Key Points – Poland’s Armaments Agency has canceled its tender for 32 Sikorsky S-70i Blackhawk helicopters, a move announced just before the Paris Air Show.
-While an official cited “a significant change of circumstances,” defense consultants suggest the decision is not political but pragmatic.
-The primary reasons are the immense logistical and financial burden of simultaneously introducing 96 new AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, which already requires thousands of new personnel and a domestic MRO facility.
-Additionally, the war in Ukraine has prompted a re-evaluation of battlefield helicopter roles in an era dominated by drones and loitering munitions, potentially invalidating previous operational concepts.
Poland Cancels Blackhawk Helicopter Deal: The Real Reasons Why
WARSAW, POLAND – Timing, as they say, is everything. Therefore, it is less than optimal timing for Poland’s Armaments Agency to have decided to cancel the tender for the acquisition of 32 Sikorsky S-70i Blackhawk helicopters. The NATO ally made the decision just 10 days before the opening of the Salon international de l’aéronautique et de l’espace de Paris-Le Bourget, known more commonly as the Paris Air Show.
Le Bourget is the largest international aerospace event in a two-year calendar of biennial expositions and first took place more than one hundred years ago. The cancellation of the order follows high-profile bad news in Paris for the Sikorsky helicopter division of parent firm Lockheed Martin (LM).
The defense manufacturer has suffered some recent disappointments in the military aerospace market, the most notable of which was the loss to Boeing in late March for the United States Air Force (USAF) Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) 6th-generation fighter program.
Along with the F-16 and F-35, the Blackhawk is one of the most recognizable aircraft produced by LM. The S-70i is an export configuration variant of the US Army’s UH-60 Black Hawk and is built under license at the Polskie Zakłady Lotnicze (PZL) Mielec plant in southeastern Poland.
From 2019 on, PZL delivered eight S-701 models to Poland’s Jednostka Wojskowa GROM special-forces unit and another five to the national police.
Changing Threat Environment
The canceled Blackhawks would have been delivered to the land forces’ aviation brigade. They would have been operated along with the 96 Boeing AH-64E Apache attack helicopters ordered last year from the US aerospace giant.
“In the current geopolitical environment we must focus on the tasks with the highest priority for the armed forces,” Lt. Col. Grzegorz Polak told Polish state news agency PAP, adding that the cancellation followed “a significant change of circumstances that could not have been foreseen.”
This decision was made at the end of May, he said, under acquisition regulations that allow the state buyer to halt any procurement that is no longer deemed in the public interest.
“If the General Staff later identifies a renewed need, the agency will restart the process [to procure the Blackhawks],” Polak added.
Some of the unofficial comments made here in Warsaw since the cancellation of the Blackhawk buy have suggested that this move signals a potential shift by Poland to now make major procurements from European, rather than US, suppliers. That change, according to the same commentary, is due to Polish concerns over a continuing US commitment to the NATO alliance.
Logistical Burdens
However, Polish defense consultants with extensive experience in working with the nation’s Armaments Agency (Agencja Uzbrojenia or AU) and other procurement entities informed me that these political maneuverings are not the issue.
Two significant concerns have led the Polish armed forces to reconsider the Blackhawk decision, said one of the consultants who had previously worked with the defense practice of a leading international management consulting firm.
“The first is that the Apache buy on its own is presenting the armed forces with an overwhelming requirement for resources that will be hard to fulfil, in addition to be extremely expensive,” the consultant explained.
“The Apache buy is for 96 of this helo, which translates into the need for from 300 pilots and trained aircrew and weapon systems operators. Then there will be a need for probably another 1000 personnel to be technicians and flight-line servicing and maintenance specialists,” he continued.
“But that is not the end of the personnel dilemma,” he continued. “Poland’s military wants to make sure they can independently and autonomously service and repair these Apaches, which means establishing a separate MRO site here in-country as well.
“That would probably mean an MRO not just for the helicopters, but probably for the engines and other major subsystems. So, we are talking in combination thousands of people,” the source said.
The armed forces would want to establish a parallel set of functions for the Blackhawks and require an additional large contingent of personnel. The Polish Ministry of National Defence (MND) does not see how it would be logistically and financially possible to take delivery of another, second model new modern helo into service at the same time as the Apaches, he and others explained.
The Ukraine War
Secondly, the war in Ukraine has brought into question assumptions about how a conflict with Russia would be conducted. Specifically, the rotary-wing elements required for an air-land battle, the consultant stated.
“We had previously thought that the role of the battlefield helicopter would always be as it has been planned and envisioned for more than two decades now,” he concluded. “What we see now in Ukraine with the the role of drones and other loitering munitions is altering that calculus. Those developments are the ‘significant change of circumstances’ that the MND spokesman referred to, which may have invalidated those previous operational concepts.”
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
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