce such a tank in large numbers, nor was the state ready to fund it.
Many analysts laughed at the Russians, and yet project after project has meet similar fates in the U.S. at the expense of billions of taxpayer dollars.
What Would Have Happened if the F-22 Lost?
What would have happened if the YF-23 had been accepted into service?
Most likely, it would have ended up similarly to the F-22.
Despite being one of the most advanced planes in the U.S.’ current arsenal, the F-22’s production lines were ended early due to its ridiculously high price tag.
Though the F-22 has been the subject of numerous debates, its fate is already sealed.
X-32 and YF-23 Together at U.S. Air Force Museum. Image: National Security Journal.
YF-23 Black Widow II from National Security Journal Photo Shoot.
YF-23 Black Widow II Up Close National Security Journal Photo.
It will remain in service until the 2040s, when the F-47 will replace it. I see no reason to believe that the YF-23, a fighter often considered more advanced than the F-22, would not have faced a similar fate.
The YF-23 may have been an impressive aircraft, and by all accounts it was, but my point here is that the YF-23 would not have solved any of the problems that the Air Force now finds itself in.
The Black Widow II would not have stopped ISIS from terrorizing the Middle East, it would not have stopped Russia from invading Ukraine, and it would not have stopped China’s economic boom.
It might have performed better than the F-22 in some cases, but the result would be the same.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
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