Will Putin Test NATO? – Struggling under the weight of Ukraine’s “long-range sanctions” campaign, which is raising the cost of sustaining the Russian invasion by striking critical energy and logistics infrastructure, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly weighing the possibility of launching a limited attack against NATO territory as early as this fall. Reports this week reveal how U.S. intelligence assessments now believe that Moscow could be prepared to risk a controlled escalation as it seeks to take full control of the Donbas region of Ukraine.
What We Know
Tu-160 Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russian Air Force Bomber Tu-160. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The news that Putin may be prepared to test NATO was first reported by The Wall Street Journal on August 7, citing U.S. officials familiar with the latest intelligence assessments. Those assessments are based on recent intelligence analysis examining how the Kremlin’s strategic calculations could be changing with evolving war dynamics – notably, Ukraine’s heavy use of long-range, domestically made drones and missiles.
According to the new assessment, Moscow may choose from a range of options to signal its commitment to successfully achieving its goals in Ukraine, including cyberattacks, sabotage, incursions via armed proxy groups, or a limited conventional military operation that involves an alliance member.
And while officials do not believe Moscow is seeking a full war with NATO, they do fear that Putin may determine that the alliance is politically divided enough to hesitate before invoking Article 5, the mutual defense clause that compels members to respond collectively to an assault.
The intelligence doesn’t indicate that such an attack is immediate, or indeed that it will even happen — but it is a departure from previous U.S. assessments, which generally held that Russia would seek to avoid provoking NATO while remaining heavily committed to achieving its goals in Ukraine.
Instead, today, Moscow’s calculations may now have changed as the war drags on and Ukraine’s long-range strikes create mounting pressure for the Kremlin to make serious gains.
The Most Likely Pressure Points
Although U.S. officials have not publicly identified any specific target for Moscow, the most likely development analysts have discussed for some time is an incursion along NATO’s eastern flank. It would be the ideal testing ground for a limited confrontation with the alliance.
The Baltic states and northeastern Poland could be the most likely pressure points, particularly the Suwałki Gap, a narrow stretch of territory linking Poland and Lithuania. It is NATO’s only land connection to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
It’s a corridor that lies between the heavily militarized Russian Kexclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus, Moscow’s closest military ally. It is, therefore, one of the most sensitive geographic chokepoints in Europe, and potentially the best bet for Russia to test the waters with a limited incursion.
But what would be the point? Well, for years, Western defense planners have examined scenarios in which Russia attempts to seize limited territory or temporarily sever NATO’s access to the Baltics. Such a move could force the alliance to choose between escalating militarily and risking a wider conflict, or simply accepting a limited Russian victory.
Putin Wants A Political Victory
There’s also the possibility that any Russian operation against NATO would not be an attempt to gain territory, but to make political victories – or even force the West to make concessions over Moscow’s demands in Ukraine.
A limited incursion into NATO territory would test whether Washington and its allies in Europe are prepared to respond militarily to a small incursion. If NATO hesitated following an attack, even briefly, then Moscow would assess that it had exposed weaknesses within the alliance.
It would undermine confidence in the United States’ security guarantees across Europe, and it could even force NATO members to reconsider their opposition to Russian efforts to take control over eastern Ukraine – not just over fears that it could escalate, but because NATO is in a sub-optimal position to fight a long-term war.
The Ukraine War Is Changing Russia’s Thinking
The intelligence warning comes as Russia faces mounting political and economic pressure caused by long-range Ukrainian strikes. And, while Russian ballistic missile strikes risk causing so much damage in Ukraine that Kyiv may ultimately assess that the long-range strikes are not worth it, Russia is still grappling with a domestic oil supply crisis. That, along with the economic problems it brings and the political pressure from regular Russians now feeling the impact of the war, could soon drive Moscow to rethink how it approaches the conflict.
Even just this week, Putin announced a complete reshuffle of his country’s top military leadership.
Moscow must, therefore, be calculating that new tactics are necessary to ensure victory in Ukraine and to mitigate the continued damage caused by Ukrainian strikes.
Without new tactics, the political and economic damage to Russia could prove truly historic – and to prevent it, Putin may believe that risky escalation is simply necessary.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
