Key Points – Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike on June 1st, which targeted Russian strategic bomber bases deep within Russia and reportedly damaged numerous aircraft, is viewed as a reckless provocation that significantly increased the risk of a catastrophic miscalculation, potentially involving nuclear escalation.
-While a tactical success for Kyiv, empowering a client state to directly assault elements of a major nuclear power’s strategic deterrent, possibly without full US pre-authorization, is deemed irresponsible.
-This daring attack, while a humiliating setback for Moscow, makes a negotiated peace settlement even more remote, as Russia continues its grinding advance and holds firm on its core war aims.
A Ukraine Win Threatens to Become a Loss for Everyone Else
Ukraine’s government and fan club in the West are wildly cheering Kyiv’s latest military success.
Their temptation to gloat is understandable.
Ukrainian forces were able to smuggle 117 deadly drones deep inside Russian territory and conduct Operation Spiderweb–a series of coordinated attacks on 4 air bases housing a significant portion of the Kremlin’s strategic bomber fleet.
Estimates about the extent of the resulting damage vary widely, with the Ukrainian government at the high end of the range claiming that 40 aircraft were destroyed or severely damaged.
Whatever the final figure turns out to be, there is little doubt that the Russian military has suffered a humiliating setback.
Russia’s Pearl Harbor Sets a Dangerous Precedent
Indeed, Kyiv and its backers are calling the attack “Russia’s Pearl Harbor .”
There are compelling reasons, though, for a more sober response to this episode on the part of the United States and its NATO allies.
U.S. officials in both the Biden and Trump administrations had consistently maintained that Washington could place limits on the nature and extent of Ukraine’s attacks inside Russia.
Granted, those alleged restrictions hardly seemed rigorous.
In this case, though, the Trump administration contends that that Volodymyr Zelensky’s regime acted without even notifying the White House, much less seeking authorization.
Pro-Ukraine media outlets contend that the administration was informed, but the credibility of such claims is weak.
From Bad to Worse in Ukraine War
Empowering a client state to conduct military actions against the homeland of a rival great power that possesses some 6,000 nuclear weapons, even with Washington’s explicit permission, always seemed unduly risky to me.
To tolerate a situation in which a U.S./NATO client state has gone rogue and acted on its own against a major power possessing such an arsenal would be utterly irresponsible.
Targeting Russia’s Nuclear Triad?
The nature of Ukraine’s target is also cause for alarm. This was a direct assault on a portion of Russia’s strategic deterrent.
During most of the Cold War, the risk always existed that either the United States or the Soviet Union would “launch on warning” if radar images or other evidence indicated that an attack by the opposing side was taking place.
The world came perilously close to catastrophe in 1983 when images from Moscow’s new early warning system indicated that such a missile assault was underway. Fortunately, the Soviet commander on duty had the data double-checked and confirmed that the concerns were erroneous.
We are very fortunate regarding the current episode that Russian air defense units either correctly determined that the attack taking place was coming from Ukrainian drones, or they were completely blindsided and could not mount any response. The reaction likely would have been different and potentially very ugly if Russian military leaders had concluded that a U.S./NATO attack over the Arctic might be underway. As Russian strategic bombers were already being destroyed, it would not have been irrational for Moscow to put at least some of the remaining bombers in the air with nuclear payloads–possibly heading toward the United States or NATO’s European members.
Ukraine Still Can’t Win the War or Join NATO
Even if such a catastrophic outcome can continue to be avoided as it was in this case, Kyiv’s goals for a victorious outcome in its overall conflict against Russia are no closer to realization than they were before the successful attack on Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet.
Coming on the eve of a new round of negotiations in Istanbul, the assault merely made the already dim prospects for progress even more remote.
There is virtually no chance that Zelensky’s government can obtain what it considers an acceptable peace settlement. The Kremlin is not about to allow Ukraine to join NATO. Russian leaders (and not just Vladimir Putin) know that such membership for Kyiv soon would lead to a major NATO military force in Ukraine perched on Russia’s border. Indeed, if one of Kyiv’s other demands—the return of Crimea to Ukraine—were fulfilled, that development would lead to the expulsion of Russian forces from their naval base at Sevastopol. Indeed, it probably would not be long before that complex became a NATO base.
Rather than accept such a strategic defeat and geopolitical humiliation, Russian leaders appear willing to continue waging the meat grinder of a war in Ukraine indefinitely. While Kyiv and its allies celebrate the success of the Spiderweb attacks, Russian forces continue to pound targets in Ukraine from the air and advance on the ground.
Overall, Moscow is winning this war, albeit at great cost.
What Should the West Do Now?
Not even an offer from the NATO powers to lift all economic sanctions imposed on Russia likely would sway the Kremlin to accept Kyiv’s demands. Moreover, there is little indication that the West would make such an offer even if Moscow seemed receptive. The policy momentum throughout NATO is moving in the opposite direction. A proposed bill with strong bipartisan support threatens to impose a new array of harsh U.S. sanctions on Russia.
Given the political and military dynamics taking place in both Russia and the West, any peace accord, much less one favorable to Kyiv’s position, is remote.
The best outcome Ukraine can hope for now is a frozen conflict, with a truce agreement ending the fighting but no official resolution of the bilateral territorial disputes.
Operation Spiderweb confirmed, though, that the Zelensky regime is willing to engage in even the most reckless provocations in its war against Russia, despite the lack of realistic prospects for victory in the long term. Worse, Western leaders are allowing Ukraine to put their societies at risk and enable Kyiv to play a version of nuclear Russian roulette.
This time, the hammer came down on an empty chamber, and both Ukrainian officials and their irresponsible supporters in the United States and Europe can celebrate a daring military victory.
The next time, though, the hammer might come down on a live round, and there would be no cheering anywhere.
About the Author: Ted Galen Carpenter
Ted Galen Carpenter, is a senior fellow at the Randolph Bourne Institute. He is the author of 13 books and more than 1,300 articles on national security, international affairs, and civil liberties. His latest book is Unreliable Watchdog: The News Media and U.S. Foreign Policy (2022).
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