Key Points and Summary: Despite recent optimism, President Trump’s push for a quick Ukraine peace deal is facing significant obstacles as the reality of the diplomatic situation sets in.
-Russia is publicly playing down the likelihood of an imminent summit between Putin and Zelenskyy, and Trump himself now admits the conflict is “a tough one,” questioning if Putin truly wants a deal.
-The two nations remain far apart on core issues, with Moscow insisting on “maximalist” conditions including major territorial concessions, Ukrainian neutrality, and the lifting of sanctions—terms Kyiv is unwilling to accept, suggesting a rapid resolution is unlikely.
No Ukraine Peace Deal? The Path Forward
President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday, and with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday, as part of his continuing push to end the war between the countries. Trump has been touting the possibility of a framework involving security guarantees for Ukraine, while also suggesting there is potential for ending the war soon.
However, there are indications now that it won’t be quite so easy.
The next step, at least in Trump’s thinking, is a bilateral meeting between the two leaders, or possibly a trilateral meeting with Trump also present. However, per The BBC, the Russian side “has played down talk of an imminent summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, as Donald Trump renewed his call for the two leaders to meet to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.”
Trump, who came back into office declaring that he would end the war on his first day back, now says that the conflict is “a tough one.”
“We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks,” Trump said in a Tuesday morning interview on Fox and Friends. “It’s possible that he doesn’t want to make a deal.”
Also in that Fox interview, the president talked up the possibility of security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential settlement, but vowed that such arrangements would not involve U.S. ground troops.
“There’ll be some form of security. It can’t be NATO,” he said on Fox. “They’re willing to put people on the ground. We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably, if you could talk about by air.”
But Trump promised that this would not include a ground force. “You have my assurance. You know, I’m president.”
What Each Side is Demanding
The Washington Post on Wednesday looked at what Russia and Ukraine have demanded in order to bring the war to a close, reporting that the two countries “appear to remain far apart on what terms they would accept to end the war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”
Trump, per the newspaper, said after the Putin meeting in Alaska that “many points were agreed to” and “very few” remain, while declaring peace “within reach” after his sitdown with Zelenskyy.
However, the reality seems a bit more complicated than that.
Per the Post, Putin “has maintained maximalist conditions for any potential settlement to the bloodiest war in Europe since World War II. Ukraine and Russia remain at an impasse over key issues, including the matter of a ceasefire as negotiations proceed, Russian demands that Ukraine cede territory and security guarantees for a postwar Ukraine.”
The two sides remain very far apart on the issue of land, with Russia wanting not only the entirety of the Eastern regions of Ukraine, but international recognition of such sovereignty, something Ukraine strongly opposes.
Russia has also demanded that Ukraine be demilitarized and that Ukraine remain neutral, rather than joining NATO, also things that Ukraine is unwilling to accept.
Trump himself said in a social media post last week that there is “no getting back” Crimea and “NO GOING INTO NATO.”
No More Sanctions?
Russia would also like relief from the numerous rounds of sanctions placed on it by the U.S., European Union, and other entities since the war began.
“U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia by the Biden administration have weakened the Russian economy and hindered its military sector. Trump has signaled a willingness to discuss easing sanctions as part of a peace deal,” the Post said.
“Publicly, the Kremlin maintains that all sanctions are illegal and must be lifted. Privately, however, Moscow would welcome any relief from U.S. sanctions, as it would undermine Western unity in enforcing economic restrictions, according to analysts. Russia is particularly interested in lifting restrictions on transnational payments and the sale of gas and oil.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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