Key Points and Summary – While President Trump declared that US strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites, a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment reported by CNN suggests a more modest outcome.
-According to the leaked report, the strikes likely set back Iran’s program by only a few months, as key underground facilities were not destroyed and enriched uranium may have been moved beforehand.
-The White House has aggressively refuted these findings, with Trump personally attacking the reporting as “Fake News.”
-This public contradiction between the president and his intelligence community creates significant uncertainty about the true success of “Operation Midnight Hammer.”
How Successful Was Trump’s Strike on Iran? A Leaked Intel Report Says ‘Not Very.’
On Monday, just two days after the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear site, President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire had been agreed to between Israel and Iran. Trump, in a Truth Social post, declared the end of what he called the “12-Day War,” in a play on Israel’s victory in the Six-Day War in 1967.
The following day, after the designated time for the ceasefire to begin, Trump got upset, both on Truth Social and in comments to reporters as he headed to the NATO summit in the Netherlands.
“I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, okay, now you have 12 hours, you don’t go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them. So I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either, but I’m really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning,” the president said to reporters, even dropping a bad word on live television.
“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran,” Trump declared on Truth Social. “All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!”
But by later on Tuesday and into Wednesday, it appeared the ceasefire was holding, the New York Times reported. Israel lifted emergency restrictions, while the president of Iran cheered “the end of a 12-day war that was imposed on the Iranian people.”
A Nobel for Trump?
Trump has declared, various times over the years, that he would like to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, at times complaining out loud that Barack Obama won the Nobel while he has not.
“They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize,” Trump complained earlier this year, while meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “It’s too bad. I deserve it, but they will never give it to me.”
Trump has had various justifications over time for wanting to win the Nobel, from his efforts, so far unsuccessful, to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, and more recently for his work in bringing about the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as well as for the Abraham Accords, which were agreed to late in his first term. He also claimed he wanted the Nobel for his part in a recent peace agreement between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize multiple times, including by Republican members of Congress.
However, the barrier to entry for such nominations isn’t very high. Per the Nobel Prize’s official website, nominations “may be submitted by any person who meets the nomination criteria,” which includes “members of national assemblies and national governments,” as well as of various other organizations. In 2024, 286 candidates were nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize,
It would appear unlikely that Trump will get his wish, as people who win the Nobel Peace Prize tend not to spend years begging for it or complaining that they haven’t gotten it yet.
Destroyed or Not Destroyed?
And while the ceasefire appears to have held, Trump’s claims that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “obliterated” have not held up quite as well.
According to an early intelligence assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency, reported on first by CNN, the strikes “did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months.” Seven people briefed on the assessment were the source for the report.
It is an early intelligence assessment, not a definitive report. But the White House has pushed back hard on the report, with Trump attacking Natasha Bertrand, the CNN reporter who had one of the bylines on the story, and demanding she be fired.
“I watched her for three days doing Fake News. She should be IMMEDIATELY reprimanded, and then thrown out ‘like a dog,’” the president declared on Truth Social.
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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