Last night, Russia launched another large-scale missile/drone attack against large portions of Ukraine. The attack featured around 600 drones and various cruise/ballistic missiles, including Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
As a result of the attacks, various civilian and cultural sites were hit or damaged. Amidst the destruction, Dormition Cathedral, a UNESCO site and one of the holiest sites in Ukraine, was struck, causing a fire to burn a large portion of the outside structure.
Typhon Hypersonic Missile. Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.
Official sources in Ukraine accused Russia of deliberately targeting cultural sites across Ukraine as part of Moscow’s attempts to erase Ukrainian heritage and history.
More likely, however, is that the strike on the monastery was an accident, either caused by debris or an air defense failure.
Ukraine War Chaos: One Of Kyiv’s Holiest Sites Hit
In the aftermath of the attacks, President Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting the Dormition Cathedral, which is an important holy site for the Orthodox Church as well as a site of Ukrainian cultural history and heritage.
“It has been confirmed that two Russian drones deliberately targeted the part of the city where the Lavra and the Mystetskyi Arsenal are located [where the Dormition Cathedral resides],” he said in a social media post.
“This is one of the biggest Russian crimes against Christian culture to date,” Zelensky added. Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha went even further: “By striking the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, one of the greatest holy places of Christianity, Putin has forever inscribed his name in the list of the most terrible barbarians in history.”
The Russian Ministry of Defense, for its part, stated that last night’s attacks were in “response to terrorist acts by Ukraine.”
Some have speculated that the attacks against the Dormition Cathedral were in response to what some say are Ukrainian attacks on Russian cultural sites in occupied Crimea.
Hypersonic Missile. Image Credit: U.S. Military.
It was reported that a drone strike on Crimea had targeted the Defense of Sevastopol Museum, which was built in the 19th century to commemorate the defense of the city during the Crimean War (it is highly likely that this attack was also either accidental or the result of a failed air defense interceptor).
Some observers have guessed that the attack on sites like these prompted the Kremlin to respond with symmetrical attacks on Ukrainian cultural sites.
Was the Attack Intentional?
The most likely explanation is that the attack was accidental.
The evidence for this lies in the extent of damage observed on the cathedral. According to multiple mainstream news sources, the Cathedral was hit by either a ballistic missile or Geran-2 kamikaze drones.
Based on the available images of the church in the aftermath, neither option is possible.
If you compare the image of the damaged church to other targets hit by Russian Iskander ballistic missiles or Geran-2s, you would see that the impact site on the church is not nearly large enough to constitute either option.
Iskander-M. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The impact on the church roof appears to be relatively minor, with the majority of the damage caused by the subsequent fire.
There are, therefore, two likely explanations for what happened. Either the church was hit by debris from an intercepted drone, or it was hit by a failed air defense missile that struck the holy site by accident.
Debris from intercepted drones and missiles has caused damage to residential and civilian buildings in the past, which could very well be the case here as well.
Additionally, air defenses over Kyiv have malfunctioned, damaging civilian buildings. The Patriot system has experienced malfunctions in the past, causing its interceptor missiles to strike ground targets.
The PAC-3 MSE is a highly sought-after air defense munition due to its advanced capabilities and versatility. As a next-generation interceptor, it offers improved range, speed, and maneuverability, making it an effective counter to a wide range of threats, including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and aircraft. (Official U.S. Army photo)
Both of these cases would explain the relatively small impact hole on the church roof.
Civilians Caught in the Crossfire
However, we cannot rule out the possibility that Moscow deliberately targeted the Cathedral with a smaller drone/missile.
The Russian Armed Forces have committed atrocities in the past four years, so it is not impossible to assume someone at the Kremlin proposed hitting the Cathedral, which is an important cultural site for Ukraine.
At the same time, though, it raises some important questions, like why would Russia, which is roughly 60% Orthodox, target a site that is considered holy even by the Russian Orthodox Church?
Why would Russia hand over a propaganda victory to Ukraine to rally support for Kyiv? It could be a matter of incompetence on the Kremlin’s part, although the simplest and most plausible explanation is that the strike was an accident.
The Dormition Cathedral was originally built under the direction of Theodosius of Kyiv in the 11th century, back when Kyiv was the capital of the Rus peoples.
The Church is considered to be an important and holy site by both the Ukrainian and Russian Orthodox Churches.
The monastery was destroyed for the first time during the Second World War after German attacks. In 1995, after Ukraine declared its independence, restoration efforts on the Cathedral began.
The monastery was officially consecrated and completed in 2000.
The damage to the Church, whether intentional or not, is a tragedy for Ukraine. Around 58 people were injured, and 11 were killed in this most recent attack due to drone/missile strikes. The number of civilian casualties will only rise as this war continues.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
