Ukraine War Update – Here Are Some of the Latest Updates on the War That Just Won’t End: As winter approaches and temperatures in Eastern Europe start to drop, Russia is increasing its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
According to the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence, Russia has already stockpiled enough missiles and drones to destroy Ukraine’s energy grid, and it keeps producing more.
M109 Artillery Creative Commons Photo.
MSTA Artillery Firing Creative Commons Image
With Winter around the corner, Moscow hopes to weaponize the frigid temperatures to force Kyiv to the negotiating table and agree to a peace settlement that benefits Russia.
Against this backdrop, Trump, who has recently fallen out with Zelenskyy, hopes to secure a diplomatic breakthrough before the end of the year.
U.S. Midterms and Their Effect on Ukraine
A recent article in The Atlantic notes three key upcoming events that could significantly shape Ukraine’s future: the midterm elections in early November, the trilateral summit between Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping, and the G20 summit in Miami this December.
The midterm elections will be especially significant for Trump and the GOP. Thanks to the war in Iran, the President’s popularity has tanked significantly due to increased gas prices associated with rising oil prices.
With many Americans confused as to why the war happened in the first place, one of Trump’s strategies has been to attempt to redirect the public’s attention away from Iran at the expense of Ukraine.
Trump has recently blamed Kyiv for rising oil prices thanks to its attacks against Russian oil and fuel infrastructure.
To lower domestic fuel prices, Trump announced that the U.S. would import diesel fuel from Russia, a decision Kyiv poorly received.
According to Russian sources, the first U.S.-bound tanker is set to leave Russia on Thursday.
Ukrainian officials fear that if Trump loses the midterms, the American President may impose harsher punitive measures against Kyiv.
Already, Ukrainian officials have claimed that the military was experiencing disruptions on its Starlink connection, which is vital for the country’s long-range drone operations.
Furthermore, Zelenskyy has claimed that the U.S. was withholding vital intelligence on Russian ballistic missile attacks.
However, multiple White House officials disputed these claims, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessant.
Additionally, Ukraine has also claimed that the U.S. is withholding deliveries of vital PAC-3 ballistic missile interceptors, which are vital to the country’s defense, especially during the winter.
Kyiv fears that if the GOP loses the midterms, Trump could scapegoat Ukraine and withhold further arms shipments or impose further restrictions on its Starlink connection.
Upcoming Events to Look Out For
Two weeks after the elections, Trump is set to depart for Shenzhen for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.
On the sidelines, the President hopes to hold trilateral talks with Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping on multiple issues, including Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin first proposed the idea with Trump during their latest phone call on October 7.
As many have noted, Zelenskyy will not attend. The announcement garnered criticism from Trump’s domestic opponents and other European allies for Trump’s seeming intention to carve up Ukraine without Kyiv’s consent.
Trump hopes to form a comprehensive peace plan at the upcoming G20 summit.
The President has also invited Vladimir Putin, marking the first time the Russian head of state has attended a multilateral summit in the West since the invasion began in 2022.
At the meeting, Trump hopes to present, and perhaps implement, a peace settlement and begin ending the nearly five-year-long conflict. The Kremlin has not yet confirmed Putin’s attendance.
President Zelenskyy is also slated to attend the December summit.
The Ukrainian President said he was willing to meet with Putin, if he attends, to work out an end to the war.
Looking to Break the Diplomatic Gridlock
Meanwhile, the White House’s top negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Whitcoff, have been meeting with Zelenskyy and Ukrainian officials in Norway.
According to Zelenskyy, the American delegation discussed a new proposal to end the war, one that may provide American security guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5 clause.
Likewise, the American negotiators met with Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg to discuss possible resolutions to the conflict and potential avenues for economic cooperation.
These talks occurred before the aforementioned dates, likely laying the groundwork for a meeting between Putin, Trump, and Zelenskyy at the G20 summit.
It is too early to say whether these talks will accomplish anything substantive in the long run. Much depends on whether Putin will accept Trump’s invitation to the G20 meeting and whether Zelenskyy will consider ceding any territory.
Previous diplomatic talks, like Trump’s meeting with Putin in Alaska, promised results but produced nothing of long-term value.
As much as Trump tries to influence the war or broker a peace deal, Zelenskyy and his Russian counterpart ultimately decide whether to end it.
That said, the U.S. still holds considerable leverage, especially over Ukraine. Kyiv fears Trump will use that leverage to pressure Ukraine to capitulate to Moscow’s demands.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
