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Ukraine War

Think Ukraine Should Join NATO? It Could Mean a Nuclear War

F-16 like used in Ukraine
A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon departs after receiving fuel from a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker, assigned to the 50th Expeditionary Aircraft Refueling Squadron, during an air refueling mission over Southwest Asia, Dec. 22, 2020. The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a compact, multirole fighter aircraft that delivers airpower to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Trevor T. McBride)

What Would Ukrainian NATO Membership Actually Mean?: After the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian people want security guarantees and mutual defense from allies more than anything.

This means joining NATO as soon as possible. Ukraine has aimed for entering the alliance since they achieved independence after the Cold War. Kyiv wants to remain in the Western orbit with membership into the European Union as well. But will these aspirations protect the country against Russia?

U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons intercept two U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancers during exercise Amalgam Dart 21-2, March 23, 2021. The exercise will run from March 20-26 and range from the Beaufort Sea to Thule, Greenland and extend south down the Eastern Atlantic to the U.S. coast of Maine. Amalgam Dart 21-2 provides NORAD the opportunity to hone homeland defense skills as Canadian, U.S., and NATO forces operate together in the Arctic. A bi-national Canadian and American command, NORAD employs network space-based, aerial and ground based sensors, air-to-air refueling tankers, and fighter aircraft controlled by a sophisticated command and control network to deter, detect and defend against aerial threats that originate outside or within North American airspace. NATO E-3 Early Warning Aircraft, Royal Canadian Air Force CF-18 fighter aircraft, CP-140 long-range patrol aircraft, CC-130 search and rescue and tactical aircraft, and a CC-150T air refueler; as well as U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft, KC-10 Extender refueler, KC-46 Pegasus, KC-135 Stratotanker, as well as C-130 and C-17 transport aircraft will participate in the exercise. (U.S. Air National Guard courtesy photo)

U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons intercept two U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancers during exercise Amalgam Dart 21-2, March 23, 2021. The exercise will run from March 20-26 and range from the Beaufort Sea to Thule, Greenland and extend south down the Eastern Atlantic to the U.S. coast of Maine. Amalgam Dart 21-2 provides NORAD the opportunity to hone homeland defense skills as Canadian, U.S., and NATO forces operate together in the Arctic. A bi-national Canadian and American command, NORAD employs network space-based, aerial and ground based sensors, air-to-air refueling tankers, and fighter aircraft controlled by a sophisticated command and control network to deter, detect and defend against aerial threats that originate outside or within North American airspace. NATO E-3 Early Warning Aircraft, Royal Canadian Air Force CF-18 fighter aircraft, CP-140 long-range patrol aircraft, CC-130 search and rescue and tactical aircraft, and a CC-150T air refueler; as well as U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft, KC-10 Extender refueler, KC-46 Pegasus, KC-135 Stratotanker, as well as C-130 and C-17 transport aircraft will participate in the exercise. (U.S. Air National Guard courtesy photo)

Renewal of the Russian Empire

Vladimir Putin and many of his countrymen ache for a renewal of the Russian empire. These zealots do not believe that Ukraine is a legitimate, sovereign country. They want Ukraine to be part of Russia and Volodymyr Zelensky’s government to be toppled. Their efforts at regime change in Kyiv did not work in the initial invasion. Now it becomes a matter of holding territory in the Donbas region forever. The Kremlin will also never give up Crimea.

NATO Will Have to Wait Until the War Ends

This leaves Ukraine without the assurance that they will be protected after the war. So, NATO and European Union accession is the goal post-war. Zelensky would even like to join NATO now. This would be a redline for Russia and would endanger any effort at peace talks. The United States, which had been against immediate Ukrainian membership in NATO, is now warming to the idea. But accession means the agreement of all NATO members. Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey may object, and these governments would need some arm twisting to approve Ukraine’s membership.

Ukraine Joining NATO Risks a Multinational War on the European Continent

Will that make a difference to peace in Eastern Europe if NATO membership is possible?

Russia is not likely to stop fighting and the alliance has the stipulation of Article 5 collective mutual defense assurances. An attack on one NATO country (Ukraine) or war with a belligerent nation (Russia) would mean that the alliance would also fight in unity against Putin’s military. Giving arms and monetary aid to Ukraine is one thing, but actually entering into a fighting war with Russia is quite a different undertaking.

The Russians Could Use Nuclear Weapons

The first reason to keep Ukraine out of NATO is that Putin controls a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons – about 5,500 nuclear warheads. He could easily order his forces to explode a tactical nuclear weapon at the front against Ukraine. He also has a robust nuclear triad that could be used against the United States.

Russia’s Military Is Down But Not Out

The next aspect of international security is the Russian military itself. The country has lost around 600,000 personnel in Ukraine, but it could institute a full mobilization of its populace. That means an even bigger draft with hundreds of thousands of more soldiers. Russia also has its air force and navy mostly intact. They would not be afraid of using these assets against NATO members.

What Is NATO’s Next Move?

So, the alliance is in a tough spot. Admit Ukraine and face the consequences of continental war with Russia. Or, dismiss Zelensky’s request to join NATO and lose an important driver of peace negotiations. Zelensky might actually go to the table with Putin if he knew Ukraine was in NATO. He would have to give up territory in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, but Russia could give up land in Kursk in return.

Korea-like Armistice and DMZ

This is why I fall back on my original peace plan between the two countries. This plan would create a Korea-like armistice and demilitarized zone between Ukraine and Russia to be administered by the United Nations. Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance has signaled support for this idea. The problem is NATO. Zelensky wants to join, and Putin would never allow it.

Ukraine’s NATO Membership Is a Bridge Too Far

Thus, Ukraine’s yearning to join NATO may not happen. Members are not ready to trigger Article 5 and the requirement to fight Russia in a multi-national effort. However, there could be a way to amend the treaty to remove Article 5, but this is the biggest stipulation that keeps Russia in check. The alliance would lose its teeth without Article 5.

NATO is the biggest hurdle between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky won’t stop fighting without membership, and Putin would never allow it. NATO membership may have to be put on the back burner even though many in Brussels and other European capitals support it. I predict no NATO membership for Ukraine while combat still rages. It is too big of a threat to incentivize Russia to use a tactical nuclear weapon. This could create a situation that no NATO country wants to imagine.

Therefore, NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table, no matter how much Zelensky wants it.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Brent M. Eastwood
Written By

Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

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  1. Pingback: Putin the Desperate: North Korea Is Going to War in Ukraine - NationalSecurityJournal

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