When Russia escalated its air campaign against Ukraine with Zircon hypersonic missile strikes on Kyiv and other major urban population centers earlier this month, it was clearer than ever that an escalation was underway. Moscow said the strikes were a retaliation for recent Ukrainian long-range drone and missile barrages that continue to impact its war economy – particularly its energy industry.
The strikes followed days of warnings from Russian officials that foreign diplomats in Kyiv were unsafe, but now it looks as though the escalation may not end there. It could be about to get much bigger, and it looks like it has already started.
Putin Back in 10-2024 Russian Government Image
Major Russian Strikes Are Increasing In Intensity and Frequency
Russia’s recent attacks are notable not just for their frequency, but for their sheer scale and the diversity of the weapons being used.
During the recent June 2 barrage, Ukraine’s Air Force claimed that Russia launched 729 long-range weapons overnight. The assault reportedly included 656 Shahed attack drones and decoys, 33 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 27 Kh-101 cruise missiles, eight 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles, and five Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea.
Kyiv wasn’t the only target. Major cities like Dnipro, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia were also heavily impacted by the strikes, and reports suggest at least 17 people were killed in the attacks and a further 100 were injured.
Damage extended beyond military and administrative infrastructure, with reports describing severe damage to critical civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. It was the use of Zircons that was particularly interesting, though.
These are weapons designed primarily to destroy naval targets at high speeds, but which have since been repurposed for attacks inside Ukraine. It’s clearer now than ever that Moscow knows Ukraine has the ability to fight back, and that using its most high-value and destructive weapons is now warranted. Zircons are expensive and limited in numbers, but their destructive power – and the sheer terror they inflict – now make them necessary for Russia to prove it has the ability to win.
This wasn’t the only recent incident, either. Russia has repeatedly launched hundreds of drones in a single night, and has typically described each of the strikes as a response to Ukrainian “acts of terror.”
In other words, Moscow isn’t happy that the war is no longer being conducted on its terms.
Russia Turns to Strategic Weapons
Russian forces have largely attempted to avoid expending their most valuable weapons and assets on the battlefield for as long as possible. But now, with Ukraine proving its ability to strike right at the heart of Russia’s energy industry, that’s changing.
On May 24, 2026, Moscow launched one of its biggest aerial assaults of the war and, for only the third time in the conflict, employed the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. The overnight attack reportedly involved 600 drones and 90 missiles, striking Kyiv and other major urban population centers. At least four people were killed nationwide, and more than 80 were injured.
Putin July of 2024. Image Credit from Russian Government
The scale of the attack was large, yes, but the use of the Oreshnik was particularly notable because it is a nuclear-capable ballistic missile that is more commonly associated with Russia’s strategic deterrent forces than it is with conventional warfare in Ukraine. While it was reportedly fitted with a conventional warhead, its use prompted alarm across Europe. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas responded to the strike by accusing Moscow of engaging in a “political scare-tactic and reckless nuclear brinkmanship.”
Russia is losing momentum on the front lines and is now more vulnerable than ever, with legislation even recently being passed that permits private institutions like banks to engage in air-defense efforts against Ukrainian drones. Escalation has begun, and it’s unclear if Moscow even knows how far it will need to go to force Kyiv to back down – if that’s even possible.
Is Nuclear Infrastructure Off Limits?
It’s hard to know how far Moscow will go, but it’s already evident that it is willing to strike sensitive targets.
On June 7, Ukrainian authorities reported that a Russian Shahed drone struck the Central Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility that is located within the Chornobyl exclusion zone.
Putin Is Speaking Image from Russian Federation Government End of 2024
The facility stores used nuclear fuel from reactors across Ukraine and is roughly nine miles from the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi responded to the strikes, noting that the situation is “very fragile.”
“Over the past days, the plant suffered its 18th offsite power outage since the war began. With a duration of 15-hours, it was also one of its longest, necessitating the use of emergency diesel generators to cool the six shut down reactors until offsite power was restored on Saturday morning,” Grossi also said.
Whether it’s a sign of more to come or an effort to scare the Ukrainian side, it’s clear that the escalation has already begun.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
