Russia spent the weekend and the first half of this week dealing with the consequences of yet another wave of Ukrainian long-range strikes.
In Crimea, roughly half of the peninsula’s civilian population lost electricity after attacks damaged energy infrastructure, while authorities also announced the suspension of fuel sales to civilians entirely.
T-72 Russian Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Ukrainian strikes hit fuel and logistics infrastructure elsewhere in Russia, including in Siberia, extending shortages nationwide.
And after Ukrainian strikes caused chaotic scenes in Moscow just last week, it’s getting harder for Putin to hide this growing crisis.
As Ukraine uses its domestically manufactured long-range missiles and drones to wreak havoc inside Russia, and as Moscow’s threats of continuous retaliatory strikes fail to fully materialize, Putin is left with some difficult choices.
Negotiating with Ukraine now would require concessions after years of insisting Russia would achieve all of its objectives through military force.
Escalating further, meanwhile, will worsen labor shortages, cause further economic disruption, and potentially force retreat on the battlefield.
Moscow is already withdrawing air defense systems from the front lines, and that trend is only likely to continue if it commits to escalating bombardments against Ukrainian cities.
So far, the Kremlin looks willing to continue paying the price – and it is recruiting huge numbers of new soldiers through unethical and shocking means.
Russia’s Manpower Problem in the Ukraine War
One of the biggest and most serious challenges for Moscow is the human cost of this war. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties since the beginning of the war – more than any major power since the end of the Second World War.
Recruitment is slowing, too. Russia reportedly signed roughly 71,000 new military contracts in the first quarter of 2026, down from about 90,000 in the same period a year earlier. Recruitment rates appear to be approximately 20% lower year-over-year, and Russia continues to increase financial incentives for men to sign up to fight.
That slump in recruitment has consequences on the battlefield, but the ongoing recruitment of young men and rising deaths and injuries on the battlefield are having immediate economic effects.
They will also continue to negatively impact the economy for as long as the labor shortage persists. Russia is currently experiencing the worst labor shortage in its recent history, impacting everything from manufacturing and construction to transportation and other sectors across the civilian economy.
And with defense factories already operating near capacity, further expansion is difficult for several reasons.
Desperate Measures for Putin
The labor shortage is a double-edged sword for Moscow, and it means that desperate measures must be taken to find men willing to be killed or wounded in Ukraine.
A recent report by the partisan movement Atesh described how Moscow has begun issuing directives to regional authorities to increase recruitment of contract soldiers.
Atesh claims that men with large debts listed in bailiff databases are being targeted by recruiters. Prisoners are also among their targets, with recruiters allegedly using threats of new criminal cases to coerce them to join.
The group explicitly called on Russian men not to join, too.
“If they try to drag you into the army in this way – do not sign anything under threats and leave the country at the first opportunity,” the group said.
Russian authorities, meanwhile, insist that coercion is not a tactic.
But the reports keep on coming, with some from the Penza region describing how local residents have even witnessed raids.
Witnesses claim that officials stopped vehicles and checked military registration documents, detaining men eligible for military service. Other reports have even suggested intoxicated men waiting near liquor stores were being aggressively targeted by recruiters.
Does Putin Really Want To Do This?
Putin is facing pressure from multiple angles. Citizens are feeling the economic pressure and witnessing massive explosions in major cities.
Fuel shortages are widespread, recruitment is becoming desperate, and Ukraine is getting better at fighting back. Meanwhile, Russian forces are making smaller gains on the front lines and are even said to be reallocating air defenses from those front lines to the cities.
It’s all bad news for Putin, and another mobilization – like the 2022 mobilization that called up 300,000 reservists – risks triggering a wave of public anger.
The risk now is even greater than it was then because, unlike in 2022, the war no longer feels distant to ordinary citizens.
If Putin wants to escalate and mobilize, he’ll need a strategy to ensure that Ukraine can’t cause even more economic pain. That could mean escalating in unconventional ways, or it could mean targeting Ukraine’s ability to manufacture the weapons it is now using to strike deep inside Russia.
But if that were easy, Putin probably would have ordered those strikes already.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
