In a recent article published on The Atlantic, author and historian Anne Applebaum wrote that “the Ukrainians are not losing. The Russians are not winning, and more importantly, they don’t know how to win.”
This statement follows a series of analyses by Western outlets noting a shift in momentum in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Su-25. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
After an increase in drone attacks on Russian backline logistics and oil infrastructure, the general atmosphere among analysts in Ukraine and the West has become more optimistic.
More and more are echoing the sentiment expressed by Applebaum; Ukraine is surviving its war against Russia. But how much weight do these claims have?
Has Ukraine finally managed to turn the war around in its favor, or is this simply a case of overly optimistic reporting?
Shifting the Tide of the War in Ukraine
The newfound optimism from many analysts is driven by Ukraine’s renewed drone campaign against Moscow. Thanks to advancements in drone technology, Ukraine is striking deeper and deeper behind Russian lines.
The main targets have been logistics trucks responsible for transporting military equipment to the front lines and oil infrastructure in Russia’s western regions.
In a statement, President Zelensky said Ukraine has disabled 40% of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity. These attacks, combined with the constant harassment of backline logistics, have strained supplies in multiple regions of Russia, particularly those bordering Ukraine, like Belgorod, Kursk, and Russian-occupied Crimea.
Ukraine’s advancements in drone technology have also assisted in its defense against Russia’s attacks.
Su-34 Fullback Fighter-Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Thanks to technologies like Starlink and new AI-assisted guidance systems, Ukraine has managed to build a sophisticated network of radars capable of detecting and tracking incoming Russian missiles and drones.
An interceptor drone is then launched from a separate location and automatically tracks and destroys the Russian munition.
It should be stated, however, that after Moscow’s most recent massive drone/missile raids, Ukraine’s defensive measures still leave a lot to be desired.
The defense systems still managed to garner attention from several Gulf states that sought Ukraine’s help in intercepting Iranian Shahed drones.
Assessing the Current State of the Conflict
These two developments have renewed a sense of optimism amongst experts and analysts. Not only is Ukraine increasing its own defenses, but it is now taking the fight directly to the Russians.
There are three main dynamics currently at play within the Ukraine war.
Su-27 Flanker Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
On the psychological level, Ukraine is killing it, as so many recent articles and analyses demonstrate. Its control of information has assured everyone that the war is progressing favorably and has thwarted attempts to undermine morale among the Ukrainian population.
In the long-range war, Moscow still holds a considerable advantage in its stock of short-, medium-, and long-range missiles of all types.
However, in this battle, Ukraine has also slowly but steadily begun closing the gap with Russia through its innovation in the drone sector.
And then there is the ground war… one of the most mischaracterized aspects of the entire conflict. Regarding the current state of the ground war, Applebaum has this to say: “If the story of the past two years was one of slow, grinding forward progress for Russia, the story of this year is very different. Since early spring, at the start of its annual offensive, Russia has lost more territory in Ukraine than it has gained. Right now, it is hard to see how the Russian army can move forward, because the front line is not a line at all, but rather a broad no-go zone, some 20 miles wide.”
Indeed, Ukraine has made territorial gains this year. According to several estimates, the Ukrainian Army has reclaimed around 303 km2 of territory from Russian occupation in the past several months, compared with Russia’s apparent lack of momentum.
Winning the Information War at the Cost of the Ground War
There are, however, several issues with this sort of analysis. First and foremost, the Russian Army is still advancing.
The amount of territory reclaimed by Ukraine represents less than six percent of the territory captured by the Russians in 2025.
Russia has undoubtedly slowed down this year, but it has still advanced in several key areas of the Donbas.
Even taking information from pro-Ukrainian mappers, Ukraine’s territorial gains this year have been equal to, if not smaller than, the gains made by Russia.
Currently, the Russians are on the verge of taking three strategically important cities: Kupyansk, Lyman, and Kostyantynivka.
Lyman is an especially important city. Its loss would allow the Russians to advance from the North to the city of Sloviansk, one of the last and most heavily fortified fortress cities in the Donbas.
Its loss would not end the war, but it would be a huge blow to Ukraine’s defensive line and would be a tremendous morale boost to the Russians.
The situation in Kostyantynivka has quickly deteriorated to the point that ISW (usually hesitant to acknowledge any Russian gains) was even forced to acknowledge the city’s dire state.
There is Still a Long and Hard Fight Ahead
In terms of attrition, the Russians actually have an advantage over the Ukrainians despite possessing more manpower and material.
In the month of May, based on available footage, the Russians lost 28 pieces of equipment, from tanks, SPGS, IFVs, and other fighting vehicles to engineering vehicles.
Ukraine, on the other hand, lost 159 visually confirmed pieces of equipment. Furthermore, on May 15th, both sides exchanged dead bodies.
Russia received the bodies of 41 servicemen, while Ukraine received 528 (a notable drop from the 1,000 received the month before).
While these do not tell the full story, they paint a more grim picture of the casualty rates on Ukraine’s side than official sources would like to report.
This is not to demean any of Ukraine’s recent innovations or its recent drone campaigns. Ukraine’s resistance has been impressive, and Russia’s slow advance is evidence enough of these efforts.
Instead, this is more of a word of advice to those who are quick to declare Ukraine’s victory. There is still a long war ahead, and for better or worse, Russia has chosen to fight a protracted war.
The deciding factor will be which nation caves first to the pressure, and despite Ukraine’s efforts, Moscow still has a lot of fuel remaining in its war tank.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
