How Close Is Iran to Acquiring an ICBM?: Iran has one of the best ballistic missile programs in the world. I have a PhD in international security, and I have trouble keeping up with new advances in Iranian missiles. There are numerous classes of munitions with troubling ranges that put Israel’s cities and American military installations in the Middle East in range.
But how close is Iran to having an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile? An Iranian ICBM, with a nuclear warhead mated to it, would be the ultimate redline for the United States.
Iran Has the Technological Prowess
Iran is close to acquiring a nuclear device. Most estimates reveal that Tehran could have a functioning nuclear weapon in a matter of months. Weaponizing an atomic warhead and mating it to a ballistic missile is a difficult step and would require a steep learning curve for Iranian designers and engineers.
However, Tehran has shown that it will grow its missile program quickly and efficiently by pulling out all of the stops since money is not an object. ICBMs also require incredible technology to enable them to travel such long distances.
Iranian Scientists and Engineers Are Inspired by Space Launch
The Islamic Republic is conducting research and development that has boosted its space program with rockets that could be developed into ICBMs someday. In September, Tehran announced it launched a satellite into space with a rocket. This came off a mobile launcher. The launch happened outside Shahroud, around 215 miles east of Tehran. This rocket was reportedly a Qaem-100.
CBS News said, “the solid-fuel, three-stage rocket put the Chamran-1 satellite, weighing 132 pounds, into a 340-mile orbit,” state media reported. “The rocket bore a Quranic verse: ‘That which is left by Allah is better for you, if you are believers.’”
Shot In the Arm
This is a massive shot in the arm of the Iranians. They achieved a satellite in orbit with a solid-fuel rocket (not the less desirable liquid-fuel), which is no ordinary feat. Then, they can collect data on how to fashion an ICBM someday. Tehran can also claim that the launch was for peaceful purposes and has nothing to do with ballistic missiles, something that has the United States seething, but it cannot stop.
Space Rockets Make the ICBM Quest More Achievable
Space rockets can “shorten the timeline” for Iran to achieve an ICBM, according to U.S. intelligence. Technologies are similar between space launch rockets and long-range ballistic missiles.
The next gambit that Iran could try to develop an ICBM is to work with North Korea. The DRPK has an ultra-long-range missile in the Hwasong series of missile systems. Having been tested in various types, including liquid-fueled and solid-fueled, this would be a technology Iran would love to get its hands on. And even more worrying, North Korea has been perfecting this technology since its first series of launches at ICBM distance in 2017.
Making matters even worse, we know North Korea and Iran have been working jointly on missile technology for decades now.
Two-Pronged Strategy
Thus, Iran has a two-pronged strategy for acquiring an ICBM. It will improve its program to send satellites into higher orbits. The research and development for what it calls a “peaceful” effort can be used for ICBM advancement. Meanwhile, it can partner with North Korea to acquire long-range missiles and transfer ICBM technology from the DPRK. It is hard for the international community to stop these efforts.
The road to Iran acquiring an ICBM will be difficult but not impossible, and it is only a matter of time. Weaponizing the ICBM with a nuclear warhead will be a long road as well. But if Iran can place a satellite in space, it can certainly acquire a nuclear-tipped ICBM someday.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
Zhduny
October 15, 2024 at 7:34 pm
The next war, or ww3, will be fought with nukes…so, naturally, Iran is doing some early homework.
However, ICBMs are slowly getting or becoming long in the tooth, especially with USA now frenziedly militarizing space.
Even US Army now muscling in on America’s already super duper space capabilities.
So, the reply is also to develop hypersonic cruise missiles. Along with ICBMs.
A swarm of hypersonic cruise missiles will overwhelm air defense systems and allow a knockout punch to be delivered.
By a large cruise missile with a thermo warhead.
That’s a sort of poor man’s nuke deterrent.
A rich man’s deterrent would be a fleet or fleets of spacebombers and FOBS-capable glider vehicles.
Homework must be done now or today. Immediately !
pagar
October 16, 2024 at 7:33 am
Iran needs to have a deep look at north korea’s haeil underwater drone especially its potential to disrupt things in the gulf of aqaba for example.
How many countries have an underwater drone that swims like a mark 48 torpedo on steroids.
When you have such an underwater drone, the galactic empire will need to think twice before sending its $13bil aircraff carrier to somewhere near your maritime region.