Donald Trump has made it clear, for the last several weeks, that he would not be attacking Iran before the U.S. midterm elections, which are now just a week away.
At the same time, he has threatened the possibility of resuming attacks against Iran once the elections are over.
JOINT BASE ELMENDORF-RICHARDSON, Alaska – A U.S. Marine Corps F-35 Lighting II attached to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 121 from Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, takes off for a training mission during Northern Edge, May 2, 2017. Northern Edge 2017 is Alaska’s premiere joint-training exercise designed to practice operations, techniques, and procedures as well as enhance interoperability among the services. Thousands of participants from all the services; Airmen, Soldiers, Sailors, Marines, and Coast Guard personnel from active duty, Reserve and National Guard units, are involved. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communications Specialist 2nd Class Travis Litke/Released)
Capt. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team pilot and commander, flies during an airshow demonstration practice Mar. 5, 2020, at Hill Air Force Base, Utah. The team will make its first of 20 appearances at the Yuma Air Show, Mar. 13-14, 2020, at Marine Corps Air Station, Yuma, Ariz. (U.S. Air Force photo by Cynthia Griggs)
According to CNBC, Trump made that threat again this week.
In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump said that a decision on what to do next is likely close.
“Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal? It’s getting to be decision time,” the president said.
Iran, throughout the war, has proven not to be as easy an opponent to “finish… off” as Trump hoped, as the war has continued, on and off, since February.
Trump has not been able to deliver either a peace agreement or any type of military blow that has convinced Iran to capitulate.
Time For Pickaxe Mountain?
Trump has suggested that there might be some military blow that could be struck that would get Iran to give up when it hasn’t previously.
One potential place is Pickaxe Mountain, a mountainous facility that is said to contain Iranian nuclear activity.
“We can read the badge on somebody’s shirt from space, okay?” Trump said in the Fox interview on Sunday. “We know exactly what’s going on at Pickaxe Mountain. We know the other three [nuclear sites] are obliterated.”
Plan of Attack
CNN reported this week on potential strike plans the U.S. could pursue if Trump chooses that route.
The report said U.S. forces are prepared for “new, potentially major, military operations” in the region if the president orders them.
The network cited two U.S. officials who said “sufficient forces” are now in the region to carry out the war plans. The officials told CNN that the new plans would go beyond any “mow the lawn” strategy for maintaining the status quo, and would entail “a big effort.”
CNN’s source also said it’s “a question of when, not if” Trump will order the next phase of attacks.
Central Command and the Pentagon, CNN reported, have prepared a target list, including “energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities.”
“The Department is a planning organization, and its job is to develop and execute military options ordered by the President,” the Pentagon said in a statement to CNN.
CNN also reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, also facing a re-election battle today that could sweep him from office, is pushing for further U.S. attacks on Iran.
“Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections, and Trump did not give a green light,” an Israeli security source told CNN.
One reason he did not, the report said, was that Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir had told US Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that such an attack would harm the elections in Israel and possibly even cause them to be postponed.
Will Trump Do It?
Trump is often unpredictable, and while the officials quoted by CNN stated that he will likely go ahead with a post-election attack, he’s been known to call off the dogs at the last minute when it looked like major military action was imminent.
In the event of a U.S. attack, Iran will likely retaliate, probably against U.S. allies in the Middle East.
The Iran-allied Houthis would also likely step up attacks against Saudi Arabia.
CNN also reported that Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, in an unclassified memo to the State Department last week, stated that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US personnel.”
Diplomacy in Motion
Meanwhile, as CNBC reported, mediators from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan arrived in Tehran this week to pursue a peace agreement, with Qatar leading the effort to bring the war to a close diplomatically.
But indirect talks over the last few months have been plagued by distrust and disagreements over who would move first.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy.
