PUBLISHED on August 8, 2025, 12:09 PM EDT – Key Points and Summary – President Trump’s strategy to end the Ukraine war by crippling Russia’s economy through “secondary tariffs” on its oil partners faces a critical test as a key deadline passes.
-Trump believes collapsing oil prices will force Putin to capitulate. While existing sanctions have hurt Russia’s economy and reduced oil revenue, the Kremlin has so far brushed off the threats.
-The first major target of the new tariffs is India, which has reacted defiantly, reaffirming its strategic partnership with Russia.
-The effectiveness of this high-stakes economic pressure campaign remains uncertain.
The Oil Strategy to End the Ukraine War
Russia has been under major sanctions from the U.S., the E.U., and other Western nations ever since it invaded Ukraine in early 2022.
The idea of the sanctions has been to inflict pain on Russia’s economy and to get the country to give up on the war.
And while there are indications that the sanctions so far have indeed hurt Russia’s economy, they have not pushed Russia to end the war.
But the U.S. is trying another push, this time threatening Russia’s oil trading partners, such as India, with “secondary tariffs,” which President Donald Trump vowed to put in place by a Friday deadline that has now passed.
“Putin will stop killing people if you get energy down another $10 a barrel. He’s going to have no choice because his economy stinks,” President Trump said this week during an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
The question is, how much have the sanctions hurt Russia economically? And will the “secondary tariffs” hurt Russia in a way that they haven’t been by the previous sanctions? The New York Times this week looked at that question.
“The Kremlin Has Enough Money”
“Over the past month, Mr. Trump has repeatedly threatened to cripple Russia’s war economy if Mr. Putin doesn’t agree to a cease-fire, either by imposing new sanctions or by closing off the remaining markets for Russian oil. The Kremlin has so far brushed off Mr. Trump’s ultimatums, saying it intends to push ahead with its latest offensive,” the Times story says.
Per the story, Russia increased state spending on the military after the initial invasion three years ago. And while this created an economic boom in Russia for a time, “that boom is over,” with economic growth expected to grow 1 or 2 percent this year, compared to 4.7 percent last year. Interest rates and inflation are high, and oil revenue is falling, even before the new restrictions come in on Russia’s trading partners.
“The largest Russian companies are unable to spend money on their development, on building new power plants, building new factories, pipelines, railways,” Dmitri Gusev, described as “a pro-government Russian lawmaker,” said this week at a news conference. “The investment programs are shrinking.”
Russia is particularly vulnerable in its oil sector.
“The biggest risk to Russia’s economy comes from declining oil revenue, which has fallen 18 percent so far this year, primarily because of weaker global oil prices,” the Times analysis said. “Lower revenue has already forced the Russian government to raise its estimates for this year’s budget deficit from 0.5 to 1.7 percent of gross domestic product.”
The India Effect and the Ukraine War
Per the Times report, India has substantially increased its imports of Russian oil since the war began, leading up to the threat of tariffs.
“Indian officials pushed back against Mr. Trump’s tariffs and said they intend to continue buying Russian oil. But Indian refiners already appear to be getting a larger discount on Russian oil to compensate the geopolitical risks, according to analysts,” the Times said.
Meanwhile, on Friday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke on the phone with Putin, the Indian leader posted to social media.
“Had a very good and detailed conversation with my friend, President Putin. I thanked him for sharing the latest developments on Ukraine,” Modi posted to X. “We also reviewed the progress in our bilateral agenda, and reaffirmed our commitment to further deepen the India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. I look forward to hosting President Putin in India later this year.”
An Indian government readout of the conversation included more, including the Indian prime minister calling for a “peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict,” various media outlets reported.
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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Swamplaw Yankee
August 9, 2025 at 3:59 am
Some op-ed is educational, somewhat useful to read. Other op-ed not so much. What do we have above us. Why?
A state with a billion people is referenced. Another state with a billion people is just not present.
Ukraine with a huge population gets no military aid from this MAGA POTUS Trump. With days of huge numbers of attack drones and missiles hitting Ukrainian cities zero USA Air Force help is even dreamed about?
Israel with a tiny population gets tax funded USA military forces on site in Israel flying to stop attack missiles. Israel also get tax funded US Air force help as the USA attacks another state.
The Ruskie dictatorship can go trillions in ruble debt. The ruble numbers just do not matter. A billion people nation will covert fund the ruskie dictatorship. The Han CCP Zi regime will ensure that military supplies, military men and drone/missile hardware will flood into the 1000 year old genocide of the Ukrainian people.
The reality of the sex trade of Ukrainians seems to never appear as a topic in Israel. The 2014 POTUS Obama’s Democrat Cabal greenlighting of Putin’s re-start of the 1000 year old ruskie human trafficking of Ukrainians seems a factual non-starter in 2014 Israeli MSM. 11 years later, what pressure has the world seen come from Israel on Putin’s world leading sex trade of Ukrainian children. The mass abducted children number from 200,000 to 400,000 victims. Even with tht huge number, there seems no one Ukrainian child that the Israeli MSM has adopted or focussed on in the past 11 years. Is there an cultural impediment that only some specialists, say sociologists, can perceive?
The comparator is there. The butcher Putin’s orc ancient genetic ruskie killers are reflected in the October 7th butchery crew. What ancient genetic need was aroused in what sort of genocide expeditors? Just as it was difficult for the Yankee citizen to dig to the genesis of the Balkan war in the 90’s it seems impossible to find a Yankee Doodle Dandy in 2025 who can be articulate about the cognitive categories that the terror and ethnic cleansing of that recent Balkan war created.
One can expect in Israel to see a certain kind of response to genocide whenever or wherever it might be perpetrated. The Balkan war proved that the genocide inside that territory was indeed viewed from a unique Israeli perspective.
The October 7th butchery will linger, hang on and re-appear as if a Halloween apparition. That mini genocide will, however, have adherants ready to annually don whatever Halloween costume will frighten the Israeli citizen. As the world knows, many Israeli citizens are still alive, trapped in the daily horror Halloween crypts hand built by their butchers.
One would expect that the Israeli diaspora would spiritually push with their special insight for the return of every square foot of illegally occupied Ukraine. Pushing for the code word “peace” is actually pushing for the 1000 year old genocide ethnics to receive stolen Ukrainian soil as a reward for their “Lolita” mass abductions of little children. Can the world expect better? -30-