Does North Korea Have a Working ICBM? You know that North Korea is often up to no good. Its military is supplying troops to Russia in its war against Ukraine. They send ballons of garbage and human excrement to rain down on South Korea. Kim Jong Un often threatens warfare against the South, American troops, and their allies. Then, there are the missile tests from ground launchers and submarines. It is Kim’s dream to have a fleet of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles to show the world that he is serious about North Korea becoming a global power.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) just test-launched a Hwasong-19 ICBM before the presidential election and claimed that the entire United States can be targeted with the nuclear-equipped long-range missile.
However, some are now saying North Korea’s long-range missiles might be missing a key component.
Does North Korea Really Have the Wherewithal and Technical Know-how?
The North Koreans are close to this level of potential destruction against the United States and its allies. However, not everyone is convinced that North Korea can deliver a nuclear warhead from its territory to hit North America.
On November 19, the commander of Indo-Pacific Command, four-star Admiral Samuel Paparo, told an audience at the Washington, DC based think tank Brookings Institution that he is not sure that the DPRK would be completely successful with its ICBM.
Paparo was asked if the DPRK can actually accomplish its strategic objectives with an ICBM and even if it has the technical capabilities to conduct a campaign of nuclear Armageddon against the United States. Specifically, he was asked if North Korea’s heatshield technology ensures its missiles can pass through the atmosphere and hit a target.
“We’ve not yet seen that capability, but we just see continued testing towards that goal,” Paparo said.
Kim Is Convinced North Korea Has Crossed the Rubicon
Kim told the state-media organ Korean Central News Agency he is sure that the Hwason-19 ICBM will work as planned. He said that this is the “ultimate version” to conduct nuclear warfare against the Americans.
What Is Required?
ICBMS are not easy technically. The military first needs a proper nuclear device that can be weaponized to fit on a missile. The missile itself must work as advertised. Then, the ICBM must hit its intended target. These steps sound easy, but only a few countries can make it work. China and Russia are able to handle ICBMs successfully. However, these countries have the design ability, engineering expertise, and huge defense budgets to create workable and accurate nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. North Korea still has a question mark on whether it can join this exclusive club of nations that deploy ICBMs.
Bloomberg News pointed out that National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in 2022 that “the question of whether they can mate a nuclear warhead to an intercontinental ballistic missile, fire it, and actually have it hit a target as they would want to in the continental United States, that is something that is not yet proven.”
The DPRK Has a Powerful and Well-stocked Conventional Army
So, is North Korea a regional or global nuclear power? We know that conventionally the DPRK is a huge threat to the United States and South Korea on the peninsula. It has one of the biggest artillery forces in the world that can target Seoul. It has thousands of rockets and smaller-range ballistic missiles. North Korea has around 50 nuclear devices and the capability to produce six or seven additional warheads each year.
While the North Korean ICBM program may not be fully developed and able to reach targets in the United States, Kim Jong Un is getting close. In the past few years, the Joe Biden administration has ignored North Korea. Newly-elected Donald Trump has attended summits with Kim during his reign, but these have not lived up to their promise. Trump will need to engage with Kim in person again to create a new path forward for the two countries.
One thing Trump could do is to cancel combined military exercises between the United States and South Korea that Kim hates. The next option would be to send some rear echelon American troops home. In exchange, the United States would then require the DPRK to stop testing ballistic missiles and allow United Nations inspectors to examine his atomic weapons program.
This type of deal-making is necessary to enter into a modern détente with North Korea. Pyongyang is indeed becoming a global power already. It will solve the ICBM question with further tests, and diplomacy is the only way to slow this state of affairs down. Trump knows this, and he is not likely to allow the North Korean problem to fester and spin out of control during his new administration.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
