Could Ukraine Ever Join NATO?

There was a time when Ukraine almost joined NATO, but it didn’t happen. If Ukraine had achieved NATO Membership 16 years ago, beginning with a concrete Membership Action Plan in 2008, could this have changed history?

Perhaps full membership could have helped Ukraine avoid Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

But what does Kyiv’s prospects for membership look like now? At the moment, not so good.

NATO Membership for Ukraine Looked Good Under George W. Bush

“NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters at the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest, Romania. “We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO … it is a matter of when, not whether.” President George W. Bush supported Ukrainian membership too.

This Could Have Prevented War

If Ukraine had achieved NATO membership, beginning with a solid Membership Action Plan in 2008, could this have changed history?

Perhaps full membership could have helped Ukraine avoid Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Putin Believes NATO Membership for Ukraine Would Be Disastrous

This was probably Ukraine’s last chance to become a NATO member, and it is likely that they will never join the alliance. For Vladimir Putin, Ukraine joining NATO is a dark red line. Putin will never come to the negotiating table until he has assurance that Ukraine will not strive for NATO Membership.

However, almost all NATO members disagree. In July, NATO declared that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to membership.

Article V Could Get NATO Into War with Russia

The crucial aspect of NATO membership for Volodymyr Zelensky is the Article 5 provision in the treaty. This is the mutual defense clause in which an attack on one NATO members is an attack on all. Think the 9/11 terrorist attack against the United States in 2001. NATO became the vanguard of the International Security Assistance Force in which many NATO members became committed to helping assist U.S. efforts during the war in Afghanistan.

Hungary Would Block Ukraine

Zelensky is looking for those same assurances for the future of his country. However, all NATO members have a veto over which country becomes a member and Hungary under leadership of Viktor Orban would surely vote against Ukraine accession into the alliance.

“Since 2018, Hungary has been blocking ministerial-level political meetings between NATO and Ukraine as a sign of protest over Ukraine violating the human rights of its ethnic minorities,” the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, DC, wrote.

Orban Is Friendly with Russia

Hungary decided this summer not to block NATO military assistance to Ukraine. However, Orban has stated that his country will not participate in aiding Kyiv. Orban has also shown amicable relations with Vladimir Putin.

Another blockage on Ukraine’s NATO membership is that no country can join if “active conflict takes place on its territories.” If Ukraine joined NATO this year, Article 5 would kick in, and members of the alliance would be required to fight Russia.

My Peace Plan Would Forbid Ukraine’s NATO Accession

There is no way that Ukraine will join NATO anytime soon. My peace plan for the War in Ukraine is for both sides to agree to a ceasefire, sing an armistice, and create a Korea-like Demilitarized Zone. Both countries would have to give up territory – Ukraine in Donbas and Russia in Kursk. Both sides would back up 10 to 20 miles from the current battle lines and hold off from fighting indefinitely with a DMZ administered by the United Nations. The DMZ has maintained peace on the Korean Peninsula for decades. One major stipulation in this peace plan is that Ukraine does not join NATO, and Russia agrees not to attack Ukraine.

Putin has pointed to his fury about Ukraine’s potential NATO membership for years and cited that possibility as one of the main reasons for invading the Eastern European country. There is no way he will stop fighting until he is assured that NATO will not accept Ukraine.

Thus, NATO is a bridge too far for Ukraine. Orban would veto it, there is a current war raging, and Putin cannot stand the idea of Ukraine joining the alliance. Zelensky is doing his best for his country and would love membership as a form of deterrence against Russia, but he may need to drop this request if the war is to end.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.