Key Points – The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) would be severely outmatched in a potential conflict with Israel, as its fleet is a museum of aging, sanctions-starved American and Russian aircraft.
-For decades, Iran has struggled to maintain its US-made F-4s, F-5s, and F-14s, acquired before the 1979 revolution, alongside a limited number of Russian MiG-29s and Su-22s.
-While the recent acquisition of 24 Russian Su-35 fighters offers a modest upgrade, it’s considered “a drop in the bucket” and insufficient to challenge Israel’s technologically superior force, which includes the F-35I Adir stealth fighter.
Iran’s Air Force Is Museum Ready and Can’t Fight Israel
The first time I set foot in Iran more than two decades ago was when the Islamic Republic decided to hold its first international air show.
The country and its industry were both hopeful in the wake of the 9/11 terror attacks on the US that there might be a chance of a rapprochement with Washington.
The US and Iran equally regarded the Taliban as hostile entities, said more than one Iranian official I spoke with during that first visit.
At the time, Iran also had the most pro-American street of any Islamic nation and looked favorably at the prospect of the two nations being allies again.
The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force also still operated a large fleet of US-made combat aircraft. These had been acquired under the rule of the Shah of Iran, whose regime fell in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Since that time, the country had been under sanctions and embargoes, which cut them off from any and all spare parts for their McDonnell-Douglas F-4s, Northrop F-5s, and even for the Grumman F-14s – 25 or so out of an initial procurement of 79 aircraft were still flying.
Despite the US making supporting and maintaining these aircraft difficult, Iran’s air force and industry personnel still maintained an affinity for US-made fighters.
Russia had long been offering versions of its Sukhoi Su-27 and Su-30SM to Iran and had been hoping for US to displace the US as the fighter producer of choice.
But these offers had minimal effect on Iran’s industrial firms, and until this year, very few Russian-made aircraft had been acquired by Tehran.
When I asked one of the senior engineers I spoke with back in 2002 what fighter aircraft was he wishing Iran could procure next his answer was “the F-15.”
If I could find him again, I imagine he would still give me the same answer.
What is the State of the IRIAF Today
In the two decades since, not much has changed.
A limited number of Russian-made MiG-29s are now operated by the IRIAF. A smaller force of Su-22s are operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force.
The latter aircraft have been modernised in recent years and have had an entire complement of Chinese-made weaponry integrated to their air frames.
Su-35 Fighter for Iran
More recently, some officials in Iran have finally decided to end their dream of someday acquiring a modern US aircraft and are talking delivery of at least 24 of the Sukhoi Su-35.
Robert Czulda, a Polish military analyst at the University of Łódź and former visiting professor at Islamic Azad University in Iran, published an assessment in 2023 of what the acquisition of the Su-35 would mean for the IRIAF. He assessed the benefits of the Su-35s to be better performers than earlier Russian types operated by Iran – but not much more.
“The Su-35s are more versatile than Iran’s current force of MiG-29s, which were designed mainly for intercepting other aircraft, and Su-22s and Su-25s, which are suited for engaging ground targets,” it said. “The Su-35, which is equipped with the Irbis-E radar station, is a multipurpose jet, suitable both for air superiority and ground-attack operations.”
But these 24 aircraft are not enough to turn an aging fleet of fighters into a modern air force that could hope to hold its own against the Israeli Air Force in a conflict.
Two Different Generations
In an interview earlier this year, Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University, says that even adding the Su-35s to the IRIAF would still be “a case of too little, too late” for Tehran’s military power.
“This is still a meaningful upgrade for Iran’s beleaguered air force and one that it has waited for for a long time,” Azizi explained. “But it doesn’t do much to fill the gaps that Iran will have against adversaries such as Israel.”
“It will be a drop in the bucket,” he concluded.
Other analysts have pointed out that the Su-35s cannot “directly replace the persistence coverage, area denial, and wide-area protection” offered by ground-based systems like the Russian-made S-300.
But even those systems are not part of the equation in that many of them that were in Iranian service have also already been destroyed in previous attacks by Israel.
Can Iran’s Air Force Stop Israel?
As Israel has now attacked Iran overnight, the IRIAF and the IRGC Aerospace Corps will not present much of a challenge.
Other than the Su-35s there are no modern aircraft in Iranian inventory, and that aircraft’s performance in Ukraine has been less than stunning.
The only “indigenous” combat aircraft ever developed by Iran was the Sa’eqeh (Lightning), which began series-production in August 2007, according to Iran’s official state news outlets at the time.
The Sa’eqeh was based almost entirely on the old Northrop F-5 fighter aircraft, the chief US export fighter of the 1960s and 70s, 166 of which were sold to Iran before the 1979 revolution.
After the embargoes the US placed on Tehran, the Iranian armed forces were still able to purchase spares through illegal channels and on the arms black market, but the aircraft have never been a serious threat.
The Museum Air Force
This has been the history of Iranian air power for decades now. The country has been able to keep its fleet of “(Russian) cats and (American) dogs” operating, but it is of no danger to almost no one.
The Iranian and Israeli air forces belong to two different generations – one high-tech and equipped with the stealthy F-35.
The other still flying aircraft is over 50 years old and held together by illegally-acquired spares and reverse-engineered components.
“Not much in the way of a fair fight,” was how a colleague in Moscow who retired from the Russian aircraft industry described it.
This is most likely how any clash between the two would turn out.
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
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