The Kremlin has officially denied a Wall Street Journal article claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin was pressuring Belarus to engage in hostilities with Ukraine, and in the process support an “expansion” of the former KGB Lt. Col.’s war against his neighbor.
Such a move would see Belarus join as an active combatant, which the country’s self-declared President Aleksandr Lukashenko has thus far avoided.
Putin Speaking at Railway Conference Russia Government Photo.
The WSJ had reported on Wednesday that Russia was planning to once again use Belarus as a launchpad to intensify attacks against Ukraine.
The US daily also quoted sources as saying that Moscow was also threatening to withdraw financial support for Belarus if it did not become an active combatant in the war.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, said that the report “doesn’t correspond to reality”, and Belarus was “our nearest ally.”
Putin’s military had used Belarus as a staging area for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine – a war that is now in its 5th year.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, has frequently said in recent months that he has information indicating Moscow is trying to drag Minsk deeper into the conflict.
Zelenskiy is also not the only European leader who is warning that Belarus could be preparing to attack Ukraine – acting as Moscow’s surrogate in the process.
Warnings From the EU
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said he had spoken by phone for 90 minutes last month with French President Emmanuel Macron on the subject.
Macron told him that Paris had information that Belarus was planning to become more actively involved in the war.
Lukashenko said Macron had warned him against any such course of action. An aide to Macron also confirmed the substance of the call and said that the French president “emphasized the risks Belarus faces if it allows itself to be drawn into Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.”
Warnings from the French President may, however, be insufficient to override Putin’s influence on the Belarusian self-declared president.
Moscow is the dominant party in the relationship between the two, but Russia is also dependent on Belarus.
Putin New Year’s Message. Image Credit: Russian Government.
The former Soviet republic has two large refineries that process Russian crude and then sell petrol, jet fuel, and diesel back to Russia.
And that dependence is increasing rapidly. Sources who spoke to the WSJ say that in the first five months of 2026, rail shipments from Belarusian refineries of petrol to be sold on the Russian market increased by nearly 13 times and have surpassed 270,000 tons.
Shipments of Belarusian diesel tripled during the same period, reaching 179,000 tons.
Fuel shortages have become a problem in many parts of Russia this year due to Ukraine’s increased attacks on Russian oil refineries.
As of this month, 22 regions of Russia are experiencing shortages of petrol, diesel, and aviation kerosene due to the many Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil industry.
Cutting Off Relays
Part of the tensions between Belarus and Ukraine has nothing to do with any plans for a Russian invasion but instead is due to Zelenskiy’s last Friday accusing Belarus of operating signal relay stations that guide Russian drones to targets in Ukraine.
He gave Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko one week to remove these relay stations, which are situated close to the border with Ukraine, and added that “if he doesn’t, we’ll do it.”
The implication was clear.
Belarus must remove these electronic support networks that permit Russia to extend the range of their drones – somewhat like a booster router extends the range of a wi-fi signal – or face the possibility of Ukrainian attacks on the towers where they are mounted.
On Wednesday, Zelenskiy claimed the relay stations “stopped working” following his ultimatum to Lukashenko, meaning they had been switched off temporarily.
But he followed up by saying, “For now, I have no idea if they removed them or not. But we are working on it.”
The overall assessment is that relations between Ukraine and Belarus, which is widely regarded as a puppet state of Moscow, are suspended in mid-air.
Putin would obviously favor Belarus adopting a more confrontational position, but with the former KGB agent’s influence waning and his military’s performance in the war with Ukraine, this seems like an unlikely risk for Lukashenko to take.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, with a specialization in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
