Key Points and Summary – Canada will release its review of the $19B CAD plan to buy 88 F-35s by Sept. 22, after Prime Minister Mark Carney ordered a reassessment citing over-reliance on the U.S.
-In fact, the entire deal could come down to one word: politics.
-The U.S. warns a reversal could strain NORAD interoperability, while Canada has already paid for the first 15 jets (due 2026).
-Ottawa may tweak the deal—potentially trimming F-35 numbers and adding Saab Gripens assembled in Canada for jobs and Arctic operations—but a mixed fleet raises training, maintenance, and U.S. interoperability risks.
Reporting suggests the military still backs dozens of F-35s; the final call rests with Carney.
-Again, politics could make this all a very tough call either way.
Fate of Canada’s F-35 Deal Will Be Decided Within Days
The Canadian government is preparing to publicly release its review of a $19 billion CAD agreement to purchase 88 Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighters, following months of speculation about the fate of the controversial deal.
Prime Minister Mark Carney ordered the review in March, 2025, shortly after replacing Justin Trudeau as prime minister, and ahead of his April 28 general election win.
The review is expected to be published by September 22, the end of the calendar summer, per comments made by Defence Minister David McGuinty in August. Speaking during a tour of the Canadian Forces Base Borden in Ontario, McGuinty detailed the expected timeline for the release of its findings.
“When the review is completed, we can take our lead from the experts that performed the review both in the Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces,” McGuinty said on August 11. “Obviously it would be strange if they didn’t look at the operational needs going forward, and I’m sure they’ll have a lot more to say about that.”
U.S. officials and analysts have argued throughout the summer that prior commitments, namely in the form of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) alliance that was renewed in 2006. The bi-national organization is tasked with ensuring air sovereignty and the defense of Canadian and American airspace.
Under the agreement, both countries are required to fly aircraft derived from the same American platform. Speaking in May, U.S. ambassador to Canada Pete Koekstra warned that a decision not to move forward with the F-35 purchase could risk the decades-old U.S.-Canada alliance.
“If Canadians are flying one airplane, we’re flying another airplane, it’s no longer interchangeable,” Hoekstra said. “And so, that might even threaten NORAD.”
Why Carney Ordered the Review: The Politics of the F-35 Aren’t Easy
On March 14, 2025, then-Defence Minister Bill Blair confirmed that Canada was considering alternatives to the F-35 and was actively discussing options with rival aircraft manufacturers. The news followed a similar suggestion from Portugal that the country was preparing to cancel its planned acquisition of the advanced warplane, and came amid historic tensions between the U.S. president and the new Canadian prime minister.
On March 17, Days after ordering the review, Prime Minister Carney cited his perceived overdependence on the United States for security as a motivating factor behind the decision.
“It is clear that our security relationship…is too focused on the United States,” Carney said, adding that his forces “must diversify.”
“Given the need for value for money, given the possibility of having substantial production of alternative aircraft in Canada…it’s prudent and in the interest of Canada to review those options,” he also said.
Canada to Dump F-35?
Canada does not, however, appear to be preparing to scrap the F-35 deal in its entirety, having already paid for the first 15 planes, which are due to be delivered in early 2026. While the anticipated release of its military review could change the shape of the deal originally made in January 2023, it would likely involve procuring and operating additional fighter platforms alongside the F-35.
Some have speculated that F-35 procurement numbers could be slashed in favor of establishing a combined fleet of both American fifth-generation fighters and Sweden’s Gripen, a light multirole fighter manufactured by Saab. The Gripen has been touted as a better option for airfields in the far north, where Arctic conditions may put strain on the F-35 fleet. Operating two fighters presents its own challenges, however.
JAS 39 Gripen Fighter from Back in 2017. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Operating a fleet of both American and Swedish fighters would require additional training for pilots, a more complex maintenance program, and interoperability issues with the United States. While major maintenance for the F-35 happens in the United States, Canada’s Air Force has long lobbied against the prospect of flying a mixed fleet of fighter jets over concerns about cost and logistics.
Beyond trade tensions with the United States, however, the prospect of returning to negotiations with Saab – which originally hoped to secure the contract that Lockheed Martin eventually signed – offers hope for a jobs boost in Canada. The Swedish manufacturer had offered to assemble the planes in Canada – a condition that could still be on the cards should the F-35 deal be altered.
Politics and Politicians Will Make the Call
While the official conclusion and recommendations from the review are yet to be released, reports from this summer suggest that the deal is expected to go ahead. International media has speculated that the Canadian military has already recommended that Canada move forward with plans to purchase dozens of American-built F-35s – a conclusion that is, perhaps, unsurprising.
The Canadian military may have overseen the review, and even originally lobbied for the F-35 deal after hand-picking the aircraft, but the final decision will ultimately be made by Prime Minister Carney.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York who writes frequently for National Security Journal. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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