Key Points and Summary – In a hypothetical matchup between France’s 4.5-generation Dassault Rafale and China’s 5th-generation J-20 “Mighty Dragon,” the Chinese stealth fighter would likely emerge victorious.
-While the combat-proven Rafale is more maneuverable and has a cannon for close-range dogfights, the J-20 holds decisive advantages in stealth, speed, and service ceiling.
-This “see-first, shoot-first” capability would allow it to engage from beyond visual range.
-The Rafale’s recent poor combat performance against the less-advanced J-10C fighter further underscores the technological and tactical advantages that would give the J-20 the win.
The J-20 Mighty Dragon Versus the Dassault Rafale
Due to extensive reader interest, the National Security Journal aims to present potential match-ups between different types of fighter jets.
This gives you an idea of how each airplane could survive against the others in battle.
The name of the game will be how jets from the West stack up against fighters from China. Today, I’ll examine a potential showdown between the fourth-generation “+” Dassault Rafale from France versus the fifth-generation J-20 from China.
First Look at the Match-up
The Rafale may have an edge in maneuverability, while the J-20 is stealthier and more survivable against beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles.
The J-20 can fly faster at a higher altitude. The Mighty Dragon would be able to close on the Rafale without discovery and launch missiles first, while the Dassault model could recover and engage the J-20 with its onboard cannon.
The Rafale Had a Recent Difficulty in a Huge Battle
However, the Rafale struggled recently in a nighttime dogfight between India and Pakistan in May.
This was one of the largest aerial dogfights in decades, involving around 110 fighter jets. India was operating the Rafales, while Pakistan was deploying the less sophisticated Chinese J-10Cs. But the J-10Cs shot down at least two Rafales, maybe more.
The French-made jets succumbed to the Chinese-made PL-15 missiles fired by the Vigorous Dragons. The Indians never knew what hit them.
Four for Four Hits From the PL-15 Missiles
The J-20 can carry four PL-15 missiles. That means the Mighty Dragon could destroy four Rafales in a head-to-head match-up. Countries that fly the Rafale were alarmed at the Indian-Pakistani dogfight.
Were the Rafale pilots just having a bad day?
Were they less skilled than the Pakistani pilots?
Or were the J-10Cs much better than the Rafales?
These questions have gone through the minds of Western battle planners and intelligence analysts. China was overjoyed with the performance of the J-10C. The Vigorous Dragon is not even the best airplane in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).
If the J-10C had so much luck against France’s best jet, what does that mean for the J-20? First, the J-20 has better engines than the Rafale. The two Xian WS-10 afterburning turbofan engines provide more thrust, enabling valiant acceleration.
The J-20 Has Better Ceiling and Speed
The Mighty Dragon’s ceiling is 66,000 feet, while the Rafale can only hit an altitude of 52,000 feet. The WS-10s also create a better range than the Rafale.
The J-20 has a top speed of at least Mach 2, with some sources revealing that it could reach Mach 2.25. The Rafale’s maximum velocity is MACH 1.8
However, the stealthiness isn’t great. There is an issue regarding the J-20’s ability to evade radar.
The American F-22s and F-35s possess superior stealth capabilities. But that may not matter in a head-to-head matchup against the Rafale. Pilots on the French-made jet would not be able to spot, identify, and track the J-20 until it’s too late.
However, the Rafale might have the edge in maneuverability and climbing ability. The Rafale has a slight advantage in terms of reaching altitude quickly. That means an experienced pilot could evade the valuable PL-15 missiles if he spotted them.
Unfortunately, the Indian Rafale aviators were unable to establish an escape route against the PL-15s. The stealthy J-20s then would have the upper hand.
Watch Out for the Rafale’s Cannon
Fortunately, for the French, they equipped the Rafale with a gun. There is a 30mm GIAT 30/M791 autocannon with 125 rounds of ammunition. The J-20 has no gun. That means the Rafale pilot, should he outmaneuver the Chinese aviator, could switch to guns in a pinch and take down the J-20.
The PLAAF believes its Mighty Dragon is an air superiority fighter, comparable to the F-22, and can potentially knock down a fourth-generation airplane with missiles alone.
The Rafale has seen combat now in other theaters. It has been used in Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria. Meanwhile, the Chinese pilots have no war experience, and the J-20 is untested.
We do not know how the Mighty Dragon’s stealth would work out in a fight. Chinese pilots could have less skill than Rafale aviators.
The first step the Rafale would need during combat with the J-20 would be identifying it from maximum distance despite the radar-evasion capability. Could sensors and radar sniff out a J-20? I just don’t see that as a likelihood. The J-20 could fire missiles first. It would not even need guns. We know the Mighty Dragon is faster too. Those engines can deliver the goods.
The PL-15 missiles are top-notch. However, the Rafale comes loaded with MICA and Meteor missiles. These could surprise a J-20 pilot.
Despite the modern weapons, the Dassault Rafale would have distinct disadvantages when confronting a J-20. The Chinese PL-15 missile has already proven effective against the Rafale. The French-made fighter has more battle experience than the J-20, but the stealthiness against the Rafale is a foregone conclusion.
In 2 Words: Stealth Wins
My money is on the Chinese-built fighter. The Rafale is not fast enough to outclass the Mighty Dragon. It has shown poor performance lately. However, the West has learned lessons from the Indian-Pakistani dogfight.
There may be ways to avoid the PL-15 now with better intelligence analysis on its performance, but I would not like the chances of the Rafale against the J-20.
The Mighty Dragon is the superior airplane and features stealth capabilities. The Dassault Rafale can’t match that.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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