Some Western intelligence analysts believe Iran has largely reconstituted its ballistic missile stockpiles during the ceasefire, according to a new intelligence assessment posted by Bloomberg.
The article added that Tehran has probably added new-build Russian weapons to its inventory and reconstituted large numbers of its missile arsenal during the eight-week ceasefire, giving them plenty of firepower to restart the conflict.
Iskander-M. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The South China Morning Post reiterated Bloomberg’s assessment, stating Tehran has about 75 percent of the missiles it had before the start of the conflict and can easily build them up further, according to intelligence assessments.
In a segment on “Meet the Press,” President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. has “totally destroyed Iran’s military.” He further stated that Iran still possessed some drone and missile capabilities.
“Most of the drone factories have been knocked out, most of the launching pads have been knocked out, and most of the missile manufacturing areas have been knocked out.
But they still have capacity. They have some missiles, they have some drones,” he said.
Iran flag. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“I would say percentage-wise, maybe 21 to 22 percent of their missiles. It’s a lot of missiles, but it’s not what it was when we first attacked.”
“Despite all the tactical successes claimed by the United States, it hasn’t achieved its goals of crippling Iran’s defense industrial base or significantly degrading Iran’s missile program,” said Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics.
“Iran has shown remarkable resilience and ability to reconstitute its missile arsenal.”
Iran’s Missile Strength At The Start of the Conflict
Intelligence estimates vary, but the Israelis, who have outstanding intelligence about and inside of Iran, estimated that Tehran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles at the start of the conflict. Some US intelligence estimates put the number at 3,000.
Iran fired between 1,450 and 1,850 ballistic missiles and about twice that number of more rudimentary Shahed-type guided missile drones during the conflict, about 450 to 500 at Israel and over 1,000 at neighboring Gulf nations and US bases and ships.
US and Israeli airstrikes destroyed more than 190 ballistic missiles and launchers while devastating Iran’s missile production facilities and its industrial base.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said that the regime’s offensive capability had been reduced by 90 percent.
Many of the launchers were entombed inside tunnels and mountains during US and Israeli airstrikes. Iran has had time to dig out launchers that might have been buried during previous strikes, but it’s unclear whether they’re still operational.
How Badly Hit Was Iran’s Missile Production?
The piece in Bloomberg stated that Iran has been resilient about rebuilding its missile arsenal. But there are differences in how badly Tehran’s missile production facilities have been hit.
CENTCOM’s commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, said Iran’s industrial base has been largely eliminated.
“Operation Epic Fury significantly degraded Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones while destroying 90 percent of their defense industrial base, ensuring Iran cannot reconstitute for years,” Cooper told the House Armed Services Committee during testimony recently.
Russian And Chinese Missile Components In Iran
The SCMP and Bloomberg articles reference large swaths of Russian new-build missiles being sent to Iran. Russia produces roughly 120 to 140 major missiles a month, including 60 to 70 Iskander ballistic missiles, and 40 to 50 Kh-101 cruise missiles, in addition to Kinzhal missiles.
Current Russian production is keeping pace with its usage in Ukraine, although missile depletion is a concern. How many missiles they can afford to send to Iran is unknown.
CNN reported that, “China has continued to provide Iran with components during the conflict that can be used to build missiles,… though that has likely been curtailed by the ongoing US blockade.
That report was confirmed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun denied the allegations during a press conference, calling the report that China is sending Iran missile components “not based on facts.”
Iran Retains Large Drone Capability
The CNN report stated that Iran could rebuild its drone capability in as little as six months, and not years as previously thought.
The Shahed drone is cheap and easy to build. They are essentially one-way, kamikaze-guided missiles.
Shahed drones are inexpensive, priced between $20,000 and $50,000 per unit. This allows for mass production and deployment.
While the possibility of Russia introducing large numbers of ballistic missiles into Iran is certainly a distinct possibility, the resumption of Tehran’s missile production to pre-conflict levels will take time.
But those import numbers would have to be very high to bring Iran back to within 75 percent of its pre-conflict stockpiles. But one thing that is certainly correct: the Iranians used the ceasefire and the stoppage of US airstrikes to replenish their stock of missiles and drones.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
