Oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again. Whether it keeps moving is another matter. The numbers, at least on paper, are looking much better. Tanker traffic through the strait is running at roughly 81 percent of its pre-conflict level, depending on the tracking data used.
Kpler reported that oil and petroleum product flows totaled 13.1 million barrels per day last week, down from 17.1 million before the conflict.
A U.S. Air Force F-15EX Eagle II flies over the Gulf of America, September 16, 2025. The F-15EX, from the 40th Flight Test Squadron at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, is one of the first F-15EXs in the Air Force, and is going through developmental and operational test series at Eglin to confirm its operational capabilities before it is delivered to the combat Air Force. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Blake Wiles)
An F-15EX Eagle II Fighter Jet assigned to the 85th Test and Evaluation Squadron, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, taxis out from Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Oct. 21, 2021. The new F-15EX aircrafts are at Nellis AFB to test how effective and suitable the aircraft is for future use in our Air Force. (U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis)
Vortexa reported crude and condensate exports were about 80 percent of pre-conflict volume, with a weekly average of 11.2 million barrels per day.
JPMorgan analysts said levels are nearly the same as in early February, estimating that total Middle East crude exports, including bypass routes, have climbed back to 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98 percent of normal.
The White House, in its typical hyperbole, has called it historic.
It’s a recovery, and a fragile one for now.
However, the same week those numbers landed, attacks on shipping in the region picked up.
At least six vessels have been hit in the strait since Sunday, September 28.
An LNG carrier and two tankers were attacked on the 29th. A tanker caught fire on October 1. Another tanker was targeted and struck on an outbound transit the next day, leaving it with a fire and a blackout.
Three of those strikes only surfaced days later through delayed UKMTO warnings. The number of ships being targeted and attacked is higher than what has been publicly released.
So can this last?
The Numbers Hide The Fragility
A closer look at how oil is actually flowing through the Strait right now is reason to pause on the overall situation.
Vortexa reported crude and condensate exports were about 80 percent of pre-conflict volume, with a weekly average of 11.2 million barrels per day.
It is working right now.
But it is more like a military operation than normal commerce.
But these aren’t normal times.
Every barrel of oil being shuttled depends on warships, air cover, and crews willing to risk the run.
But the refined-products numbers tell the real story.
JPMorgan has diesel and gasoline flows at just 58 percent of pre-conflict levels, only about 3 million barrels per day.
That’s why diesel prices remain ridiculously high even as crude flows improve.
The Iranian attacks are following a familiar pattern. UKMTO’s latest assessment found that ships following the southern Omani route, the corridor used for US-facilitated transits, have absorbed 22 of 35 projectile strikes since July 6. That shouldn’t be surprising anyone.
The Pipeline Bypass Routes Are Stationary Targets
The Gulf states, seeing the Strait as a potential blackmail chip, have been rushing to build and expand multi-billion-dollar oil pipelines to bypass the Strait, especially following major supply disruptions and Iranian blockades and attacks on shipping in the region.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West existing pipeline, a 1,200 km system, already transports up to 7 million barrels per day (bpd) from eastern fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and plans are underway to expand capacity to 8–9 million barrels per day (BPD).
Kpler reported that the United Arab Emirates’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, an operational 1.8-million bpd pipeline to the Port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, is being augmented by a second parallel pipeline (which ADNOC reports is nearly 50 percent complete as of mid-2026) to double bypass capacity to more than 3.6 million bpd by 2027.
Iraq is exploring and advancing southern export diversification routes through Turkey, Syria, and Jordan (such as routes ttothe Red Sea port of Aqaba) to add omore than2 million bpd of non-Hormuz capacity.
Goldman Sachs said in June that 70 percent of pre-war Hormuz transit would become 100 percent in the near future.
The pipelines, however, are stationary and easier to hit than a moving target.
On September 10 and 11, drones launched from Iranian proxy militias in Iraq hit pumping stations along the East-West line, and Riyadh shut down the entire system, roughly 7 million barrels per day of capacity, as a precaution.
Houthi rebels in Yemen (another Iranian proxy) have launched several drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi Aramco oil facilities and infrastructure in Yanbu as well.
Loadings at Yanbu stopped.
The Saudis have since restored about half the flow, but Aramco was forced to move almost 60 million barrels back through Hormuz in September and October.
Insurance Costs Have Skyrocketed
Arguably, the most underreported factor in this situation is the insurance premiums.
Prior to the current conflict, war risk coverage ran about 0.25 percent of a ship’s hull value. At the height of the fighting, it hit a whopping 10 percent.
For a $150 million tanker, that’s a $15 million bill for a single transit, against about $375,000 before February. Current insurance quotes are running between 3 and 8 percent.
Those insurance rates are what is keeping gas prices high and diesel very high.
Iran doesn’t need to sink any of the tankers; it just needs to hit enough ships, often enough, that owners and underwriters do the math and stay home.
That is their strategy.
Every tanker that is hit makes their case.
I spent enough years downrange to recognize the pattern.
You don’t have to win the engagement.
You just have to make the other side pay more than they are willing to pay.
Cheap projectiles against expensive hulls and nervous underwriters is about as favorable a cost exchange as an adversary that is weakened as much as Iran can ask for.
So, Is This Situation Sustainable?
Not at the current trend.
Oil exports through the Strait can hold near 80 percent as long as three factors remain intact: the Navy keeps the escort shuttle convoys running, the bypass pipelines stay online and intact, and insurers keep writing paper.
And those are all still in question, despite Iran’s weakened condition.
The optimists will point to the 98 percent regional figure.
It counts oil moving through damaged pipelines, escorted convoys, and ship-to-ship transfers off Oman.
That’s a logistics workaround.
A healthy market looks different.
As for a diplomatic solution, that might produce something.
Right now, 81 percent feels like a high-water mark, at least until the attacks stop.
If the strikes keep coming at last week’s pace, expect ship owners to pull back, premiums to climb again, and flows to slide toward the 70 percent range Goldman Sachs flagged as the new normal.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications
