Key Points and Summary – As peace talks gain momentum, this analysis tackles the provocative question of whether Russia has already won the war in Ukraine, a claim recently made by Hungary’s Prime Minister.
-While Russia failed in its maximalist goals of capturing Kyiv and overthrowing the government, it has succeeded mainly in its more limited, revised objectives.
-Russia now controls roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory and has effectively blocked Ukraine’s path to NATO membership. If a final peace deal solidifies the current front lines, it could be widely interpreted as a de facto victory for Vladimir Putin.
Has Russia Already Won the War in Ukraine
With the leaders of Russia and Ukraine both meeting with President Donald Trump in the last week, with the stated reason for the meetings being the idea of bringing the war to a close after more than three years, the question should be asked of whether Russia has already “won” the war, or if it will be seen that way should the war ultimately be settled based on the current battle lines.
Last week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared that Russia has already won the war.
Per Reuters, the comments came after Orban was the only leader of a European Union nation to decline to sign on to a statement that Ukraine should be allowed to determine its own future. Orban has been a rare European leader to tilt towards Russia since the invasion in 2022.
“We are talking now as if this were an open-ended war situation, but it is not. The Ukrainians have lost the war. Russia has won this war,” Orban said in an interview with the “Patriot” YouTube channel.
“The only question is when and under what circumstances will the West, who are behind the Ukrainians, admit that this has happened and what will result from all this.”
Obran also pointed out that Trump and Putin had made plans to meet without Ukraine present.
“If you are not at the negotiating table, you are on the menu,” Orban said in the Patriot interview.
“When two leaders sit down to negotiate with each other, the Americans and the Russians … and you’re not invited there, you don’t rush for the phone, you don’t run around, you don’t shout in from the outside.”
What is a “Win”?
Of course, to ask whether Russia has or will “win” the war depends on what the definition of a win is.
If Putin’s goal with the war was a full conquest of Kyiv or the majority of Ukraine, that has not happened, nor is it likely to happen. If his goal was to install a pro-Russian government in Kyiv, that also has not happened.
But if Putin’s goal is to conquer large swathes of Ukrainian territory, especially its Eastern regions, that objective has been achieved, although the degree to which it will stay that way remains to be seen.
If Putin was hoping to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the European Union, that is looking much better for him. Trump himself said before the meeting with Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy that Ukraine can forget about NATO membership, as well as any hopes of recapturing Crimea, which Russia invaded and annexed in 2014. After the summits, the discussion has focused on security guarantees for Ukraine, and how those might be met.
What Objectives Have Been Met?
“When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered up to 200,000 soldiers into Ukraine, his aim was to sweep into the capital, Kyiv, in days, overthrow its pro-Western government and return Ukraine to Russia’s sphere of influence,” the BBC said in a new analysis published this week. “Putin failed but, more than three years on, a fifth of Ukrainian territory is in Russian hands.”
Putin had said, on the eve of the “special military operation” in 2022, that the goal was to “demilitarise and denazify” Ukraine.
The BBC added, however, that any attempts to remove Zelenskyy have not come close to succeeding.
“Putin has long sought to get rid of Ukraine’s elected pro-Western president, and Zelensky was apparently a target from the very start of the war,” the analysis said. “Russian troops made two attempts to storm the presidential compound soon after the invasion, according to Zelensky’s adviser, and Ukraine’s elected leader said they wanted him dead.”
It would not be the last assassination attempt on the Ukrainian leader.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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bishnoi-noi
August 21, 2025 at 7:49 pm
Russia right now (for the time being) has won the war, but the nazis are still alive and kicking, because trump and the others are massively feeding them non-stop.
Russian forces have stepped into dnipropetrovsk, an important step to force herr zelenskyy to finally leave Donetsk region as well as parts of sumy and Kharkov regions.
But right now, trump is totally unsure of what he must do.
Trump must forget the wailing and whining of macron and starmer and zelenskyy.
He must insists that zelenskyy and his Nazi horde leave Donbass and the other areas, no whining.
Otherwise, Russia’s current victory in the field could suddenly and completely evaporate away.
Swamplaw Yankee
August 22, 2025 at 4:07 am
The USA re-started the genocide of Ukrainians in 2014. POTUS OBAMA’s Democrat Cabal Unlilaterally greenlighted the orc Putin’s genocide of Ukrainians.
There is no war. There is a re-start of a 1000 year old genocide of Ukrainians by russkie butchers. -30-