The Only Way Russia ‘Quits’ the Ukraine War Is If Putin Dies

Key Points – While Russia’s high casualties and the attritional nature of the Ukraine war draw comparisons to its collapse in World War I, a similar outcome is unlikely.

-In 1918, a demoralized army and revolution at home forced Russia out of the war.

-Today, despite signs of war exhaustion and quiet discontent over losses, Vladimir Putin’s firm control over the state and media prevents a popular uprising.

Putin Dies? A potential, though speculative, catalyst for a sudden end to the war would be a leadership vacuum created by Putin’s death. Barring that, the conflict is expected to continue indefinitely.

Could The Russians Quit the Ukraine War Like in World War One?

Although I wish for a peaceful outcome to the Russo-Ukrainian war, a ceasefire anytime soon looks impossible. Negotiations stalled, and Russia has proved unrealistic in its aims and objectives.

Just this week, Moscow said it would not stop fighting until NATO forces are removed from the Baltics, implying that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia would then need to leave the alliance before the war in Ukraine could end. This scenario is a delusionary notion that the Ukrainians, Americans, and Europeans can never accept. That is just one example of how Russia is hindering peace from taking hold.

However, there is a historical analogy that could be apropos here. After the two Bolshevik revolutions that led to the downfall of the Romanov dynasty in 1917, Russia finally ceased fighting World War I in 1918. Russian troops were demoralized and exhausted. Enlisted men were poorly equipped and trained. They were forced to fight, even though arms, ammunition, food, and water were scarce and difficult to obtain. They also despised their commanding officers and refused to obey orders to engage in combat.

War at the Homefront

While there is no current political resistance movement to topple Vladimir Putin and his henchmen, many Russian troops are tired of fighting. The general public frets in the privacy of their homes about loved ones who have died, who have been wounded, or who have disappeared. Parents often know little about their sons and how they manage to survive day-to-day. There are no demonstrations, and television news only parrots Kremlin talking points about the war. It would be difficult to mount a political pressure campaign from ordinary people to end the war. There is no chance of revolution.

What If Putin’s Death Changed Everything?

However, Vladimir Putin could meet a similar fate to that of Tsar Nicholas II, not at the hands of terrorists like the 1917 revolution, but from disease or other medical conditions. There are always stray reports on social media and news outlets that Putin is afflicted with cancer or Parkinson’s disease, and some have said he is close to death. A lone eagle gunmen could also assassinate the Russian dictator.

This could end the war. There is no clear succession plan for anyone to take charge after the demise of Putin. The country would likely freeze, as it did after Stalin’s death. Who takes over after Putin? And what would that mean for the war? The country could become a military dictatorship or, more likely, taken over by the intelligence organs until elections were held. Something tells me that due to the collapse of democracy in Russia, a free and fair nationwide vote for president would be a bridge too far.

Then, There Would Be Serious Talks to End the Fighting

Would that leadership vacuum mean the Russians would finally come to the negotiating table in good faith to end the war? That is difficult to predict, but it is a possibility. Political upheaval would ensue, with many ordinary Russians likely taking to the streets until someone would take charge of the country. They could finally settle on a potential supreme leader who would be more likely to pursue peace.

On the battlefield, the Russians are known for sustaining high levels of casualties and continuing to fight. Millions of soldiers were lost in World War Two, yet Stalin rallied his forces to fight on. World War I was different for the reasons described above, but Russia did battle hard against the Germans during the First Great War in some instances.

Ukraine Still Has a Tiny Chance of Winning Outright 

Ukraine could also “win” the war or at least break Russia’s will to fight. This would mean the Ukrainians moving all Russian soldiers out of Ukraine and taking Crimea back to the 1991 borders. However, this is an unlikely prospect. However, one could argue that Ukraine is finally winning tactically, if not operationally or strategically. The recent drone attack on Russian strategic bombers, Operation Spiderweb, was ingenious and a massive shot in the arm, leaving many in Ukraine enthused about the future of the war. Now, Kyiv is willing to fight on for as long as it takes to seize more territory from the Russians.

The End of World War One for Russia Should Be Examined

The World War One analogy is an interesting one to ponder, though. No revolution is in store, but Putin could die in office. He is not a young man at 72, and after his demise, the war could end as it did before the Tsar was murdered.

The ordinary Russian soldier and his family would rejoice. The invaders are sometimes losing as many as a thousand troops a day in foolish frontal attacks. This is unsustainable unless Putin decides on another mobilization, and he is not likely to do so for political reasons. A new draft could send the civilians into a tizzy, with many draftees refusing to fight like in World War One.

A World War One type of armistice with the Germans was only possible because the Bolsheviks took over. No revolution is forthcoming in Russia, and regime change is only going to come with Putin’s death. Otherwise, the war marches on with no end in sight.

Hence, the World War I scenario is unlikely to be repeated, barring unforeseen circumstances.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Russia’s Bomber Forces

Tu-22M3: The Bomber Ukraine Hit With Drones

Tu-95 Bear: This Might Be Russia’s Version of the B-52

Putin Could Soon Test a Tactical Nuclear Weapon