Key Points and Summary – While China is rapidly producing its J-20 “Mighty Dragon” stealth fighter, it would likely lose in a direct confrontation with the US F-22 Raptor.
-In a one-on-one simulated dogfight, even Chinese programmers found the J-20 has less than a 10% chance of victory against the more agile and stealthy F-22.
-The J-20’s primary advantages are its longer range and sheer numbers.
-However, the US and its allies also field a large and growing fleet of F-35s in the Indo-Pacific.
-The ultimate key to a J-20 victory would be the successful integration of “loyal wingman” drones.
Why China’s J-20 Would Get Crushed by the F-22 Raptor
China wants to absorb Taiwan, the small island nation where Chinese nationalists fled after Chairman Mao Zedong and the Communists took control of the mainland in October 1949.
Beijing would prefer a bloodless takeover, especially since it wants control of Taiwan’s lucrative semiconductor industry. Taiwan produces more than 60 percent of the world’s semiconductors, and more than 90 percent of the world’s most sophisticated chips.
So, China wants reunification – but the U.S. supports Taiwan. Making matters more complex, China has also claimed ownership of a large chunk of the Pacific and has constructed bases on the Spratly Islands, off the coast of the Philippines.
All signs point to a possible conflict pitting China against the U.S., South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and Japan in the not-so-distant future. China is modernizing its military, and its air force and navy are growing both in quantity and quality.
The Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon fighter jet was built in no small part thanks to stolen documents that Chinese spies reportedly hacked from the U.S., and that contained information about the F-22 and F-35, as well as the Russian MiG-1.44.
The U.S. F-22 Raptor set the standard by which all fighter aircraft have been measured for more than 20 years. It is still broadly considered the best aircraft in the world in terms of dogfighting ability, stealth, supercruise ability, maneuverability and integrated avionics.
But can the J-20 actually displace the Raptor as the top fifth-generation fighter?
J-20 Mighty Dragon Is A Mighty Adversary
Designed and built by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, the J-20 “Mighty Dragon” fifth-generation fighter carries the NATO designation of Fagin.
The J-20 is a large aircraft, with a wingspan of 44 feet, a length of 67 feet, and a maximum take-off weight of 81,660 pounds.
While early models of the J-20 used twin Russian AL-31FM2 engines, based on the engines that powered the Russian Sukhoi Su-27, later models switched to Chinese WS-10B powerplants. That change was part of a broader transition of China’s fighter fleet to domestically produced engines.
The J-20 has also been seen testing a new and more powerful WS-15 engine. With WS-10 engines, the J-20 has a maximum speed of Mach 2.
The jet is capable of carrying various weapons systems, including the very-long-range PL-15 missile, the PL-21 long-range missile, and the LS-6 precision-guided bomb.
First seen in November 2024, the J-20S is a two-seat variant still under development. It is a long-range, multi-role, stealthy fighter jet that can also team up with unmanned drones, thus operationalizing the “loyal wingman” concept that the U.S. is also testing. Currently, China has between 270 and 300 J-20 aircraft.
The Standard: The F-22 Raptor
The F-22 Raptor remains the world’s best pure fighter aircraft, but its service window is closing. The U.S. Air Force plans to replace the Raptor in 2030 with the F-35 and the Pentagon’s Next Generation Air Dominance fighter, the F-47.
“We’ve already built and flown a full-scale [sixth generation] flight demonstrator in the real world, and we broke records in doing it,” Will Roper, eirector of the Pentagon’s Strategic Capabilities Office, told Defense News in 2020. “We are ready to go and build the next-generation aircraft in a way that has never happened before.”
The Air Force’s decision to prematurely halt F-22 Raptor production after building just 186 aircraft was a strategic blunder that has created a dangerous air superiority gap.
What makes the F-22 great in a dogfight is the aircraft’s thrust vectoring capabilities.
Its two engines have specially designed nozzles at their ends that can move on a vertical plane to vector the aircraft’s 70,000 pounds of thrust in one direction even if the aircraft is heading in another, thus allowing the F-22 to do some impressive acrobatics, as well as take a high angle of attack during an engagement within visual range of its enemy.
The Air Force currently has about 150 combat-ready F-22s in its inventory.
Comparisons Between the J-20 and the F-22
While the J-20 can carry an enormous payload, it carries most of it on its external pylons, which decreases the aircraft’s stealth. Due to the size of its long-range missiles, it can only carry four missiles internally.
The F-22 can carry six AIM-120 Medium-Range Air-To-Air Missiles and two AIM-9X Sidewinders in its internal weapons bay.
The J-20’s radar cross-section is about 100 times greater than the Raptor’s, without even counting the additional weapons on pylons.
So the J-20’s stealth suffers.
The J-20 also does not have a cannon, which could mean that designers didn’t intend it as a dogfighter. The Chinese may view the J-20 more as an interceptor, using its long-range missiles to penetrate opposing air defenses by engaging and destroying enemy fighter patrols, early warning aircraft, and refueling tankers.
The speed of the Raptor is about 1,500 miles per hour. According to reports, the J-20’s new WS-15 engine now puts it roughly on par. The J-20 has a considerable advantage in range, with a combat range of about 1,100 miles – the Raptor has a range of about 650 miles.
To increase the range of its fifth-generation aircraft, the Air Force is working on a conformal external fuel tank for the F-22 and F-35 that won’t affect the planes’ stealth, similar to what Israel did with their F-35I Adir fighters.
China has the numbers over the F-22, which can’t be discounted. But …
Chinese Computer Programs Tell the Tale
Headlines from China recently featured statements from Chinese computer programmers who posted that the J-20 would win engagements 95 percent of the time against the F-22.
However, that is if the J-20s had two “loyal wingmen.” The U.S. is also developing loyal wingmen.
The Collaborative Combat Aircraft program is an Air Force initiative to develop a new type of uncrewed, jet-powered aircraft that will operate alongside and collaborate with crewed fighter jets. These are already flying and being tested.
In the same computer simulations conducted by Chinese programmers, it was reported that the simulations also revealed a single J-20 equipped with eight medium-range air-to-air missiles had a less than 10 percent chance of defeating an F-22 equipped with six AIM-120C missiles.
There is the answer.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
