Key Points and Summary on Ukraine and NATO – Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “pathological fixation” on preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, a direct Russian attack on the alliance is highly unlikely.
-The war in Ukraine has exposed the Russian military’s significant weaknesses and its limited ability to project power, while simultaneously highlighting the massive advantages of modern defensive warfare.
-Any Russian invasion of a NATO country would likely fail, and the consequences would be catastrophic for Putin’s regime.
-His threats are a bluff; Russia has conspicuously avoided any direct conflict with NATO, even as the alliance has armed Ukraine.
The Ukraine-NATO Question: Would Russia Attack?
More than two years ago, the debate about Ukraine joining NATO (again) prompted a new round of discussions as to why Russian President Vladimir Putin has such a pathological fixation on preventing this from happening.
Writing for the Atlantic Council in 2023, former Russian politician-turned-dissident Leonid Gozman pointed out:
“Vladimir Putin claims one of the main goals of his Ukraine invasion is to prevent the country joining NATO. This objective may at first glance appear broadly reasonable, but on closer inspection, it actually goes directly against Russia’s own national interests.”
“The idea that Ukrainian NATO membership would pose a security threat to Russia ranks among Putin’s most enduring myths. In reality, however, no NATO member has ever threatened to attack Russia. On the contrary, Russia’s shared borders with NATO have always been strikingly calm and secure. Notably, this was also the case throughout the Soviet era and stands in contrast to some other Russian borders,” the article stated. “If Ukraine joins NATO, it would significantly increase Russia’s own border security.”
Despite these realities, there is no small amount of anxiety about the possibility that Putin would attack one of the alliance members if Ukraine is invited to join. The question is whether the Russian President is really that self-destructive.
Does his almost messianic desire to make sure Ukraine never becomes a NATO member override the reality that he understands that such an attack would be the end of his Presidency? It could potentially lead to the breakup of the Russian Federation as a nation-state.
The Possibility of a Russian Attack on NATO
Examining the various factors, it is clear that there are significant factors that argue against Putin making a move on NATO, regardless of whether Ukraine joins the alliance or not.
Europe has two factors working in its favor that would most likely deter Russia from an attack on the alliance. One is Russia’s military shortcomings that it has demonstrated clearly in more than three years of war in Ukraine and the advantages of defensive warfare.
On the first point, the war in Ukraine has revealed the Russian military’s numerous deficiencies, including a very limited capacity to project power over long distances. That kind of combat power would be the number one requirement for any attack in NATO territory.
Russia has shown that its ability to launch long-range attacks has been limited to launching cruise missiles and drones indiscriminately into civilian population centers. It also has shown very little in the way of precision-guided weaponry either.
Secondly, the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war has highlighted the many advantages that benefit the defender in modern warfare. In the event of a Russian attack, European nations would be able to capitalize on those weaknesses that would bedevil any Russian units attempting to gain a foothold on NATO territory.
One of the ways in which NATO forces could make it very difficult for any attacking Russian forces would be by constructing barriers like minefields and trenches. European NATO members would also have the advantage of working with Ukraine and being able to utilize their experience and expertise in the use of drones on the battlefield.
Together they could make it impossible for a Russian force to advance, and they could make it even more impossible for that Russian force to defend itself against air attacks.
Putin’s Obsession
Over the years, the Kremlin has increasingly equated the expansion of NATO as an act of Western hostility to Russia. This accusation flies in the face of all the empirical evidence to the contrary.
Putin has been obsessed on this point and has threatened that Ukraine’s accession to the alliance would “cause problems.” He has also threatened that should this come to pass, he would take measures to ensure Russia’s security, but has never discussed any of the details of what that response might entail.
Despite rhetoric from the Kremlin, there is no evidence that Putin has the intent or the desire to attack a NATO member state. On the contrary, he has conspicuously avoided a direct conflict with NATO even as he expanded operations into Ukraine since 2014. Russia also has not attacked shipments of US and European military equipment on their way out of Poland on their way to be delivered to Ukrainian forces,
In short, there is no evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in fighting a war with NATO. There is even less evidence that a larger, modernized Russian military force would be able to make any inroads into NATO territory before being attacked and forced back by European NATO defenders.
Putin’s ultimate mistake that now threatens his rule was attacking Ukraine in the first place. Taking the next step of going after a NATO nation could very well be the end of his existence.
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs and Director of the Asian Research Centre with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
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