Would North Korea Really Send 100,000 Troops to Fight in Ukraine?

Could North Korea Beef Up Russia with Another 100,000 Troops?: You may have seen photos of Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un grinning profusely while shaking hands during the announcement of a new joint defense pact.

As a result, Kim has already sent at least 10,000 North Korean troops to Russia who have deployed to the Kursk region of western Russia for a counter-offensive against Ukrainian forces there.

But the 10,000 soldiers could be a drop in the bucket. One report from the G20 group of nations claims that Kim might have plans to send a whopping 100,000 of his troops to Russia.

What happens if this comes to pass? How could such a move change the outcome of the Ukraine war?

Russia Has More Manpower

Russia has an estimated 470,000 soldiers fighting against Ukraine. One hundred thousand more North Koreans would beef up his forces by nearly 20 percent, which could affect the outcome of the fighting as Ukraine’s forces are already outnumbered.

Ukraine has lost 80,000 troops dead and 400,000 wounded and has only 330,000 personnel at the front. A flood of North Koreans could tip the balance of the war in Russia’s favor.

A Match Made in Hell

The new Axis of Evil between Russia and North Korea had already resulted in Pyongyang providing millions of howitzer shells to Moscow. In return for the 10,000 troops, North Korea will obtain hard currency from wages paid by Russia to the recruits. Kim Jong Un will also likely receive intercontinental ballistic missile technology from the Russians. This deal is a master stroke by Kim, who has played his hand well during the war as he also continues to raise the temperature against South Korea on the peninsula.

Kim will likely send Russia his troops in tranches of about 10,000 each, but if the G20 assessment is correct, he could choose to send a massive complement of 100,000 troops at once.

North Korea Has a Huge Army

North Korea is estimated to have around 1.3 million active troops and 560,000 in reserve. However, Kim’s army has no combat experience, and many of his forces are badly trained and sparsely equipped. The troops deploying to Russia are seen as elite special operations troops who are happy to fight with Putin’s forces.

While G20 and NATO members have expressed their disdain for the North Korean reinforcements, this is not likely to change the behavior of Kim and Putin. Ukraine and the United States have escalated the situation as well. In a shift in policy, the United States is now allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles called ATACMS into Russia. The ATACMS has a range of 190 miles and is expected to deploy against the Russian counter-offensive in Kursk. The missiles will target North Korean soldiers, making this war a proxy fight between the United States and its allies and the new Axis of Evil.

Putin is likely thrilled with the North Korean alliance. He doesn’t have to give much to Pyongyang in exchange for the reinforcements. He has forged an anti-Western coalition that includes China and Iran to challenge the global order. If he decides to enter peace negotiations, he could take back territory in Kursk and strengthen Russia’s position. He also signals the Russian people that winning the war is within reach.

This Will Be a Greater Challenge for Trump

These developments make the situation with Ukraine and Russia more difficult for the incoming Donald Trump administration. Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine and will likely find it more challenging to get both sides to agree to cease fire talks. Ukraine can say that the North Korean deployment means it must fight on and the United States decision to allow long-range strikes sends a message to the Kremlin that the Americans are not serious about ending the war.

Could China and Iran Help Russia Even More?

This raises the question of whether China and Iran would offer more assistance to Russia to forge a decisive victory. Iran has sent a substantial supply of unmanned combat systems to Moscow. The European Union also fears that China may be selling drones to Russia as well.

This Axis of Evil 2.0 is thus unsettling and more bad news for the international community. The longer the war goes on, the greater the chance that Russia will marshal its friends to make a wall of resistance against the United States and its European allies.

Even if North Korea decides not to actually send the 100,000 troops to Russia, Putin and Kim’s alliance is problematic. It gives Kim confidence that he is a global leader with whom to be reckoned. It gives Putin a shot in the arm to take back lands in Kursk, and it makes the United States fear that many countries are against its policies of assistance to Ukraine.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.