Key Points and Summary – China’s J-10C is shifting from “reverse-engineered relic” to exportable, combat-tested fighter. Reports say Pakistan used PL-15-armed J-10Cs against India in May, fueling debate over how the jet would fare against U.S. stealth.
-Most analysts argue an F-22 would detect and kill J-10Cs first, though a lucky long-range shot is possible.
J-10 Fighter From China. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
J-10. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-The J-10C brings AESA radar, modern EW, and long-reach missiles, and Beijing is pushing exports—Pakistan fields it, and Indonesia plans 42—though sustainment and strategy could be problematic.
-Bottom line: the J-10C is a credible regional threat that’s improving fast, but stealth, networking, training, and logistics still tilt the balance today.
The J-10C Fighter: A Real Threat?
China has been exporting its J-10 jets, and according to recent reports, the jets are beginning to make their presence felt in various conflicts around the world.
According to the South China Morning Post, in an op-ed published back in May, Chinese fighter jets, until recently, were “dismissed as reverse-engineered relics of Soviet design,” which looked cool but lacked the pedigree of combat provenance.
However, China appears to be advancing its air power capabilities.
This spring, per the SCMP story, the Pakistan Air Force deployed the Chinese-made J-10C, with Chinese PL-15 missiles, during a skirmish with India, which resulted in the shootdown of two Indian jets. It was believed to be the first use of the J-10 in combat.
The May 7 incident has some asking questions about whether the same thing could happen to US jets in the event of a US-China clash at some point in the future.
What Would Happen?
An Aviation Geek Club story published this week looked at the question of whether anything similar would happen if a J-10 went up against a stealth F-22 in air combat.
Eric Wicklund, a former US Navy Operations Specialist, was asked about this on Quora.
“In air combat, there are many things that are ‘possible.’ This is one. The better question, though, is: Is it repeatable enough to gain a reliable military advantage? The answer to this is a flat … NO,'” Wicklund wrote on the platform. “If a flight of F-22s faces a flight of J-10Cs armed with the, arguably very good PL-15E, odds are that the F-22s will detect the J-10Cs, launch missiles, and shoot down all of the J-10Cs before they fire a single missile. This is what would happen ‘most of the time.'”
He made further arguments about what would happen.
F-22 Raptors from the 1st Fighter Wing and 192nd Fighter Wing, participate in a total force exercise at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia, Feb. 28, 2019. Both wings partnered with the 633rd Air Base Wing during the Phase I exercise to showcase their readiness and deployability of the F-22s. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Tech Sgt. Carlin Leslie)
“I know the arguments already. The J-10C could fire without a lock, the AESA radar on the PL-15 could find an F-22 once close enough, and it could shoot down the F-22. This is all theoretically ‘possible,’ Wicklund said. “Problem is: the PL-15 must be launched on an exacting course and bearing for the much smaller AESA radar on the missile (read: small and thereby limited range) before there’s any hope the missile will detect the F-22.”
Where the J-10 Came From
A TRT World report, also published in May, examined how China developed those jets. It dates back to the time of Deng Xiaoping, who created a “moonshot aeronautical programme” to set up an indigenous Chinese fighter, “built largely on local technology that could assuredly fend off intruding aircraft of Western design.”
When his successor, President Jiang Zemin, examined the building site in the 1990s, he is said to have proclaimed that the jet was “more useful than the atom bomb.”
The J-10 ultimately entered service with the Chinese combat air force in 2018. However, it didn’t see combat action until this spring, in what was described as the largest air battle since World War II, in terms of the number of jets involved. The Indian side of the struggle used the Rafale jet.
Exporting the Jet
Pakistan is the only country, other than China, that currently possesses the J-10, although China is reportedly interested in exporting the jet further. According to Modern Diplomacy, Indonesia is next in line, having agreed to purchase 42 Chinese-made Chengdu J-10C fighter jets.
Modern Diplomacy describes the purchase as “a major turning point in Southeast Asia’s defence landscape, and, more broadly, in the global balance of power within the arms industry.”
The deal is said to be for $9 billion, and also represents Indonesia’s first move away from “its longstanding dependence on Western aircraft suppliers.” Indonesia also has Rafales in its fleet.
Another South China Morning Post story, published recently, looked into the significance of that Indonesian purchase.
“The deal, worth roughly US$9 billion, follows Indonesia’s earlier contracts with France for the Rafale and with Turkey for the KAAN stealth fighter,” Ronny P. Sasmita wrote. “This pattern reflects a deliberate diversification strategy aimed at technological sovereignty. Prabowo’s message is clear: Indonesia’s modernisation will not depend on any single bloc.”
Another report after the Indonesia jets deal, by Breaking Defense, found that Indonesia’s ambitions may come with logistical challenges.
Indonesia’s president, Prabowo Subianto, “seems to be lurching from one foreign partnership to the next, without any obvious guiding strategy beyond shopping around for the best deals and signaling Jakarta’s poly-alignment on the international scene,” Euan Graham, the senior analyst for Defence Strategy and National Security at the Australia Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), told Breaking Defense.
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told the publication that Indonesia’s interest in Chinese military equipment may represent a “desire by the administration to forge closer ties with China for various, mostly economic, reasons.”
“To maximize the limited budget, and going by Indonesia’s contemporary approach of diversifying arms import sources after smarting from the past US embargo, Indonesia cannot afford to just acquire from the West—the [Indonesian Armed Forces]’s preferred source of equipment,” Koh told Breaking Defense.
The J-10C actually made its debut at the Dubai Air Show in November 2023. However, Forbes reported in May that China was struggling to find buyers in the Middle East for its fighter jets, despite holding an air force training exercise in Egypt this spring, with J-10C involved in the exercise.
“China has had zero success exporting the J-10 for years, only recently selling some to its close and longstanding ally, Pakistan,” Forbes reported.
Going Commercial
Meanwhile, according to the Eurasian Times, China is also looking to follow its export of fighter jets with the export of commercial aircraft, which will put them into direct competition with Boeing and Airbus.
“The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) is poised to make a debut at the Dubai Air Show in November 2025 with its small C909 and narrow-body C919 aircraft,” the Eurasian Times report said. “The display of these two aircraft, which are widely operated in China, is aimed at attracting buyers in the affluent Middle East.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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