Key Points – While battlefield metrics like territorial control, industrial capacity, and manpower suggest Russia holds a long-term advantage in its war with Ukraine, the conflict’s ultimate fate may be decided by growing “Ukraine fatigue” in the West.
-Despite some analysts pointing to Russia’s slow advance and staggering losses as evidence it is losing, public opinion in Europe is shifting.
-A December 2024 YouGov survey showed a significant decline in support for backing Ukraine “until it wins” and a surge in preference for a negotiated peace.
-This waning public resolve in key allied nations could prove more decisive than battlefield data, potentially undermining Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense.
Could Ukraine Fatigue Decide the Fate Of This War?
In recent weeks, I have argued – based on territory held, industrial resilience, and troop capacity – that Russia is, by most measures, winning the war in Ukraine.
But not everyone agrees. Some analysts cite entirely different data to suggest the opposite. In my mind, the fact that those of us who watch this war closely can come to such different conclusions raises a big question: do battlefield conditions best determine who is winning, or could other factors – like fatigue among nations funding the war – give us a better idea of what happens next?
Let’s start with the current state of play. As of May 2025, Russian forces occupy roughly 18.7% of Ukrainian territory, including key regions like Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, and parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
That figure reflects years of war, and the trend line still favors Moscow, in my books. In May alone, Russia gained 397 square kilometers of territory, while Ukraine has not reclaimed any major occupied territories, giving Russia a clear geographic advantage.
On manpower, Russia maintains another advantage. Despite brutal casualties on both sides, with Russia believed to have reached one million casualties in the conflict so far, Russia’s larger population and ongoing recruitment give it some staying power.
Ukraine, by contrast, has possibly lost as much as 25% of its active force, and cannot replenish its ranks forever. Despite the country’s growing domestic arms industry, Kyiv also still leans heavily on NATO for advanced weaponry. Russia, meanwhile, is producing up to 4.5 million artillery shells annually, amounting to roughly triple the output of Europe and the United States combined.
There are those who disagree with my conclusion. Writing in The Washington Post, Riley McCabe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues that the data debunks Russia’s claims it is “winning” the war. McCabe raises fair points, especially regarding Russia’s slow pace of advance and steep losses. But the story, I think, is much bigger than that – not least because Russia already controls much of the territory it set out to seize. McCabe notes that Russia has seized just 1% of Ukrainian territory since January 2024, an area smaller than the state of Delaware, and compared its progress to the “sluggish” Somme offensive of World War I.
He’s not wrong, but I think it’s worth noting on this point that A) this is a different war, and B) Russia and Ukraine are fighting a different war now than they were in 2022. Russia’s losses are indeed severe, but so are Ukraine’s. And, while McCabe rightly highlights Russia’s struggles, I would ask the following question: is struggling the same thing as losing?
Consider recent developments: Russia just advanced from Donetsk into the Dnipropetrovsk region. Analysts suggest this may be part of a broader strategy to establish buffer zones beyond already-occupied areas, forcing new evacuations and breaking Ukrainian morale. These new buffer zones will also allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to offer superficial territorial “concessions” when negotiations resume – if, indeed, they do – while holding on to his real objective: permanent control over the Donbas.
Ukraine “Fatigue” Is Real
We can debate data, but growing Ukraine “fatigue” in Europe may ultimately determine the direction of this war in the coming months or years.
I do not say this to imply that NATO countries should work to restrain this fatigue to ensure Russia loses, as I am not convinced Russia can or will lose this war. I do, however, think it’s an important factor to consider as we attempt to determine who is winning or losing so far.
The Kremlin has demonstrated that it is willing to endure staggering losses, and as Western governments confront economic strains and growing domestic discontent, their willingness (or ability) to keep funding this war at such a large scale may become Ukraine’s undoing.
A YouGov survey from December 2024 suggests that support in Western Europe for backing Ukraine “until it wins” has fallen significantly. In Sweden, it has fallen from 57% to 50%, in Denmark from 51% to 40%, and in the United Kingdom, 50% to 35%.
Meanwhile, a preference for negotiated peace is surging, from 45% to 55% in Italy, 38% to 46% in Spain, 35% to 43% in France, and 38% to 45% in Germany.
These are numbers European leaders cannot ignore. Sooner or later, if trends continue, they will be forced to respond to them. If things unfold the way these numbers suggest they could, data that suggests Russia is currently losing could become completely irrelevant.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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